August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The convective details are off but there still exists widespread rainfall.

I'm curious to see the ensemble probability plots...the >0.5" rain one has been showing >50% probability for a large area which is encouraging. For the Seattle/Puget Sound crowd the question seems to be whether the storms blow up over the lowlands or if it ends up being a light show to the east. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

[Snownerd3000]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My friend’s hairdresser’s nephew’s grandmother’s bursitis is acting up, so I am going with a super-rainy winter with lots of pineapple expresses. Science!

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hopefully we can get some rain with this and some thunderstorms. I don’t remember the last time I saw a bolt of lightning.

I thought Eugene got a good thunderstorm last August with some big hail? Maybe it missed you though

[Cloud]

Smoke is back today but not nearly as bad as last weekend. Once again, smoke models did very well. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, ChristheElohim said:

I thought it was if nest was on ground or close to ground means a milder and calmer winter and if high up means a rough winter or vice versa. 

yes

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Multi-year ENSO events have already been commonplace as far back as any records exist. Which is the 1850s or so. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought Eugene got a good thunderstorm last August with some big hail? Maybe it missed you though

I remember the thunder, just didn’t see any lightning bolts. Hopefully that can change soon.

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I remember the thunder, just didn’t see any lightning bolts. Hopefully that can change soon.

When there is thunder there is lightning. You gotta go out and look.    

[NWbyNW]

Current AQI is still green except for NW Washington and BC.

 

The worst runs show August 26th being the worst day for smoke, and even then, the experts still predict we will have clean air to breath and it will mostly be aloft.  So who is going to be right?  The local tv media who is ramping up hype of dangerous smoke returning, or the State of Washington forecasters?

 

Remind others to be mindful as well...

[NWbyNW]

MUCH lighter levels of smoke in the air at higher altitudes for the Western portions of WA and Oregon.  The Puget Sound is still seeing clouds too.  Should burn off throughout the day.  

 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

MUCH lighter levels of smoke in the air at higher altitudes for the Western portions of WA and Oregon.  The Puget Sound is still seeing clouds too.  Should burn off throughout the day.  

 

There aren't any clouds in the Puget Sound area today. 

[Tanis Leach]

58 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Research finds previous weather patterns indeed happen as they were previously discovered now, and into the future.

[Deweydog]

I was promised there would be no haze between 1pm and 4pm.

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I was promised there would be no haze between 1pm and 4pm.

no but there may be some hazy ipas after 4

[MossMan]

Today’s Everett hospital view. 

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[Dave]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

When there is thunder there is lightning. You gotta go out and look.    

That's why I've seen 100+ bolts over the last few years, including ~50 or so on Aug 9th, 2022. If there is a bolt to be seen, I'm out looking for it. It helps that the roof overhangs the front and the back of the house so I can stand there and not get wet.

Step 1: Look at the radar first to see which direction to look.

Step 2: Stare until your neck hurts.

Also, don't get struck by lightning.

[Omegaraptor]

88 at PDX. Downsloping/foehn going on at Troutdale, 92 there.

[iFred]

6 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looks like it is entirely convective -- a spectacular widespread thunderstorm event. There's a huge moisture pathway between the heat dome to the east and the big 'ol low offshore, plus all of these tropical systems that have decided to come out west. 

I'm dead serious when I say this could compete with our all-time great western WA t-storm outbreaks. We won't know the details for a few days (coast Monday, Puget Sound Tuesday???) but I think it's going to be a top-5 weather event of 2023. 

Fingers crossed.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Thunderstorms are firing up. 

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Thunderstorms are firing up. 

Nice! Afternoon trends are hopeful for the Seattle area later tonight into midday tomorrow. PDX looks great!

[Tanis Leach]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

The NHC does not consider it to be a hurricane. A ship cannot confirm whether it’s a tropical or subtropical/extratropical system. Neither can the dvorak system. That’s why it is un-named.

Many subtropical systems have tropical characteristics. Many also have hurricane force winds and tight cores. That is entirely normal, and can exist over much cooler water.

But that doesn’t make them *tropical* systems, driven by warm-rain processes. Need a unique set of conditions/thermodynamic processes to meet said criteria. Unless they are *purely* tropical in that regard, they are, by definition, subtropical. It’s a definition/classification you can disagree with, but that is the convention as of now.

