July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Phil]

When it’s 88/73 at 930AM

[iFred]

9 hours ago, Cloud said:

Anyone with window seats got quite a treat heading into LAX last night. Near the end of the video when the plane is nearing touchdown is a thing of beauty. happy birthday America! 
 

 

Is there a shot that Massimo has never gotten? Gotten as in just taken from other people and reposted it for clout and internet points.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

When it’s 88/73 at 930AM

Me driving to work this morning in the jeep with no roof and doors and its 43F outside. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Hello all and have been hanging in Az.  Temps 90-110 (pending if I’m in the valley or not) but always breezy which really helps. 
monsoon season held up because of the ridge down here so nothing exciting going on weather wise. I’m just enjoying friends and also out exploring.  
looks likes it’s been gorgeous back home as well according to my nest cams.  
Pink Coral Sand Dunes and Buckskin Gulch  

[Phil]

15 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I know.    I quoted you since you also mentioned 2018 but it was more for clarification since I expect Phil will say this is complete opposite of 2018.  

That’s because it is! Underneath it all.

Intraseasonally-enhanced W-Pac convection has it feeling like 2018 in the PNW *for now* (very different out here & in other regions) but that is not the LP/background state this year, where-as it was in 2018.

So where-as that W-Pac/P7 type pattern amplified in July/August 2018, the opposite will (probably) happen this year. The differences between 2023 and 2018 are substantial, and that should become increasingly apparent as July rolls on.

Also, MJO analog composites have been projecting a heatwave in early/mid July for months, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I’ve been talking about it for awhile.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s because it is! Underneath it all.

Intraseasonally-enhanced W-Pac convection has it feeling like 2018 in the PNW *for now* (very different out here & in other regions) but that is not the LP/background state this year, where-as it was in 2018.

So where-as that W-Pac/P7 type pattern amplified in July/August 2018, the opposite will (probably) happen this year. The differences between 2023 and 2018 are substantial, and that should become increasingly apparent as July rolls on.

Also, MJO analog composites have been projecting a heatwave in early/mid July for months, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I’ve been talking about it for awhile.

So we will see a difference between this year and July 2018 starting in august?

[Phil]

only good thing about days that heat up faster is convection starts earlier. can already hear thunder from 2 different directions and it’s not even noon. lots of hot towers shooting up.

Nature does have a way of course correcting

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So we will see a difference between this year and July 2018 starting in august?

I think sooner than that. Second half (or at least final third) of this month should be quite different in terms of the 500mb pattern.

I remember seeing that W-Pacific/Phase-7 low pass signal in 2018 and knowing the pattern was going to get progressively hotter in the West through the summer. There is no such signal this year.

[Phil]

FWIW, ENSO/LP + off-domain/seasonal LP analog composites suggest an early start to autumn in the West. September looks pretty active out there verbatim (and miserable/stagnant out here, as usual).

[AlTahoe]

June 2018 was almost 10F warmer here than this June so not a very good match outside of the Pnw. 

Also look at these temp ranges in Southern Cal yesterday! 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s because it is! Underneath it all.

Intraseasonally-enhanced W-Pac convection has it feeling like 2018 in the PNW *for now* (very different out here & in other regions) but that is not the LP/background state this year, where-as it was in 2018.

So where-as that W-Pac/P7 type pattern amplified in July/August 2018, the opposite will (probably) happen this year. The differences between 2023 and 2018 are substantial, and that should become increasingly apparent as July rolls on.

Also, MJO analog composites have been projecting a heatwave in early/mid July for months, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I’ve been talking about it for awhile.

I think we lucked out on this heatwave if we escape with a max of 91 at Sea-Tac and only one, maybe two days at 90+. Plus the lack of a strong thermal trough is a huge win with all of the fires and fireworks everywhere. If the easterlies were cranking it could have been a real disaster. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

June 2018 was almost 10F warmer here than this June so not a very good match outside of the Pnw. 

Also look at these temp ranges in Southern Cal yesterday! 

This June was quite a bit warmer than 2018 IMBY.  It did fall behind Junes of 2021, 2015, 2009. 

[ShawniganLake]

In terms of area burned. This wildfire season in BC is now 3rd worst. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I think sooner than that. Second half (or at least final third) of this month should be quite different in terms of the 500mb pattern.

I remember seeing that W-Pacific/Phase-7 low pass signal in 2018 and knowing the pattern was going to get progressively hotter in the West through the summer. There is no such signal this year.

