October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

A lot of longer range mets are writing November off as a warm month, but our models and the Euro seem to disagree. The coldest GFS (18z) puts a monster snow down in the day 10-13 range. Not boring at all. 

Jaster is right. I don't think there is a pattern that keeps the Ozarks in winter all season like the one we have had develop over the last few weeks. We'll be under the brunt of every cold front and it looks like a good healthy amount of backdooring and draining off the plateau if the GLs and interior Appalachians holds the cold down. 

Verbatim, I get about 4 days of the next 14 above avg before it crashes again. 

[Madtown]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Verbatim, would be a nice windstorm over here. And right on time for the gales of November

wowzers...that would be a bit much atm

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS Charleston WV posted this just a bit ago. The upcoming cold will not likely threaten any of these.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 48/41. There was 0.19” of rain fall. There were 20 HDD’s and there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 55/38 the record high of 79 was set in 1950 and the record low of 18 was set in 1988. The record rain fall of 2.83” fell in 2009 and the record snow fall of 1.5” fell in 1923. Last year the H/L was 62/36.

[chescowxman]

The cold front that slipped through over the weekend is trying to move back north this morning which has caused some light rain. Since yesterday we have received 0.22" of rain. There may be quite the spread in temperatures early this afternoon as temps may be near 60 across NW Chester County and near 70 across southern portions of the county. High temps should occur around 2pm. The cold front will slice though the county from NW to SE during the 2pm hour with temps falling quickly through the 50's and reaching the 40's by 7pm across much of the county. Much colder weather with temps remaining in the 40's for highs for Tuesday through Thursday. We have a slight chance of some wet snow mixed with rain toward Wednesday morning. Widespread freezing temperatures are likely both Thursday and Friday morning before temps rise to near normal levels by next weekend.

Records for today: High 82 (1946) / Low 21 (1928) / Rain 1.48" (1935)

[Tom]

Happy Monday on this chilly and breezy morning.  Daylight has yet to emerge out here as the sun rises around 6:45am but you'll begin to see some light around 6:20am.  Winter has arrived in the northern part of the state where temps are in the Single Digits up near Flagstaff...Brrrr!!

 

My goodness, this Air has some "umpf"....low 10's in the Goodland, KS area???  That's what a snow pack and Arctic Air will do for ya!

 

[Clinton]

I had my first hard freeze as the temp dropped to 27. Going for a record low Wednesday morning. 

[Iceresistance]

30°F for me as the low.

 

Lowest I've seen in the state was 12°F in the Panhandle.

[Timmy Supercell]

Front was still kind of moving through here, so it's cooling as I type right now in eastern KY.. 

Was 59 a few hours ago, now feels like 49 ish.

[MIKEKC]

4.63 inches of rain for my backyard her in KC. Some totals in the city hit a bit over 7 inches for the week. The wet week ended with a period of moderate snow yesterday and our first freeze this morning.

Much needed rain and it was widespread in the drought areas of KS and MO.

[mlgamer]

I ended up with 1.23" overall from the recent rains. Glad to have that but could have used much more. Now back to dry weather for the next week at least...

[Hoosier]

First flakes of the season here tomorrow.  This is one of those high confidence, low/no accumulation setups.  Like I'd be stunned if it didn't snow.  Could even have a window of lake effect precip.

[Andie]

Currently 48*.  
Tonight 38,  Tomorrow 56, a low of 32.  
Windy, blustery  28-38mph. 
Nice little cold front. 

[Bryan1117]

48 minutes ago, Andie said:

Currently 48*.  
Tonight 38,  Tomorrow 56, a low of 32.  
Windy, blustery  28-38mph. 
Nice little cold front. 

After all the relentless heat this past summer and fall, it has to be a bit of a shock to the system to drop into the 30’s and 40’s down there. 
 

 

[Madtown]

1-3" here tonight...10" about 40mi north last night. Kiss of death for the winter imo. 

[westMJim]

Happy Halloween! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/34. There was a trace of rain fall and no snow was reported. The sun was out 17% of the time and the highest wind speed was 31 MPH out of the W. The current temperature here in MBY is 36 degrees with cloudy skies. So at this time any snow that falls will not stick unless it falls very heavy.

Now as for some past Halloween weather conditions here in Grand Rapids The average H/L is 54/38 the record High is 79 set in 1950 and the record low of 20 was set in 1988. The wettest was in 1994 with 1.27” and the most snow fell in 1917 with 1.5”.  Some other years with snow fall are 2017 with 0.4” 1932 with 0.3” and 2019 with 0.1” The coldest high was just 32 in 1917 other cold highs were 37 1996 and 1906 The high has reached 70 or better on ten Halloweens the last time was 1979 with a high of 76. Last year the H/L was 59/49 and there was 0.09” of rain fall.

[westMJim]

11 hours ago, Madtown said:

1-3" here tonight...10" about 40mi north last night. Kiss of death for the winter imo. 

That very well may be the case

[Niko]

Yesterday I saw my first snowshowers of the season. Did not last too long, but it was great seeing them fall under that gray, ominous cloud.

