July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful morning in Mazatlán on the Mexican Riviera.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Beautiful morning in Mazatlán on the Mexican Riviera.

And cooler than Eugene!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Time for  !

Quote

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
540 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...HOT, DRY, UNSTABLE, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WAZ660-663-060130-
/O.CON.KPQR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230706T0600Z/
Extreme South Washington Cascades and Foothills-
Eastern Gifford Pinchot National Forest Mt Adams Ranger District-
540 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 660 AND 663...

* AFFECTED AREA...
    In Washington,
    - Fire Weather Zone 660 Extreme South Washington Cascades
       and Foothills.
    - Fire Weather Zone 663 Eastern Gifford Pinchot National
       Forest Mt Adams Ranger District.

* TIMING... Until 11 PM Wednesday night.

* WINDS...East 3-7 mph with gusts 12-20 mph, becoming northwest
  late afternoon and evening.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity of 15 to 25
  percent, except 10 to 15 percent in and near the Columbia Gorge.

* HAINES...5 (moderate) to 6 (high).

* IMPACTS...Conditions are favorable for rapid fire spread which
  has the potential to threaten life and property. Use extra
  caution with potential ignition sources, especially in grassy
  areas. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of the
above conditions can contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Check with your local fire agency to see whether burning and/or
firework restrictions are in place. Even if burning is legal, do
not leave any type of fire unattended.

&&

$$

 

[the_convergence_zone]

Sea-Tac is also on pace for 90 today, running 2F above yesterday as of 9 AM. 

Yesterday my peak solar radiation was 736 W/m^2, compared with ~880 W/m^2 on previous days. There are also some high level clouds associated with an upper-level trough that is moving through today. It might be enough to keep the max at 88 or 89. 

 

[jakerepp]

Highs IMBY the last 3 days 

117.5

119.3

117.9

Uhhh pool before 10am is the word, then.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Highs IMBY the last 3 days 

117.5

119.3

117.9

Uhhh pool before 10am is the word, then.

Better thee than me!

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Glad to see that those confident predictions of a suppressed 4CH and a cool CA/SW this summer are working out...

Because the long range GFS has never been wrong.

The 4CH has been suppressed relative to climo.

[HuskyMaestro]

59 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Glad to see that those confident predictions of a suppressed 4CH and a cool CA/SW this summer are working out...

Oh jeez if that verifies, looks like a lot of the California grasses and foliage that grew in the rains is gonna be completely torched. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Oh jeez if that verifies, looks like a lot of the California grasses and foliage that grew in the rains is gonna be completely torched. 

Happens every summer in California. Their dry season is long enough and dry enough that there is a period of high fire risk each year. As such, it is normal for a wet winter to be followed by an unusually active fire season.

[Phil]

I don’t know how the founding fathers survived here without AC. Not to mention those thick coats and wigs they always wore.

They were just made of something different, I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t know how the founding fathers survived here without AC. Not to mention those thick coats and wigs they always wore.

They were just made of something different, I guess.

Well I am sure people were accustomed to it over time, also in general people did not live as long back then. I believe the average white person in 1776 America lived to be about 36 years old. The founders were generally wealthier than the average person, so many of them lived to relatively old ages for folks back then. Generally if you made it through childhood diseases you stood a pretty good chance of making it to your 50s and 60s, though any number of seemingly benign (By modern standards) ailments could take you out much sooner. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well I am sure people were accustomed to it over time, also in general people did not live as long back then. I believe the average white person in 1776 America lived to be about 36 years old. The founders were generally wealthier than the average person, so many of them lived to relatively old ages for folks back then. 

I know it’s all relative, but all things considered, they weren’t *that* well off. Or at least weren’t comfortably cloistered away in suburbia like most yuppies today.

This is pretty brutal stuff. Brits were savages.

 

[MWG]

We made it to 100F yesterday and multiple fires but the FD were able to knock them out.

Currently 84F already and we are supposed to have another 100F day.

[lowlandsnow]

Looks unlikely SEA will reach 90 today given it's only 79 and probably not through July 20th given long term forecasts.

[FroYoBro]

It might hit 90 at pdx

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I don’t know how the founding fathers survived here without AC. Not to mention those thick coats and wigs they always wore.

They were just made of something different, I guess.

Hundreds of millions of people today live in South/Southeast Asia, lowland Latin America, West Africa, etc without AC. What you have 3 months a year they have year round. We are truly privileged.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PGE put up about a dozen new weather stations along the foothills recently. They are now reporting on the mesonet site. 

[TT-SEA]

On 7/2/2023 at 7:07 PM, Phil said:

PNW oasis pattern on LR ensembles.  

 

Not surprising that the ensembles are slowly backing off this idea.   Phil needs to stop jinxing it.  

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Looks unlikely SEA will reach 90 today given it's only 79 and probably not through July 20th given long term forecasts.

