TT-SEA Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Cool view from Space Needle of some showers over the Sound. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: When should we commence in the start of model riding season? Choose below. Tonight 00z runs. October 12-15 October 16-19 October 20-23 October 24-27 October 28-31 20-23. Give us plenty of time to track this bad boy 4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, RentonHill said: 20-23. Give us plenty of time to track this bad boy Seems perfect to me. That will be fun. 00z ECMWF (Halloween night) in 464 hours 41 minutes 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Some of what is being shown in Oregon and SW WA has happened already. That's correct, Tim. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: When should we commence in the start of model riding season? Choose below. Tonight 00z runs. October 12-15 October 16-19 October 20-23 October 24-27 October 28-31 Night shift starting Nov 1 Rob? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 The 12z EPS has a full blown canonical niño pattern week-2. The source region(s) where continental polar air masses are produced is universally warmer than average thanks to the +TNH/+PNA pattern. Verbatim this would also destructively interfere with the -PDO/-PMM SSTA signature over the NPAC, so could see that begin to erode as well. 1 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Also very impressive coupled +IOD regime. Those easterlies @ 60E are the dominant LP feature at the moment. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Night shift starting Nov 1 Rob? Hey bruh! Yeah, if not a tad sooner. 00z GFS in 6 hours 8 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Made it to the 1.00" mark for the storm thanks to this ongoing shower. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Just a gargantuan, complete discharge of the IPWP ongoing right now. +IOD shuts down any and all Indonesian throughflow from E-IO sector of IPWP, while EPAC Niño drains the WPAC sector. All the heat which built up in the WPAC/IPWP due to 3yrs of La Niña is now being released, all at once. Result is the crazy spike in global temps and historic spike in emitted/outgoing LW radiation @ top of atmosphere (see CERES measurements..crazy stuff). Probably the most impressive heat release since (at least) 1997/98. Possibly since WWII. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Convection is going to be completely shut down over maritime continent/IPWP this winter. Just a complete flip of the script vs the last 3 years. Even if the expressed El Niño SSTA signature is not exceptionally strong, this is the most “anti-La Niña” state physically possible over the WPAC/IPWP domain, which is the backbone of tropical forcing on all relevant timescales. Even unfiltered RMM/MJO plots might not reach phase-4/5 all winter. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Just a gargantuan, complete discharge of the IPWP ongoing right now. +IOD shuts down any and all Indonesian throughflow from E-IO sector of IPWP, while EPAC Niño drains the WPAC sector. All the heat which built up in the WPAC/IPWP due to 3yrs of La Niña is now being released, all at once. Result is the crazy spike in global temps and historic spike in emitted/outgoing LW radiation @ top of atmosphere (see CERES measurements..crazy stuff). Probably the most impressive heat release since (at least) 1997/98. Possibly since WWII. I think that the cessation of sulfide aerosol emissions over the Atlantic, in conjunction with the massive influx of water vapor into the Stratosphere due to Hunga Tonga, has a good deal to do with how much we've warmed in the last year. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: Convection is going to be completely shut down over maritime continent/IPWP this winter. Just a complete flip of the script vs the last 3 years. Even if the expressed El Niño SSTA signature is not exceptionally strong, this is the most “anti-La Niña” state physically possible over the WPAC/IPWP domain, which is the backbone of tropical forcing on all relevant timescales. Even unfiltered RMM/MJO plots might not reach phase-4/5 all winter. So a dud here in the PNW. Let's get it out of the way. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I think that the cessation of sulfide aerosol emissions over the Atlantic, in conjunction with the massive influx of water vapor into the Stratosphere due to Hunga Tonga, has a good deal to do with how much we've warmed in the last year. You referenced Tonga. Some on here think it has no impact and should never be mentioned. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: You referenced Tonga. Some on here think it has no impact and should never be mentioned. The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo... 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo... Agreed. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 This is pretty cool. 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo... What's fascinating is that nobody really knows how much of it of the signal is from the various components (Tonga, aerosols, ENSO, and climate change). If I had to rank them (globally), it seems like the magnitude is: (1) ENSO; (2) Tonga; (3/4 tie) climate change and sulfate aerosols. With the latter two being on the order of 0.1 C globally and the former two both potentially being on the order of several tenths of a degree C. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The mechanisms are pretty obvious. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. Ash and sulfur emissions from volcanic eruptions are reflective aerosols. Much more of the former was released than the latter, ergo... 100% agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Well rip! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 We hadn't had a tornado in Clark County in 2 years and 2 weeks! Until today in La Center, about an EF (-1) winds I would guess 45-60 mph lol We'll take it! 5 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, MWG said: Well rip! Sad 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: So a dud here in the PNW. Let's get it out of the way. Who knows, but the fact we have had a pretty good winning streak of snowy winters plus Niño being in play makes me strongly suspect we’re in for a dud this season. So be it. Sometimes, duds happen. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Took this cool picture of a cloud with an anvil shape. 6 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Who knows, but the fact we have had a pretty good winning streak of snowy winters plus Niño being in play makes me strongly suspect we’re in for a dud this season. So be it. Sometimes, duds happen. Not everyone likes snow and cold. I've got a new lawn, garden work, and some early spring projects I want to take care of. Bring on the Med! 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 .61 today and 1.47 for the month. Currently 58 degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, MWG said: Well rip! Astronomical event occurring between October and April = solid sheet of slate gray overcast everywhere north of Redding 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 I saw a post from Mark Nelsen on Facebook. There was a EF0 that hit La Center about an hour ago. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Stormy. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 38 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said: I saw a post from Mark Nelsen on Facebook. There was a EF0 that hit La Center about an hour ago. Demonic 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Picked up an inch of rain between yesterday and today totals here at Eastside Tacoma 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 0.50” yesterday and 0.48” today. 1.52” this month. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Brrrr. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said: I saw a post from Mark Nelsen on Facebook. There was a EF0 that hit La Center about an hour ago. Here's a video of it: 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 South of Seattle is going to rock this winter with major weather events. Up here is going to be No Man’s Land Dullsville U.S.A. 1 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted October 12, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Potatoes from our garden! 14 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 21 minutes ago, MossMan said: Potatoes from our garden! We have tons of potatoes to still harvest out there... so good! 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 9 hours ago, RentonHill said: 20-23. Give us plenty of time to track this bad boy 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 Up to 2.12" on the month now. 54F with some light rain. 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Up to 2.12" on the month now. 54F with some light rain. Early blessings 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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