August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton if forecasts hold, it looks really really nice later next weekend into the following week...the trough appears to wanna crash far enough south to give a lot of us a nice period of comfortable DP's and cool nights.  If the Euro is right, it may even crash all the way down to Texarkana and give @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistance a much welcomed relief from the oppressive Heat to close out August.

 

A break in this relentless heat will be very welcomed.  Everything looking burnt.  We are all completely drained and needing a break.  
It won’t be today however. 

High of 110.

[Black Hole]

Pretty good signal for another 6-7 hot days in the Tulsa area, but the EPS strongly suggests we cool off after that. Not a real good chance of rain but low end pops probably return to the forecast.  

[chescowxman]

While temps warm into the low to mid 80's today across Chesco humidity stays low. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs above normal in the mid to upper 80's with more humidity added in. Cooler again by tomorrow night through Thursday with daytime highs in the 70's and nights again in the 50's for many spots.

Records for today: High 99 (1983) Low 44 (1949) / Rain 2.59" (1991)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/51. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 88% of the possible time. There was 1 HDD and 0 CDD the highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1947 and the record low of 43 was set in 1992. The record rain fall of 2.34” fell in 2007. Last year the H/L was 79/63 and there was 0.35” of rain fall.

It looks to be very warm and humid today for a one day mini “heat wave” then down to a little above average before another chance of a one day mini “heat wave” on Thursday then cooler next week end.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'm so looking forward to it!  This is going to be a rough week. Manhattan Kansas hit 115 actual temp yesterday and Lawrence had a heat index of 126.  The crazy GFS turned out to be not so crazy.

The long-running overmixing problem on the GFS is still a thing though.  The GFS did well out there because they mixed like crazy, which is typically easier to do in that part of the country.  I don't think the modeled GFS temps approaching 115 in eastern Iowa are particularly likely to verify in the coming days.  That being said, I'm really impressed by what is on the way.  Very potent heat for any time of year, but even a bit more impressive as we are approximately 2 months after the solstice.

[Hoosier]

Reviewing the overnight and available 12z runs, I would say it is the strongest model signal for 100+ temps in Chicago that I have seen since the summer of 2012.  I would now say that it is more likely than not that Chicago reaches 100 on Wednesday and/or Thursday.

Wednesday is more uncertain than Thursday, as there are some failure modes that exist that could prevent triple digits.  But Thursday looks primed, with progged 925 mb temps into the 30s C (not just around 30C, which is typically what I like to see for a realistic shot at making it to 100) and low level flow with a decidely westerly component which usually favors at least decent mixing.  In fact, a case can currently be made for Thursday getting a few degrees above 100.  The all-time August record for Chicago is 102, which would certainly be in danger if trends hold.  There's always a possibility that this could back off some, but at least there is some wiggle room.

[CentralNebWeather]

Massive break so far. Cloudy and 78 degrees as of noon. Still dew point of 72, but an unexpected surprise to say the least. 

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'm so looking forward to it!  This is going to be a rough week. Manhattan Kansas hit 115 actual temp yesterday and Lawrence had a heat index of 126.  The crazy GFS turned out to be not so crazy.

Yeah. It got this heatwave correct. It's brutal. Very.

Anything to break this heat will be welcomed.

[mlgamer]

Current readings at Forbes Field near me: temp 98; dewpoint 80; heat index 118. Summer ain't playin'...lol

[OKwx2k4]

6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Pretty good signal for another 6-7 hot days in the Tulsa area, but the EPS strongly suggests we cool off after that. Not a real good chance of rain but low end pops probably return to the forecast.  

Am glad to see at least a positive trend starting. Hoping it continues.

[Jayhawker85]

33 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Current readings at Forbes Field near me: temp 98; dewpoint 80; heat index 118. Summer ain't playin'...lol

Gary just posted that the current HI here in Lawrence is 129! Gahhh

[Black Hole]

My weather station is reporting 106F with a dew point of 74F, HI of 118F. 

[mlgamer]

8 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary just posted that the current HI here in Lawrence is 129! Gahhh

Forbes now has temp 100, dewpt 82 and HI 126. Looks like Lawrence might hit HI 130 soon. How fun...lol!

[Hoosier]

It was 114/49 in Manhattan, KS at this time yesterday.  Now it's 101/76.  Oh what mixing can do.

[Clinton]

Currently 100 with a heat index of 117 and a dp of 77. 

[Clinton]

From EAX:

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

26 minutes ago

Hey folks,
As we look at the data coming in for this heatwave and the fact that it will continue through Thursday, we’ve been trying to put it into historical perspective. One of the top analogs is from mid-July 1995. That historic heatwave led to hundreds of deaths in the Chicago area. While Kansas City is very different from Chicago, the heat has the same, cumulative effect. So please check on your elderly neighbors, friends, and parents. Cancel or reschedule activities or move them inside. This is life-threatening heat and any and all precautions should be taken.
NWS Kansas City

 

 

91

12

77

[Thunder98]

Meanwhile in Jefferson City, MO, they are currently dealing with super high dew points in the 80's! With Temps in the mid to upper 80's with heat index near 110F. Thanks to that massive ridge in the Central US, which caused Hilary to steer to California.