 

Ok, here is the 1949 to present EPAC hurricane database. Scroll down to 1975: nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2022-050423.txt

1975 season from CPAC, where they describe the storm (another NOAA entity, where the 75 system originally formed: https://web.archive.org/web/20180915135859/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1975.php

As a bonus, 2 articles from the AMS journal monthly weather reviews (MWR) of it: An Unusual Tropical Cyclone in the North Central Pacific in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 3 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

Unusual Tropical Development from a Mid-Pacific Cold Low in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 6 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

One thing I did forget, is that the 1975 hurricane did originate as a subtropical storm over 28°C water (it was noted at 28°C at 35°N), and when it was upgraded to a hurricane (completing Tropical transition), it was 25°C (see 1st MWR). SST's rapidly deteriorated after the last dot as a hurricane and "was quickly becoming extratropical [at 12z Sep 4]." It got downgraded at 17C (12z Sep 4), to a TS. This does further question the 54N 138W dot but strengthens the case that it was tropical to at a minimum 44N. I would like to see a reanalysis of this just for better confirmation one way or another.

The 06 storm I do understand the debate since it isn't officially classified. While I see it as subtropical to tropical with my support being the structure of the storm, and the evidence provided by Bently (et. al) 2016, I do respect your opinion on it. 

Now for Alex:

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Also re: hurricane Alex, the waters it traveled over were 73°F, and the tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep, enough to fuel exceptional instability. And it just so happened to exist in a zonal wind moat.

Those conditions don’t exist off the coast of Alaska (concurrently) at any time of year. You’re looking at water temps in the 50s or below. Not to mention the in-situ oceanic conditions (strong EBC) were unfavorable in 1975, fueled by a prolific 3-year La Niña.

It is exceedingly unlikely to have been a purely tropical system, as the NHC recognizes.

Your point 2 stands (tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep). But the water was only 73°F was only true when the storm formed. The tropical cyclone report noted it was upgraded to a hurricane at 22°C (71.6°F) (note this was 9 hours earlier than the operational intensity), and the peak still was at 20°C (68°F), with weakening beginning at 18°C (64.4°F).

[Ken in Wood Village]

A nice cluster of storms forming South Central Oregon. It looks like it's moving North to Northwest. 

[Meatyorologist]

Hurricane Alex has been confirmed to be a storm of tropical origins. But what does this mean for Joe Biden?

[Front Ranger]

8 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Tropical is not possible, only subtropical. 

 

21 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Ok, here is the 1949 to present EPAC hurricane database. Scroll down to 1975: nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2022-050423.txt

1975 season from CPAC, where they describe the storm (another NOAA entity, where the 75 system originally formed: https://web.archive.org/web/20180915135859/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1975.php

As a bonus, 2 articles from the AMS journal monthly weather reviews (MWR) of it: An Unusual Tropical Cyclone in the North Central Pacific in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 3 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

Unusual Tropical Development from a Mid-Pacific Cold Low in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 6 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

One thing I did forget, is that the 1975 hurricane did originate as a subtropical storm over 28°C water (it was noted at 28°C at 35°N), and when it was upgraded to a hurricane (completing Tropical transition), it was 25°C (see 1st MWR). SST's rapidly deteriorated after the last dot as a hurricane and "was quickly becoming extratropical [at 12z Sep 4]." It got downgraded at 17C (12z Sep 4), to a TS. This does further question the 54N 138W dot but strengthens the case that it was tropical to at a minimum 44N. I would like to see a reanalysis of this just for better confirmation one way or another.

The 06 storm I do understand the debate since it isn't officially classified. While I see it as subtropical to tropical with my support being the structure of the storm, and the evidence provided by Bently (et. al) 2016, I do respect your opinion on it. 

Now for Alex:

Your point 2 stands (tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep). But the water was only 73°F was only true when the storm formed. The tropical cyclone report noted it was upgraded to a hurricane at 22°C (71.6°F) (note this was 9 hours earlier than the operational intensity), and the peak still was at 20°C (68°F), with weakening beginning at 18°C (64.4°F).