Currently, at 27F under mostly cloudy skies w/ more snowshowers later today and tanite. I do not expect any accumulations. Highs do not get outta the 30s. Tbh: those 70s last week felt real good and now all of this is a shock to our bodies. I wouldn't have mind a few more days in the 60s and 70s. Oh well.....

[westMJim]

Snow has just started here. But it is still warm with a temperature of 38. Whoops just like it started it has now stopped snowing so will call it a snow shower. 

[gimmesnow]

15 hours ago, Madtown said:

1-3" here tonight...10" about 40mi north last night. Kiss of death for the winter imo. 

Never a good sign to get snow in October around these parts.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Never a good sign to get snow in October around these parts.

I've seen this thrown around by various folks... wonder how much of a connection there really is.  I can't imagine that getting a trace or a few tenths in October would portend how winter goes, but would be interesting to see how much of a connection there is between more significant October snows and winter.

[tStacsh]

Quite the LES event for places NW of my area about 30 -60 miles.  Nothing here.  But checking Muskegon Webcams looks like they are puking snow.  I'd expect record snowfall in that area.   6" plus.  

[gimmesnow]

47 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've seen this thrown around by various folks... wonder how much of a connection there really is.  I can't imagine that getting a trace or a few tenths in October would portend how winter goes, but would be interesting to see how much of a connection there is between more significant October snows and winter.

They changed the UW Madison climatology site. They used to have these really nice charts that showed snow throughout each year. But I can't find them anymore. They were really good for seeing when it snowed in a year and how that year did for total snowfall.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, found them on archive.org

We had an early snowfall in 2019 and then it proceeded to not snow in Madison until the new year.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220707012928/https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html

Looks like an early start rarely means above average snowfall for the year. But That's not the only sign that winter won't get that much snow.

[Hoosier]

Getting a little more interested in the lake effect setup around here this evening/overnight.  The airmass looks cold enough/I think I'm inland enough for precip type to not really be a concern.  My main question is how transient it is.  Hi-res models sort of want to hang the band up around here or a bit east.  Anybody that can manage to get a couple inches could start to have some problems as many trees still have significant foliage.  

[tStacsh]

Grand Haven 4" at the beach.  water temps are still in the low 50's.  So that's a crazy scenario that it's accumulating right at the shore and not rain/melting right away.  That's how hard it is snowing.   Muskegon at 5".   

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Grand Haven 4" at the beach.  water temps are still in the low 50's.  So that's a crazy scenario that it's accumulating right at the shore and not rain/melting right away.  That's how hard it is snowing.   Muskegon at 5".   

Per obs, looks like the wind there is actually offshore.  That certainly helps.

[tStacsh]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Per obs, looks like the wind there is actually offshore.  That certainly helps.

Yeah almost an easterly surface wind.  Nice convergence band.  Keeping the band from moving inland towards my area.  Hoping to score a brief trace or so this evening. 

[tStacsh]

Reports now of 7-8" of snow in the Grand Haven/Muskegon area.   Power outages are plentiful.  Heavy heavy weight to the snow.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Reports now of 7-8" of snow in the Grand Haven/Muskegon area.   Power outages are plentiful.  Heavy heavy weight to the snow.  

Kzoo at this time in 1997 - same results. Quite a bit a virga out there, but getting closer to dark so we may get a dusting even around this area. This certainly didn't fizzle like some clippers, but I need it to have legs obviously. 

[jaster220]

18z NAM-12K liking my area about 7 pm, as said after sunset.

[jaster220]

Must be quite the memorable Halloween. I was up there not too long ago (September), and folks were beaching and swimming.

000
NWUS53 KGRR 311846
LSRGRR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
246 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     Snow             1 SSE Grand Haven       43.04N 86.22W
10/31/2023  M6.8 inch        Ottawa             MI   Broadcast Media

            Snow ongoing.

[jaster220]

Temps drop nicely under the snow shield:

[jaster220]

Went from first freeze to first snowing obs in only 7 days!

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Went from first freeze to first snowing obs in only 7 days!

GEFS looking better for you to get  some precip over the next 10 days hopefully things will get a little wetter for ya.

[MKEstorm]

First snow of the season today…and hopefully many more!

Happy Halloween  

[Hoosier]

Winter wx advisory here.  Low expectations, but suppose there's enough to justify given the potential for a period of pretty intense conditions and it being the first snow of the season.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

18z NAM-12K liking my area about 7 pm, as said after sunset.

 

NAM Fail at 7 pm. There is a band a county and a half north heading this way but it may fall victim to the down-sloping so common here in these set-ups. Saw that a few times already since moving here. UHI doesn't help either ofc

[jaster220]

On a side note, DTW tanked to 27F by 3 am then rose to 31F when clouds set in. That's by far the coldest official reading at the 1st tier site for Detroit. 9 hours aob freezing last night as well. 

[Niko]

Well, its a blanket of white outside (mostly grassy surfaces and cartops) and its snowing moderately also.Temps are at 32F and going into the 20s tanite once again.

This has turned out to be a "White Halloween." A cold one as well.

[Niko]

Light Snow Fog/Mist

33°F