 

 

[Andie]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

From EAX:

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

26 minutes ago

Hey folks,
As we look at the data coming in for this heatwave and the fact that it will continue through Thursday, we’ve been trying to put it into historical perspective. One of the top analogs is from mid-July 1995. That historic heatwave led to hundreds of deaths in the Chicago area. While Kansas City is very different from Chicago, the heat has the same, cumulative effect. So please check on your elderly neighbors, friends, and parents. Cancel or reschedule activities or move them inside. This is life-threatening heat and any and all precautions should be taken.
NWS Kansas City

 

 

91

12

77

You’re very right here Clinton.  
I was out yesterday afternoon and the heat got to me as I crossed a parking lot.   
Once home I took my blood pressure as I had almost passed out.  It was 107/70. Too low. 
It’s very dangerous out there. Heat indices are at or above records.  I would guess the heat felt close to 125*/130*
.  Really frightening.  
Be careful.  

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very warm and humid day. The official H/L was 88/63 but with the dew point in the mid 70’s it felt much hotter. There were 0 HDD’s and 11 CDD’s yesterday. The sun was out a reported 78% of the time. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1916 and again in 1955 the record low of 44 was set in 1956. The record rain fall amount of 2.08” fell in 2005. Last year the H/L was 81/63 and there was a trace of rain fall.

The week ahead looks to have several up and downs so we can almost call it a elevator week. To day should see highs in the low 80’s tomorrow in the upper 70’s then the upper 80’s and maybe the lower 90’s on Thursday before falling back to the low 80’s on Friday. It could be just the low 70’s for highs on the week end. Lows could be from the low 60’s to maybe the low 70’s. There is a chance of some storms but we shall see.

[Tom]

Chicago had one of the best weekends of the summer as mother nature delivered a stunning weather pattern along the lake with daily lake breezes as millions of people lined up along the beaches and walkways to watch the annual Air & Water Show.  I went to the practice show on Friday and had a wonderful time.  Prob will post more vids later but I wanted to share some "cooler" thoughts as this region up in the Lower Lakes and MW prepares for the seasons hottest temps as the massive Heat Dome over the central CONUS flex's its muscle.

As the Arctic regions begin the transition towards the colder months, like clockwork, the Polar Vortex ramps up as the seasons change quickly up there.  I've heard that the Alaskans up north never really have an Autumn as Summer transitions to Winter in days, not weeks, like we have in the mid lats.  The sun angle up north already has begun its march towards setting by the 1 st week of OCT.  Signs of Autumn have started to ramp up in the Northern Territories of Canada.  I'm very encouraged to see this bc of all the forest fires ongoing in the NW Territories (Yellowknife, etc).  

 

Check out the 0z EPS animation below, once the PV has spun up over the Arctic, it then makes a Beeline towards Baffin Bay & N Hudson Bay.  Is this a clue of the new LRC?  I think so.  Aleutian Low?   I like what I'm seeing for the colder months ahead for the lower 48.  Autumn is coming for most of us as we approach Labor Day weekend.  Stay cool my friends...

 

 

 

[Clinton]

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

Chicago had one of the best weekends of the summer as mother nature delivered a stunning weather pattern along the lake with daily lake breezes as millions of people lined up along the beaches and walkways to watch the annual Air & Water Show.  I went to the practice show on Friday and had a wonderful time.  Prob will post more vids later but I wanted to share some "cooler" thoughts as this region up in the Lower Lakes and MW prepares for the seasons hottest temps as the massive Heat Dome over the central CONUS flex's its muscle.

As the Arctic regions begin the transition towards the colder months, like clockwork, the Polar Vortex ramps up as the seasons change quickly up there.  I've heard that the Alaskans up north never really have an Autumn as Summer transitions to Winter in days, not weeks, like we have in the mid lats.  The sun angle up north already has begun its march towards setting by the 1 st week of OCT.  Signs of Autumn have started to ramp up in the Northern Territories of Canada.  I'm very encouraged to see this bc of all the forest fires ongoing in the NW Territories (Yellowknife, etc).  

 

Check out the 0z EPS animation below, once the PV has spun up over the Arctic, it then makes a Beeline towards Baffin Bay & N Hudson Bay.  Is this a clue of the new LRC?  I think so.  Aleutian Low?   I like what I'm seeing for the colder months ahead for the lower 48.  Autumn is coming for most of us as we approach Labor Day weekend.  Stay cool my friends...

 

 

 

Np doubt in my mind that's a very encouraging sign.  Bring on October!