This was the context for my post, good @iFred

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

A nice cluster of storms forming South Central Oregon. It looks like it's moving North to Northwest. 

Heading straight for SUNRIVER.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Hurricane Alex has been confirmed to be a storm of tropical origins. But what does this mean for Joe Biden?

Joe is of extra-tropical origins (unlike Obama) and will likely remain that way through his rapid deterioration.

[Front Ranger]

Nice to see a massive swath of the West get the fire season essentially ended. Hopefully this will be the case for southern BC soon as well.

[Dave]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice to see a massive swath of the West get the fire season essentially ended. Hopefully this will be the case for southern BC soon as well.

I don't know about that. 800% of very little avg precip is still very little precip. 

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, Dave said:

I don't know about that. 800% of very little avg precip is still very little precip. 

It was .5-3" for most of that area.

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, Dave said:

I don't know about that. 800% of very little avg precip is still very little precip. 

we had like .45 here and that's apparently 250% of normal I guess

[MWG]

Smoke yesterday was much less and even today but now the smoke it's starting to roll in.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Just an update. Thunderstorms are moving further North to Northwest. This is probably the last daytime satellite picture I'll be able to post tonight. Most likely I'll post the water vapor later. I will be going to bed a little around 9pm. Maybe I will be woke up from thunder 🌩

[Omegaraptor]

Not a single low below 80 at New Orleans Lakefront so far this month.

 

Alexandria, LA data for this month speaks for itself.

[LowerGarfield]

77F outside with a bit of haze but not terrible.

@TigerWoodsLibido I thought of you when I heard Eugene's only hospital is closing. Makes me mad that a city that large will have no hospital. Thinking of all the people with burns/smoke damage or chronic conditions tonight.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

we had like .45 here and that's apparently 250% of normal I guess

Yeah. .44 here and same story!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

77F outside with a bit of haze but not terrible.

@TigerWoodsLibido I thought of you when I heard Eugene's only hospital is closing. Makes me mad that a city that large will have no hospital. Thinking of all the people with burns/smoke damage or chronic conditions tonight.

Yep. Sad state of affairs. Everyone has to come to Springfield to go to the ER now. Just crazy.

[Dave]

23 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

77F outside with a bit of haze but not terrible.

@TigerWoodsLibido I thought of you when I heard Eugene's only hospital is closing. Makes me mad that a city that large will have no hospital. Thinking of all the people with burns/smoke damage or chronic conditions tonight.

The Riverbend hospital, just east of the Eug/Spr border is about 10x bigger than the Eugene hospital that is closing. It was pretty inevitable. That being said, it is a bit embarrassing that the hospital is not located in Eugene. It was a matter of locating the right amount of land and property and tons of crappy politics and grift.

[The Cats Meow]

What a beautiful day today.  Got nice and warm for a bit but started off cool and has already cooled off.

 

Fall is near.

[Dave]

7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I remember the thunder, just didn’t see any lightning bolts. Hopefully that can change soon.

There are a few lightning bolts to your east. Probably not viewable now, but at least you should be able to see flashes within the next 20 minutes if you can sit outside in a lawn chair and stare out to the east.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

There are a few lightning bolts to your east. Probably not viewable now, but at least you should be able to see flashes within the next 20 minutes if you can sit outside in a lawn chair and stare out to the east.

I’m in Monmouth today

[Dave]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’m in Monmouth today

Probably the biggest storm in years will roll over your house now. Shiiiiaat.

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, Dave said:

Probably the biggest storm in years will roll over your house now. Shiiiiaat.

It’s a well known fact that making an account on theweatherforums drops the rate of interesting weather events in your area by 75%.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, Dave said:

Probably the biggest storm in years will roll over your house now. Shiiiiaat.

Absolutely expected.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

[Dave]

17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Absolutely expected.

I think McMinnville should do fine, at least in terms of seeing distant flashes. Now that it is getting dark, I'm gonna look east in my lawn chair and see what I can see.

[Dave]

Flash confirmed within 30 seconds. Thunder too.

[Cold Snap]

77/47 day for me. Highs underperformed a bit due to smoke. If the smoke sticks around through the weekend maybe I won’t get 90 burgers Saturday and Sunday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Headed south from Monmouth into the south valley. I’ll keep y’all posted.