snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Man, I don’t know what you are on but let me have some. This has been such a boring winter for everyone in the lowlands south of Seattle, and the models are gradually watering down the potential for anything interesting mid month. Really no way to sugar coat things right now. Just acknowledging the incredible blocking being advertised on the models. This month will be cold...the question is how cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Currently an impessivley cold 42 degrees. The second day with really chilly afternoon temps. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 The EPS looks a lot colder with the trough late next week than the 0z. More continental as well. Interesting all of the operational models and the EPS control show a crazy amplified GOA / AK block at day 10 with the potential for a major unloading of very cold air as that evolves. Looking at the post March 10 period there were very few examples of cold continental air making into the Western Lowlands after that date during the 20th century and so far this century. Being the cold anomaly lover that I am I think it would be super cool if we can pull that off this time! Maybe a trip back to the 19th century? It shows a ULL dropping south and then ridging slowly building in... probably a couple chilly days about like yesterday and today and then possibly some more spring-like weather. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Good god that warm pool is on steroids. Keep in mind those are the warmest waters on the planet that are on fire there. Looks like a Nina trying to unfold. Emerging cool anom in the east Equatorial Pacific and warm in the west. Also looks like a -PDO "horseshoe" developing now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Looks like there will be some clearing in the Seattle area after about 2 p.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Looks like a Nina trying to unfold. Emerging cool anom in the east Equatorial Pacific and warm in the west. Also looks like a -PDO "horseshoe" developing now.Could go either way. Descending easterly shear/-QBO favors El Niño, however the IPWP vacillation cycle clearly favors La Niña, as does the timing of the ERW-KW cycle. It could, again, ultimately come down to the nature of the final warming/seasonal transition, which plays a part in setting the low pass RW structure for boreal summer. If there’s a dynamic transition, a number of possibilities are on the table. IMO this is a clear example of potentially divergent outcomes. A state dependent threshold crossing, if you will. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Personally I’m hoping for neutral ENSO next winter given the evolution of the QBO (will likely have easterlies dominating the lower stratosphere with descending westerlies at/above 30mb). Statistically speaking at this range, reducing the prominence of the low pass component in the wave state increases the odds those conduits to extreme blocking under said QBO would be utilized. Too much La Niña under -QBO is more of a destructive interference in terms of how they’re communicated via the NPAC High and the end result is often dirty Aleutian Ridge/+EPO, though it’s not always the case nor is it unshakable. Especially in solar minimum/weaker solar cycles in general, there are clusters of exceptions. But generally, the heavy La Niñas perform for the PNW more consistently under +QBO, and that’s true irrespective of solar, where-as in -QBO it’s more fickle and more dependent on solar and also the IPWP structure. As for El Niño, those conduits to blocking are generally more open with weak canonical/modoki type events but once into strong territory it becomes problematic even if it’s a solid wave-1 without IPWP/IOD interference. If it’s an EP based event or under high solar, game over. Not that we’ll have to worry about this next winter, but raging solar and/or aerosol feedbacks (thermal wind amplification/etc) alone can render all of this inert. See 1989/90, 1991/92, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1999/00, etc. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Light snow mostly right now, not much rain mixed in. Cool to see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 That was fun while it lasted. Have now seen snow falling in 5 consecutive months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted March 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Only one active thread today. Still snowing in March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 But we don’t have that +PMM/+TNH nor the boundary conditions to force it at the moment. So I don’t think we’ll see a pattern like 2013-18 develop, unless something substantial occurs during the seasonal transition to bump the system back that way. That regime is (probably) gone for real this time. Hasn’t really shown up since that SSW in Jan/Feb 2019. There are other conduits to warm summers/winters, though. Unfortunately. I hope you are correct regarding the 2013-2018 regime! Not only was a good portion of that a terrible drought period for California and even parts of the PNW at times, but it was downright warm to hot at times out of season. 2016-17 was a good year, though, despite being within that time period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 That was fun while it lasted. Have now seen snow falling in 5 consecutive months.Out on the golf course today I assume? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Out on the golf course today I assume?Will be soon actually, clouds are breaking up as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post luvssnow_spokane Posted March 7, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint will be our final home. So excited to get into a climate with truly 4 beautiful and distinct seasons! I am soooo excited!!!! If everything works out like we have planned, we will have our house built close to the golf community shown in this video: 10 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Just had another quick snow shower. 37 degrees. .11” on the day so far. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint will be our final home. So excited to get into a climate with truly 4 beautiful and distinct seasons! I am soooo excited!!!! If everything works out like we have planned, we will have our house built close to the golf community shown in this video: 1e04526ff5c512aeaa66e6ff7263bc77.jpeg Sandpoint_Idaho.jpgCongrats!