bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The wild swings on the Euro lend me no confidence in it. Maybe it ends up right but it has not handled this storm well clearly. No model has been consistent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Gfs has been pretty solid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The bet is to usually go with the model that shows the least snow and go with that. 6 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 its coming g back 100mi north tomorrow 125-150 nw tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The wild swings on the Euro lend me no confidence in it. Maybe it ends up right but it has not handled this storm well clearly. No model has been consistent. The fact that it has trended towards the rock solid UKMET lends me to have more confidence in it than I normally would in a model that's been flipping all over. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 All i know is that every model show's me in some kind of snow. So thats the positive i got going here. These models cant agree on anything all winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 SREF mean snow total 9.5" for DSM. Unreal. It actual went UP 3" from the 15Z run. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Phasing systems ALWAYS gives models trouble. Wouldn’t surprise me to see more swings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Can one of ya'll post the 21z SREF map? I'm interested to see how exactly it manages to bring the 10" mean back to DSM. Obviously wrong, but I like to be amused. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Can one of ya'll post the 21z SREF map? I'm interested to see how exactly it manages to bring the 10" mean back to DSM. Obviously wrong, but I like to be amused.This is 12HR mean loop- it's 15Z- but still 6" for DSMhttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_ Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 00z HRRR throwing us a bone in eastern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Here is the plume page -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/For some reason the plumes update faster than the maps Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 00z NAM is a dud for almost everyone. Worse than the 18z. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 00Z NAM looks even worse..... (if possible) ... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Nam looks farther west with the low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 NAM going AWOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Simply amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 If this is a preview of the future of Midwest winters, this is not going to be quite fun anymore. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Wow that nam sucks bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Actually NAM closer to a phase this run. Not good but better than 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Nws and skilling seem to be going with the northern track around here. Following the last run of the gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 ^^ better run- but tongue in cheek as the 18Z and barely a thing here ... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Nws and skilling seem to be going with the northern track around here. Following the last run of the gfs.LOT keeping with the northern track but Skilling has mentioned numerous south runs. Quote from his FB Page " Southward shifting model guidance on potentially significant snow accumulations in that time frame, as covered in our earlier discussion, suggests other sections of the Chicago area may need to be included in future WINTER STORM WATCH issuances should that forecast trend continue. Stay tuned!" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Despite the bad look, ORD & downtown Chicago still net over a foot on the 0z NAM. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Our Quad Cities area members still have some hope. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The nam doesn't look to far off from the last European model posted. Not sure shy its going awol or its that bad. Seems like everyone to our west only cars about tracking storms that hit them. If it doesn't its a bad run or horrible run. Me i love snow. Even if its a bad a** storm thats going to completely miss me. Its still fun to see and watch. And follow up on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 LOT keeping with the northern track but Skilling has mentioned numerous south runs. Quote from his FB Page " Southward shifting model guidance on potentially significant snow accumulations in that time frame, as covered in our earlier discussion, suggests other sections of the Chicago area may need to be included in future WINTER STORM WATCH issuances should that forecast trend continue. Stay tuned!"I do not blame them at all for playing it safe. I would. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The nam doesn't look to far off from the last European model posted. Not sure shy its going awol or its that bad. Seems like everyone to our west only cars about tracking storms that hit them. If it doesn't its a bad run or horrible run. Me i love snow. Even if its a bad a** storm thats going to completely miss me. Its still fun to see and watch. And follow up on.Says the person who is in the main threat on this storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The nam doesn't look to far off from the last European model posted. Not sure shy its going awol or its that bad. Seems like everyone to our west only cars about tracking storms that hit them. If it doesn't its a bad run or horrible run. Me i love snow. Even if its a bad a** storm thats going to completely miss me. Its still fun to see and watch. And follow up on.Is it? Unless it’s some massive historic storm, I really don’t care that much about paying attention to other storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 3K NAM is a big improvement for Eastern Iowa vs the 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 it's all gonna settle in the middle....too big of jump se today, it will come back nw but not as far nw as yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 00z ICON - Very similar to the 12z Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The nam doesn't look to far off from the last European model posted. Not sure shy its going awol or its that bad. Seems like everyone to our west only cars about tracking storms that hit them. If it doesn't its a bad run or horrible run. Me i love snow. Even if its a bad a** storm thats going to completely miss me. Its still fun to see and watch. And follow up on. I do only care about storms that hit me, so you're right about that. I don't really care to watch flakes fall somewhere that isn't here as snow just isnt generally interesting to me. Severe weather is more my forte anyways, and that *is* fascinating to watch no matter where it is. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 GFS trending NW now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 GFS trending NW now. Stronger, farther west and just an ever so slight hair south. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Decent run overall in eastern Iowa. Gives some nice reason for optimism 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Wouldn’t take much more of a shift to being the heaviest bands back close to Iowa city. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 If I'm in the Quad Cities, I still need to see the Euro and UK come nw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Early in the run but the GGEM looks good for SEMI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 00z Canadian - a few counties east of the GFS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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