The current low pass projected map from the Roundy site shows lots of ridging in the second half of July and first half of August.  

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think we lucked out on this heatwave if we escape with a max of 91 at Sea-Tac and only one, maybe two days at 90+. Plus the lack of a strong thermal trough is a huge win with all of the fires and fireworks everywhere. If the easterlies were cranking it could have been a real disaster. 

 

Really ended up working out perfectly.   The smoke never got too bad and the inevitable firework smog lifted quickly on Wednesday morning.    And yet the weather has been outstanding for all the holiday activities with basically wall-to-wall sunshine since last week and warm temps.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

Farmers in parts of the Canadian prairies are in a tough spot currently.  Crop failures are already occurring. 
 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the models the we should continue to be well above average well into the future. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models the we should continue to be well above average well into the future. 

October will probably be chilly this fall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

October will probably be chilly this fall. 

Wouldn't doubt it. 

[Timmy Supercell]

47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

October will probably be chilly this fall. 

The average ones were pretty nice in southern Oregon. The last cold one though was bone dry, one thing I didn't like about Fall 2019.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm 

 

 

 

My in-laws that live there left this week to make their yearly trek to our driveway in their travel trailer until September. Looks like they just beat the real heat. They take their time coming up and will be here in a few weeks. 

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

Looking big.

[Omegaraptor]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm 

 

 

 

It’s a dry heat, so it isn’t that bad. Don’t have to shovel sunshine!!!

[Cold Snap]

25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Spending the week in Phoenix next week…. Might be a little warm 

 

 

 

Looking like it could be an extended heat wave too. Looks like Phoenix could go at least a week straight with 110+ temps. Hopefully it doesn’t decide to shift north at some point.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models the we should continue to be well above average well into the future. 

At least there's this just 4 days away. Euro/GFS also hinted at more troughy conditions towards days 9-10.

[T-Town]

Just 71 here at 1 pm. Nine degrees behind yesterday. 

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At least there's this just 4 days away. Euro/GFS also hinted at more troughy conditions towards days 9-10.

Forks looks HOTT! 

[MossMan]

Just now, T-Town said:

Just 71 here at 1 pm. Nine degrees behind yesterday. 

80 here. 

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

80 here. 

I think the marine air must have reached here. Only 70 in Shelton right now. 

[LowerGarfield]

92 degrees outside!

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At least there's this just 4 days away. Euro/GFS also hinted at more troughy conditions towards days 9-10.

Yes... ECMWF shows marine layer until noon and a high only in the mid 70s on Monday.   Then back to sunny and warmer.    But not too warm.    Goldilocks weather.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

81.9°F.

[TT-SEA]

My phone says perpetual goldilocks weather... although today is a little too warm for me.

[TT-SEA]

79 at SEA and 86 in North Bend... typical of a weak marine push day and very common in the summer.    

[Front Ranger]

Peak of 91 at SEA, no hundo for PDX, temps 10 degrees cooler today...certainly not the worst case scenario based on what some models were showing a week or so ago.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think we lucked out on this heatwave if we escape with a max of 91 at Sea-Tac and only one, maybe two days at 90+. Plus the lack of a strong thermal trough is a huge win with all of the fires and fireworks everywhere. If the easterlies were cranking it could have been a real disaster. 

 

Yeah that’s an interesting point. All the important intraseasonal scale variables were/are aligned for a heatwave pattern, but the outcome is pretty “meh” south of the border.

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The current low pass projected map from the Roundy site shows lots of ridging in the second half of July and first half of August.  

Be careful with how you interpret that graphic. Because it is a 100-day mean, it won’t pick up week to week pattern variability.

I.E: That is a 3+ month time period reflected on that graphic. Which why it’s often referred to as the “background” or “low frequency” state.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the point forecast for SLE, highs in the 83-88 range for the next week. Could definitely be much worse, but still above normal, as average is in the 81-82 range. 

[Phil]

It could be awhile before we see another bonafide La Niña event. All of the post-WWII 3+ year -ENSO/Niña cycles did not see another La Niña for at least 4 years.

1954-57: 7 years (1964/65, moderate).

1974-76: 8 years (1983/84, weak).

1999-02: 4 years (2005/06, weak).

And none of those subsequent La Niñas were overly potent. Weak/moderate in each case.

Actually, both 1983/84 and 2005/06 barely met the criteria, so those wait times could be extended to 9yrs and 6yrs, respectively, by that criteria.