August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Tuesday is gonna be a classic. Thunderstorms in the morning, potentially multiple rounds, giving way to stratoform rain into the evening. It'll be a rainy, cool day east of the Sound.

[Dave]

35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tuesday is gonna be a classic. Thunderstorms in the morning, potentially multiple rounds, giving way to stratoform rain into the evening. It'll be a rainy, cool day east of the Sound.

Looks like a bag of dikks is in store for the southern WV. Oh well, I won't complain. We had a great light show the other day. It would be nice if we could get at least some rain. .05 isn't gonna be very helpful though.

[NWbyNW]

Lol! Forecast for Sunday was 85F, then down to 83F.  We tipped the scales at 73F in Everett.  Nice.  Currently 64F.  The smoke really kept the sun and heat at bay.  

[Cloud]

Last 3 GFS runs pretty much put an abrupt end to summer. Quite aggressive!

[The Blob]

Went to Costco yesterday and found Christmas. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I hope you don’t live to regret that excitement. A major hurricane is serious stuff.

I lived through Hurricane Andrew, I understand Hurricanes. My family has been through a dozen of them. I’m prepared.

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro gave a decent amount of rain throughout the region. Looking increasingly like this will be a far different late warm/fire season than last year.

[TT-SEA]

Ran some numbers... SEA is currently at an average of 70.8 for the month and should end up right around 70 taking in account the projected cooler temps from Tuesday-Thursday to end the month.    Last August ended up exactly at 70.0 and was the 4th warmest month ever at SEA.   This month should end up in the top 5 warmest months ever and the 3rd warmest August (just behind 2017 and maybe 2022). 

[Front Ranger]

Euro is still not onboard with Idalia becoming a major hurricane before it hits Florida, and we're talking 3 days out now. 

While the gulf waters are plenty warm, apparently wind shear is not super favorable. 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Cloud said:

Last 3 GFS runs pretty much put an abrupt end to summer. Quite aggressive!

Technically not true for the 00Z run last night.   It showed a return to something close to the current pattern with temps back into the 80s for week 2.   Definitely true for the 18Z run yesterday and the 06Z run though.     I remember declarations of summer being over at the end of August last year as well based on some aggressive GFS runs.   Although there is absolutely no way this September and October end up like last year.   That was crazy.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Technically not true for the 00Z run last night.   It showed a return to something close to the current pattern with temps back into the 80s for week 2.   Definitely true for the 18Z run yesterday and the 06Z run though.     I remember declarations of summer being over at the end of August last year as well based on some aggressive GFS runs.   Although there is absolutely no way this September and October end up like last year.   That was crazy.

I wasn’t looking at a specific time frame but rather at the entire run in general, all the way up to hours 384. But to be more specific, these runs did show a potential pattern shift mid Sept. Just time time for the kids to go back to school! we’ll see how this plays out! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

42 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I lived through Hurricane Andrew, I understand Hurricanes. My family has been through a dozen of them. I’m prepared.

That’s good to hear! I remember hearing about Andrew; it was a really bad one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

0z Euro gave a decent amount of rain throughout the region. Looking increasingly like this will be a far different late warm/fire season than last year.

Looks like only a quarter inch at most IMBY but the mountains and the interior get really drenched. Would probably spell the end of the fire season if it verifies.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That’s good to hear! I remember hearing about Andrew; it was a really bad one.

I was young, it was one of my first weather memories. It completely wiped out our town (Homestead). Looks like I won’t get my impact from this storm. Just TS conditions I think. Hopefully some boom booms 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I wasn’t looking at a specific time frame but rather at the entire run in general, all the way up to hours 384. But to be more specific, these runs did show a potential pattern shift mid Sept. Just time time for the kids to go back to school! we’ll see how this plays out! 

Schools starts out here in just 48 hours.   Likely during a thunderstorm outbreak.    That is a pretty big change!  

[Cloud]

48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

0z Euro gave a decent amount of rain throughout the region. Looking increasingly like this will be a far different late warm/fire season than last year.

6z looking at ~0.50 for SEA. This appears to be an uptick compared to the 0z at this time. Fantastic for northern areas.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Schools starts out here in just 48 hours.   Likely during a thunderstorm outbreak.    That is a pretty big change!  

My niece started school last Wednesday (23rd) for the Kent SD. I didn’t even know they started that early. Growing up, I always started school AFTER Labor Day. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

My niece started school last Wednesday (23rd) for the Kent SD. I didn’t even know they started that early. Growing up, I always started school AFTER Labor Day. 

Same in Minnesota growing up... always the day after Labor Day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Model runs right now are too good to be true. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

6z looking at ~0.50 for SEA. This appears to be an uptick compared to the 0z at this time. Fantastic for northern areas.

Here is the lightning and precip loop from the 06Z ECMWF.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

6z looking at ~0.50 for SEA. This appears to be an uptick compared to the 0z at this time. Fantastic for northern areas.

Peninsula still dry. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Peninsula still dry. 

Too far west! 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here the lightning and precip loop from the 06Z ECMWF.

I’ll probably sneak out and catch the light show. Work should be rather slow this week with all the BS from Spirit Aerosystems. 

[LowerGarfield]

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like only a quarter inch at most IMBY but the mountains and the interior get really drenched. Would probably spell the end of the fire season if it verifies.

Also Southern Oregon gets in on the act here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

0z Euro gave a decent amount of rain throughout the region. Looking increasingly like this will be a far different late warm/fire season than last year.