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Really strong cell with a very visible rotation on radar moving towards Vancouver BC. Some heavy showers moving into the Puget sound region too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 The 18z GFS delivers some legit continental cold before day 10. Still liking the chances of challenging the post March 10 benchmark for cold in the Western Lowlands in at least the past 50 years and possibly much further back than that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Really strong cell with a very visible rotation on radar moving towards Vancouver BC. Some heavy showers moving into the Puget sound region too. Pretty dynamic / cold air mass we are in. Late afternoon temps in the low 40s this deep into March is pretty decent and the 500mb pattern isn't as pretty as what looks to be coming later on. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint will be our final home. So excited to get into a climate with truly 4 beautiful and distinct seasons! I am soooo excited!!!! If everything works out like we have planned, we will have our house built close to the golf community shown in this video: 1e04526ff5c512aeaa66e6ff7263bc77.jpegSandpoint_Idaho.jpg Very cool. I would hate having to go through apartment phase, but it sound like that will be short lived. My wife is finally beyond convinced we have to get out of here too. Just going to make the best of it until that happens. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Pretty dynamic / cold air mass we are in. Late afternoon temps in the low 40s this deep into March is pretty decent and the 500mb pattern isn't as pretty as what looks to be coming later on. Rain snow mix here in Tacoma pretty chilly. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 It appears the models are finally in a nice little groove showing some really nice blocking during week 2. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Rain snow mix here in Tacoma pretty chilly. I think a lot of places could see some wet snow. I'm really looking forward to the cold nights coming up the next few days. Some low to mid 20s look to be in the cards. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 48 right now in Portland. Chilly for March but we’ve had a good amount of sun today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Very cool. I would hate having to go through apartment phase, but it sound like that will be short lived. My wife is finally beyond convinced we have to get out of here too. Just going to make the best of it until that happens.Is your wife a snow fanatic as well? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 The 18z GFS delivers some legit continental cold before day 10. Still liking the chances of challenging the post March 10 benchmark for cold in the Western Lowlands in at least the past 50 years and possibly much further back than that. It's almost as if you're looking at different models than everybody else. You're setting yourself up to be massively dissapointed. Verbatim the Euro operational looks solidly chilly but not remotely close to historic, and that's the coldest solution any model is showing right now. It's also been getting pushed back and watered down the last few days which has been the theme all winter. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Haven’t gotten out of the 30’s so far today. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 It's almost as if you're looking at different models than everybody else. You're setting yourself up to be massively dissapointed. Verbatim the Euro operational looks solidly chilly but not remotely close to historic, and that's the coldest solution any model is showing right now. It's also been getting pushed back and watered down the last few days which has been the theme all winter. Totally agree. There has been hyping of the long range models since November and they have screwed us every single time except once and that was only for Seattle northward. And they are clearing backing off this time again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 I think a lot of places could see some wet snow. Precip is winding down it appears... this the last batch of precip now and its breaking up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 To illlustrate the model trends look at the difference for next weekend now that its within a week away... This was the GFS just a few days ago for next weekend: And here is that the latest run shows for the same time: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 48 right now in Portland. Chilly for March but we’ve had a good amount of sun today.Thanks for making sure they hit 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Good lord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Good lord I thought you were golfing? Looks like it sunny out there now... get going! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 I thought you were golfing? Looks like it sunny out there now... get going!Already went, just 9 holes today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Totally agree. There has been hyping of the long range models since November and they have screwed us every single time except once and that was only for Seattle northward. And they are clearing backing off this time again.Yeah just looked and after scanning the forum I was excited to see the 18z. Not really anything to look at. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Going to service the mower next weekend and get it ready for the season. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Flakes are still coming down, it's just far too warm to stick on anything. There is no evidence of that 1" that fell earlier. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I got youThanks, Timmy appreciate it. Well we did have one decent hail shower/storm around 2:20 PM which did accumulate just a nad. Better than nothing. Quite an impressive trough on the 12z EURO Op. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Band moving out now... that might be the end of precip here and for the Seattle area until maybe Friday if we are lucky. Of course there will still be c-zone up north this evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Major hail! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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