[Clinton]

Thick fog a d extreme humidity for me this morning. Current temp is 81.

Check out KC 1 am temps.

 National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

5 hours ago

At 12:54 AM on 8/21, the Kansas City Downtown Airport recorded 87°F, a dew point of 81°F, and a heat index of 104°F

[Beltrami Island]

Enduring 90% RH here right now with a temp of...….59f and forecast high of 65f!  It might get up into the 80s here in a couple days.....

I honestly endure the -30s in winter happily imby rather than deal with the heat and humidity you guys in MO, KS, OK, and TX have right now.  

[Iceresistance]

It's already 88°F where I'm at in Norman. (First day of College Classes)

[Andie]

Texas has been waiting a long time for this. Tropical season is arriving in the gulf.   
All it takes is a well formed Low to roll over the state and shake up the High pounding us into the ground.  
Yesterday, I almost passed out on a parking lot as the radiant heat pushed the temps up easily another 10 degrees. Dangerous out there and time to go!will zoom over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters today, with the moisture arriving at the Texas coast tonight. Bring on TS time!

[Hoosier]

The expanse of the 600 dm area is impressive (of course the area covered by 594+ is pretty wild).

[Hoosier]

Been seeing signals for a lake enhanced front screwing up the heat in parts of northeast IL.  The question is 1) will this manifest all the way down into northeast IL and 2) if it does, how far inland does it get before peak heating.  May not end up occurring, but something to watch for Tom and other Chicago area folks.

[Tom]

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Been seeing signals for a lake enhanced front screwing up the heat in parts of northeast IL.  The question is 1) will this manifest all the way down into northeast IL and 2) if it does, how far inland does it get before peak heating.  May not end up occurring, but something to watch for Tom and other Chicago area folks.

I’ve been keenly looking into this possibility since yesterday.  As much as I’d like to see 100F at ORD, I wouldn’t mind escaping the heat and humidity.  Isn’t 100F in August pretty rare?  I think I heard we usually see 100F days more so in July.  

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’ve been keenly looking into this possibility since yesterday.  As much as I’d like to see 100F at ORD, I wouldn’t mind escaping the heat and humidity.  Isn’t 100F in August pretty rare?  I think I heard we usually see 100F days more so in July.  

15/65 of Chicago's official 100 degree days have happened in August/September... so less than a quarter. 

Only 5 have happened this late (or later) in a calendar year.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

15/65 of Chicago's official 100 degree days have happened in August/September... so less than a quarter. 

Only 5 have happened this late (or later) in a calendar year.

Ahh, yes, that was the stat that perked my interest...only 5 have happened this late....let's make it 6!

[Andie]

Why do I even bother?

[MinnesotaSnow]

It’s supposed to be day one of the heat here but stuck on the right (or wrong) side of the front. 75 and muggy.

[hawkstwelve]

After topping out with a high of 95 and a HI of a sweltering 120, we are still sitting at 83 with a humidity of 90% at 11pm. It feels almost like a sauna out there. Already looking forward to the end of this on Friday!

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/63 there were 0 HDD’s and 6 CDD’s there was no rain fall and the sun was out 67% of the time. For today the average H/L is now down to 80/61 the record high of 98 was set in 1936 and the record low of 44 was set in 1894,1897 and 1923. The record rain fall amount of 1.25” fell in 2001. Last year the H/L was 80/63 and there was no rain fall.

Today looks to be a nice day with highs in the upper 70’s there is a warm up on tap. Tomorrow there is a heat advisory for a very warm and humid day. That could be repeated on Thursday but we shall see. The best chance of rain comes tonight into tomorrow then it looks to be mostly dry. There could be a two day mini heat wave before we drop down it near and then below average for the weekend. If you are wondering what the record high is for Thursday it is 98 on back to back years of 1947 and 1948, it was 94 in 1962.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[tStacsh]

I'm ready for and  

[Black Hole]

At my house it looks like my peak HI was 127F when I had 102/81F. My station is right above my watered garden so it does get some TD spikes (briefly 84F). 

I see its currently 82/81 at the Tulsa airport. This humidity is awful, but without it I am guessing we would have hit 115F. 

[Andie]

They’re calling for 104 at DFW today.  
Humidity currently 50%.  
Everyone is just going through the motions until the temp eases up.  
85 at 8:30.  

[hawkstwelve]

It's already 86 degrees with a HI of 98... at 9AM.

 

[chescowxman]

Our cooler than normal summer looks to continue as we move toward the end of August. Since June 1st two-thirds or 66% of the days have seen below normal temperatures across Chester County. This upcoming Friday appears to be the only day over the next 7 days to feature above normal readings. Only Thursday looks like a chance of some showers across the area...otherwise dry and cool is the rule.

Records for today: High 99 degrees (1916) / Low 44 (1952) / Rain 2.47" (1937)