May the rainy season begin.

[Phil]

 

12 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Don’t listen to this fool @Kolk1604 set your alarm. 

Nah, if it’s a legit storm it will wake you up whether you want it to or not. Impossible to sleep through a CTG lightning barrage.

[Phil]

Looks like (once again) the seasonal transition will begin in the West then gradually spread east.

Good chance I have another 6 weeks of summer to get through while the PNW will begin transitioning to autumn weather this coming week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went up the Molalla River corridor yesterday. The middle section of the corridor got hit pretty good by I believe the Beachie Creek Fire. Further up the Table Rock fork is mostly unburned. The lower end of the corridor didn’t burn but is experiencing mass conifer die offs. 

[Phil]

September is *by far* my least favorite month.

Days getting rapidly shorter but the weather doesn’t change. Actually gets more stagnant sometimes. Plus I’m forced to watch with envy as other places enjoy their first autumn airmasses.

Wake me up when September ends.

[Phil]

10 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I hope you don’t live to regret that excitement. A major hurricane is serious stuff.

NHC is awake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

September is *by far* my least favorite month.

Days getting rapidly shorter but the weather doesn’t change. Actually gets more stagnant sometimes. Plus I’m forced to watch with envy as other places enjoy their first autumn airmasses.

Wake me up when September ends.

September can be an enjoyable month here. 2019 and 2013 were great. My least favorite month is November. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

September can be an enjoyable month here. 2019 and 2013 were great. My least favorite month is November. 

Interesting, I figured you’d love November. Lots of zonal flow and precipitation.

[Phil]

@Port Angeles Foothiller   

https://x.com/jacob_feuer/status/1695819786511393108?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Cloud said:

Last 3 GFS runs pretty much put an abrupt end to summer. Quite aggressive!

00z Euro/EPS control too.

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro is still not onboard with Idalia becoming a major hurricane before it hits Florida, and we're talking 3 days out now. 

While the gulf waters are plenty warm, apparently wind shear is not super favorable. 

Trended stronger vs yesterdays 12z, though.

A storm like this (relatively small, landfall before 1st ERC) can get dangerous in a hurry.

Storms like Charley, Wilma, and the Labor Day hurricane come to mind. Those waters are infamous for rapidly intensifying small/compact storms.

[Omegaraptor]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting, I figured you’d love November. Lots of zonal flow and precipitation.

November is basically the downsides of both October and December rolled into one month with almost none of the upsides.

Last November was very good though.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z Euro/EPS control too.

Trended stronger vs yesterdays 12z, though.

A storm like this (relatively small, landfall before 1st ERC) can get dangerous in a hurry.

Storms like Charley, Wilma, and the Labor Day hurricane come to mind. Those waters are infamous for rapidly intensifying small/compact storms.

Yeah, rapid intensification right up to landfall looks like a given. Just a matter of when it really gets going.

Cat 3 seems possible at this point...Cat 5 seems like a stretch. 

 

[snow maniac]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the lightning and precip loop from the 06Z ECMWF.

Looks like drought conditions will continue here, this is a complete miss.

[Cloud]

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

September is *by far* my least favorite month.

Days getting rapidly shorter but the weather doesn’t change. Actually gets more stagnant sometimes. Plus I’m forced to watch with envy as other places enjoy their first autumn airmasses.

Wake me up when September ends.

Sept can be quite awesome here, if everything is on schedule, we feel the brisk autumn airmass. The hiking trails here in Sept are beautiful! By late in the month, the leaves begins to turn, first to show signs are the maples. Things may actually be on schedule this year. 

[GobBluth]

Lots of clouds out there. 90 would seem tough..

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, rapid intensification right up to landfall looks like a given. Just a matter of when it really gets going.

Cat 3 seems possible at this point...Cat 5 seems like a stretch. 

 

Oh. For sure. I wouldn’t call for a cat5 either. Would guesstimate it landfalls as a high cat2/low cat3.

But, it will be tracking *right* over the loop current, which has a long and notorious history of rapidly intensifying storms (even storms that only briefly cross over it).

Idalia will be riding the loop current for 36hrs starting tonight. It is possible the storm reaches cat5 intensity if it remains small and doesn’t undergo an early ERC. Odds are low (<20%) but it has happened before.

 

[RentonHill]

Models are still all over the map 3 days out for precip

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like the smoke starts breaking up on Tuesday but takes until Wednesday morning before it finally all dissipates. Gonna be nasty until then.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=em&utc=12&region=pacific

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Models are still all over the map 3 days out for precip

Euro operational continues to be a dry outlier. Ensemble mean continues to call for more generous amounts.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is really wet for Thursday as well.

Then shows mid to upper 70s in Seattle for all 3 days of the holiday weekend and that would likely be smoke-free by then.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting, I figured you’d love November. Lots of zonal flow and precipitation.

Warm front drizzle hell. 

[Phil]

Summer going down kicking and screaming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting, I figured you’d love November. Lots of zonal flow and precipitation.

Warm front drizzle hell. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm front drizzle hell. 

So awful you had to say it twice?

[Cloud]

Pretty confident the 70 streak will end for SEA on Tuesday. Last sub-70: June 20. 

[MossMan]

November is my favorite month. Highest windstorm potential, snow potential, just big storms in general potential! 
July is my second favorite. Summertime weather without the smoke yet. Third is December!