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August 2023 Weather in the PNW


Cascadia_Wx

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, I have been trying to figure out what he has been arguing cuz I knew what that map meant when you posted it 🤣😀

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely one of the coolest, cloudiest Julys I can remember out here.   The sun was only shining like 90% of the time.  It makes sense that its on the 'coolest' side of the ledger on that map legend.

Mountaintop Tim needs a zanny.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Just now, Phil said:

Mountaintop Tim needs a zanny.

My sherpa guide needs to lead an expedition down to Bartell Drugs in North Bend.    5-day journey but probably worth it. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Your wife could run it in 45 flat.

Well they are replacing a small bridge on the service road along I-90 this week at the bottom of the hill and the road is closed.  This turns a 2.5 mile jaunt to North Bend into a 5-mile detour down Cedar Falls road to exit 32.    That... and the heat... might slow her down right now.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Angst and despair aside, this weekend’s pattern looks pretty interesting.

Bring it on!   Actually this comes after the weekend in western OR and WA... but looks delicious.  

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-2716400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m lucky in that I live in a pretty nice area. Lake O and West Linn are nice if you have money. Sandy is another great small town. Ashland is top notch, other than that…  La Pine is okay for Central Oregon, La Grande is decent though remote. That’s about it…

Hey now. My parent's town of Aunt Myrtle Creek really isn't too bad. Rural-ish living with close proximity to all the amenities a decent-sized city like Roseburg could offer.

Still a lot of meth around, though.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Update on the tree situation... the HOA has begun the removal of hundreds of dead fir trees (mostly hemlocks) along our road.    Feels like quite the fire hazard around here at this point.  

20230815_111832.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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53 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, there’s some kind of collective psychosis going on here. It’s like people forgot how to do basic math and instead parrot meritless rhetoric from politically poisoned dimwits.

Andrew would prefer only emotionally-attached/logic-detached local posts, please. Your time zone is not welcome.

A forum for the end of the world.

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11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Lots of this, but rather wet storms.

image.gif

Had some of that today.

 

 

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Just now, Front Ranger said:

How much a month is your HOA?

Its not cheap and I am pretty sure its about to go up even more.   Maybe this Nino winter will give us a break on snow plowing expenses.

This morning there were at least 6 totally dead trees in the area in front of that truck... but I took the pic during the clean up after they were already down.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its not cheap and I am pretty sure its about to go up even more.   Maybe this Nino winter will give us a break on snow plowing expenses.

This morning there were at least 6 totally dead trees in the area in front of that truck... but I took the pic during the clean up after they were already down.

Consequences of living above 1,000ft.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Consequences of living above 1,000ft.

Which part?   Snow plowing or dead trees? 

And my house is at 980 feet.    There are expensive neighborhoods in Bellevue within sight of SEA that are higher.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Those guys were out there working when it was 98 degrees this afternoon.   I was miserable just walking out to get the mail when I took that pic.    Kudos to them.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Which part?   Snow plowing or dead trees? 

And my house is at 980 feet.    There are expensive neighborhoods in Bellevue within sight of SEA that are higher.  

Frozen water tends to fall from the sky at high elevations.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Just now, Phil said:

Frozen water tends to fall from the sky at high elevations.

Yes... my childhood home in Minnesota was at 1,200 feet with nothing but cornfields around the neighborhood at that time.    Lots of frozen water fell from the sky there too.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don't need the difference between climate change and natural variability explained to me. I have a PhD in atmospheric science. It takes 10 seconds of looking at any time series plot of temperature or precipitation in this region to see the natural variability superimposed on top of the climate signal and it takes one line of code to detrend the climate signal. 

What you're describing is natural variability. 

Amplification of that variability as a result of climate change is maybe what we're talking about here. Polar amplification is obvious. Amplification of PNW summer warmth is also clearly happening and is predicted both theoretically and by climate models. 

Based on natural variability alone, the last several winters should have been much colder and snowier in the PNW than they actually were. 

 

 

 

What specifically is your PhD in? Because your follow-up sentence is not even remotely accurate.

Simply detrending the data isn’t sufficient for attribution because much of the internal variability in question exists on much lower frequencies than the entire observational record. We’re talking centuries.

And this internal variability itself affects the radiation budget and systemic heat flows to a significant degree. Heck, the glacial cycle exists without any change to solar input..it’s merely how it’s distributed that affects tropical-ET circulation, cloud/ice albedo, etc.

Impossible to pick a random station and detrend from linear regression for attribution. That’s even if there is zero UHI/land use change corrupting said trend.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bring it on!   Actually this comes after the weekend in western OR and WA... but looks delicious.  

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-2716400.png

I want my woah reaction back.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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58 minutes ago, Phil said:

Frozen water tends to fall from the sky at high elevations.

Another fun tidbit... my house is lower than Omaha Nebraska and at the exact same elevation as the famously mountainous region of Kansas City.    👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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