Consistently warm with no extreme heat.   

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Not surprising that the ensembles are slowly backing off this idea.   Phil needs to stop jinxing it.  

[NWbyNW]

Here is the almost live satellite view from minutes ago.  I was curious if we'd see the McEwan Fire's (Shelton) smoke but it's hard to tell.  The smoke is clearly visible as it runs down and over the Cascade's and pools in the Willamette Valley as well, in that case mostly being fireworks smoke probably (?).  Smoke is expected to stick around for a few more days, but ensembles and showing around July 7th, things might start to clean up.  Still, most smoke is not low and there hasn't been as smoke smoke spewing from BC in the past 24hrs. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Here is the almost live satellite view from minutes ago.  I was curious if we'd see the McEwan Fire's (Shelton) smoke but it's hard to tell.  The smoke is clearly visible as it runs down and over the Cascade's and pools in the Willamette Valley as well, in that case mostly being fireworks smoke probably (?).  Smoke is expected to stick around for a few more days, but ensembles and showing around July 7th, things might start to clean up.  Still, most smoke is not low and there hasn't been as smoke smoke spewing from BC in the past 24hrs. 

I think your image might be from yesterday.   Here is the current view from the GOES West satellite.  

[NWbyNW]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think your image might be from yesterday.   Here is the current view from the GOES West satellite.  

You know what!  You're right @TT-SEA!  I posted the wrong one.  I had both (and others) on my desktop and I dragged the wrong one over. Thanks for catching that!

 

 

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think your image might be from yesterday.   Here is the current view from the GOES West satellite.  

I see the shockingly high clouds that just passed through here. Back to full sun and 80 degrees. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well I am sure people were accustomed to it over time, also in general people did not live as long back then. I believe the average white person in 1776 America lived to be about 36 years old. The founders were generally wealthier than the average person, so many of them lived to relatively old ages for folks back then. Generally if you made it through childhood diseases you stood a pretty good chance of making it to your 50s and 60s, though any number of seemingly benign (By modern standards) ailments could take you out much sooner. 

they also owned people that did all the hard work for them unfortunately

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Did we have a washout 4th?    

We got pretty wet yesterday on the boat.  

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Not surprising that the ensembles are slowly backing off this idea.   Phil needs to stop jinxing it.  

I hope it’s delayed until I get there!

That transiting CCKW is the driver, models are notoriously atrocious at timing these during ASM season, especially before they emerge from IPWP domain.

Though sometimes the GFS is just as awful in the EPAC. Loves to slow/over-amp CCKWs in the W-Hem.

[SnowWillarrive]

48 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Looks unlikely SEA will reach 90 today given it's only 79 and probably not through July 20th given long term forecasts.

Mmm maybe smoke slightly suppressing temps? 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did we have a washout 4th?    

We got pretty wet yesterday on the boat.  

To be fair the MJO composite without ER/LP components verified perfectly, the only difference is timing.

I linked you to that one as well, correct?

[TacomaWx]

54 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Looks unlikely SEA will reach 90 today given it's only 79 and probably not through July 20th given long term forecasts.

Already 84 there with a few hours to go. 

[TacomaWx]

85/53 yesterday and up to 83 here already. 11th +80 high this year and should easily notch a 5th +85 day today. Could even hit 90 for the first time this year. 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Glad to see that those confident predictions of a suppressed 4CH and a cool CA/SW this summer are working out...

To be phair to Phil, the first month of summer was pretty darn cool.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

To be phair to Phil, the first month of summer was pretty darn cool.

And even a suppressed 4CH JJA background state will feature *some* days with a larger 4CH, barring something truly exceptional.

No different than winter patterns. Even the most persistent longwave regimes in DJF will have brief interruptions.

And in this case we’re referencing a day-10 operational GFS run and talking about it as if it’s already happened.  

[Omegaraptor]

30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

To be phair to Phil, the first month of summer was pretty darn cool.

Colusa County!

[The Blob]

We had some great fun, tried to get my son to pee on the Portland Spirit as it passed under us.

[lowlandsnow]

2 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

Looks unlikely SEA will reach 90 today given it's only 79 and probably not through July 20th given long term forecasts.

That turned out to be a bad prediction

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

That turned out to be a bad prediction

From NWS Seattle At 3:05 PM PDT, Seattle reached 90° for the first time this year.

[T-Town]

87 here. Could make a run at 90. 

[TacomaWx]

31 minutes ago, T-Town said:

87 here. Could make a run at 90. 

Think we fall a bit short on 90 today but it’ll be close. 87 here as well with about ~2 hours to go. 

[TacomaWx]

This is our second heatwave so far this warm season…with the first being in May. That month ended up being torchy but June wasn’t too warm…just +0.6F IMBY. Either way already feeling done with this heat so far this summer despite not hitting 90 yet this year.