September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

ECMWF seems to be quite a bit further north with the low track than most other models. I’m curious to see if that shifts south with the 12z

[Cold Snap]

Ended up getting 1.15” yesterday. Very nice event for this early in the fall.

[the_convergence_zone]

Most of the Euro ensemble members are south of the deterministic run. 

[RentonHill]

12z Euro is a bit south

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Peak wind along Vancouver island with yesterdays storm was 94 mph.  So this storm fell just short of a Cat 2 hurricane. 

Significantly stronger than any wind gust measured from Hurricane Idalia earlier this year which was a Category 3 at landfall (69 mph on South Tybee Island).

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly stronger than any wind gust measured from Hurricane Idalia earlier this year which was a Category 3 at landfall (69 mph on South Tybee Island).

Mid-latitude cyclones eat hurricanes for breakfast. Hurricanes are finicky mesoscale systems that fall apart at the first sign of unfavorable conditions. 

[seattleweatherguy]

55 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Most of the Euro ensemble members are south of the deterministic run. 

Going south would be just rain for the Seattle area and less wind?

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Going south would be just rain for the Seattle area and less wind?

Definitely less wind north, more wind south. Probably rainy regardless.

[Cloud]

A look at the last 3 days starting on the 23rd at SEA. 
 

0.15, 0.61, 0.82R

brings totals to 2.28 MTD. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

When does @snow_wizard come back?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

When does @snow_wizard come back?

When El Niño ends. Or when extreme right wingers take over the planet. 

[Meatyorologist]

This looks great!

[iFred]

23 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Definitely less wind north, more wind south. Probably rainy regardless.

Hopefully it misses us together. Want to go through the winter without anything disruptive.

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When El Niño ends. Or when extreme right wingers take over the planet. 

[Meatyorologist]

Skies starting to turn here. You can see the base on the horizon.

[RentonHill]

Mean looking. 

[runninthruda206]

Just noticed it got noticeably darker outside the office window in UDist. Just checked the radar  

[Meatyorologist]

It's got that dawg in it!!

[ShawniganLake]

31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When El Niño ends. Or when extreme right wingers take over the planet. 

A bit surprised we haven’t seen him at all.   Though, the upcoming North Pacific blocking in October during a strengthening El Niño is probably about the worst case scenario for winter prognosticators.  

[FroYoBro]

I'll beat Dewey to the punch.

 

Breezy!

[iFred]

View from work in Kirkland

 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Mean looking. 

Great pic.

[Meatyorologist]

Toiling and broiling

[SnowySeeker50]

Getting dark out here

[TT-SEA]

[Meatyorologist]

That was some loud thunder. Epic

[T-Town]

It’s coming. 

[Omegaraptor]

[Phil]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Peak wind along Vancouver island with yesterdays storm was 94 mph.  So this storm fell just short of a Cat 2 hurricane. 

Would need to be sustained winds over 95mph, not gusts.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Mid-latitude cyclones eat hurricanes for breakfast. Hurricanes are finicky mesoscale systems that fall apart at the first sign of unfavorable conditions. 

Lmao. I’m sure this is tongue in cheek, but having experienced both, I can say without a doubt that the focused violence within a hurricane is astronomically more intense than any middle latitude cyclone. And it ain’t even close.

[Cloud]

incoming!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregon department of AG going with 51-52, 65-66, 72-73 as their ANALog years. I see PDO remains quite negative. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly stronger than any wind gust measured from Hurricane Idalia earlier this year which was a Category 3 at landfall (69 mph on South Tybee Island).

Well that’s because it made landfall in a desolate area without any observing stations.

Tybee Island is literally 200+ miles away from the landfall point, almost into SC. It made landfall on the FL gulf coast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like ENSO has just about peaked... Some models show it dropping, if that's the case we may not see an ONI above 1.5C. 

[MossMan]

Thunder.

[Cloud]

Boom!  ️ 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon department of AG going with 51-52, 65-66, 72-73 as their ANALog years. I see PDO remains quite negative. 

Any legitimate analog pool should include 1997/98. And others.

The PDO is completely and utterly useless for seasonal projections. Any correlations there are due to the fact PMM/ENSO structure often projects onto the EOF for PDO.

[the_convergence_zone]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lmao. I’m sure this is tongue in cheek, but having experienced both, I can say without a doubt that the focused violence within a hurricane is astronomically more intense than any middle latitude cyclone. And it ain’t even close.

Haha yeah, the inner core of a strong hurricane certainly contains the most intense weather on the planet or close to it. But it's a fairly small area that gets the worst of it. I've been in the outer bands and the most impressive thing about them was the rainfall production. As a midlatitude-minded I personally find extratropical transition to be the most interesting aspect of hurricanes. I did research on hurricanes for several years but got bored with it, I clearly wasn't a Hurricane Person. Although now I work on severe convective storms and I'm not a Storm Chaser either LOL. I'm just a generalist. 

[MossMan]

Heavy duty! Much different from last fall. 

[Cloud]

This is great! It’s been a while since I’ve heard a good rolling thunder. 3 in last 15 mins.