OttumwaSnomow Posted October 24, 2023 Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Ugh!!! This week of widespread heavy rain is going down the toilet. Round #1, today, missed north. Round #2, the tropical remnants, will mostly miss south. Round #3, the frontal flare-up, will miss well north. Round #4, the main low, will likely drop the best rain nw. Thank God Cedar Rapids got hit good by the last wet system, because this week is trending more like the rest of 2023. I am absolutely not surprised. Takes some kind of a miracle to get 1 inch event in the Ottumwa area. We need a stalled front running west to east about 20 miles into Missouri and preferably in the 4 to 8 am timeframe. Almost ANY OTHER STUPID SCENARIO AND IM FORTUNATE TO GET .50!!!!! THIS PLACE IS INSANE. It did this same thing in 2017 era I went 16 months with 1 event over 1 inch. Why!!!!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 24, 2023 Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 19 hours ago, Tom said: Mother Nature's blessings for the central CONUS... That's an absolute blessing. Hoping Louisiana can get in on the moisture as we go forward as well. They're in significant drought. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 Rain and thunderstorms from the remnants of Norma should move in early this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning. I'm expecting between .5 to 1 inch from this. The strong cold front and main upper low still look like a big hit for many. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 Nice steady rain falling ATM. Some moderate to heavy bands look to be moving in soon. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted October 24, 2023 Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Nice steady rain falling ATM. Some moderate to heavy bands look to be moving in soon. Bet my last dollar that kc rain DOESNT MAKE IT TO OTTUMWA IOWA. Maybe .10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted October 24, 2023 Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Nice steady rain falling ATM. Some moderate to heavy bands look to be moving in soon. The heavy band has just passed thru lawrence and we got about a quick .30 in that 30 minutes. looks like after this it might be it for the rest of the night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said: The heavy band has just passed thru lawrence and we got about a quick .30 in that 30 minutes. looks like after this it might be it for the rest of the night Looks like I may have another band or 2 move through before it tapers of. Sitting at .35 atm. Heaviest rain looks to be Thursday, I could sure use some heavy rain to generate some runoff. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Bet my last dollar that kc rain DOESNT MAKE IT TO OTTUMWA IOWA. Maybe .10 Keeping my fingers crossed for ya! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 I wish some folks would stop leaning on models and use some common sense. I know that microclimates exist. And so do things like "drought begets drought" that is particularly true in the summer months. But in my 17 years of living in this area its very mysterious to me. How can model be so horribly wrong for one particular area? Most mets could care less as to if these things exist or why. Particularly in these humble mostly rural areas. If my town was a city of 200k.. this would be daily conversation! Trust me theres something odd about SE iowa particularly Ottumwa Bloomfield, Centerville, Fairfield weatherwise 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 The wind is rocking right now, currently getting gust of 35 to 40mph. There appears to be a narrow line of training storms developing along and east of I-35. Looks like a narrow band of very heavy rainfall totals may set up right through KC. Hi-Res models showing this pretty well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said: I wish some folks would stop leaning on models and use some common sense. I know that microclimates exist. And so do things like "drought begets drought" that is particularly true in the summer months. But in my 17 years of living in this area its very mysterious to me. How can model be so horribly wrong for one particular area? Most mets could care less as to if these things exist or why. Particularly in these humble mostly rural areas. If my town was a city of 200k.. this would be daily conversation! Trust me theres something odd about SE iowa particularly Ottumwa Bloomfield, Centerville, Fairfield weatherwise Feeling your pain here as well OttumwaSnomow, as we both seem to be stuck in this neverending pattern of missing out on moisture from these powerhouse storm systems. Over the weekend, the models were showing a long duration rain event that should have started earlier today and was supposed to last through Thursday night. Here in Omaha we didn't even get a sprinkle today, and now things seem to be drying up for tomorrow as the precipitation splits north and south around here as usual. What was looking like a solid 2-3" rainfall across Eastern Nebraska might end up being an inch or less... again! As much as things change with the weather... it sure seems to stay the same here. Hopefully I am wrong and the cold front delivers the goods later tomorrow night and on Thursday - I am not optimistic though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 .62" up here today. Local mets earlier had most of it south but its been a rainy evening here and even some thunder. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 We’re sitting at 72*. Intermittent rain. More tomorrow. Thus is what we needed. It’s all slowly soaking into very thirsty ground. Another day tomorrow starting in the afternoon most likely. Looking forward to the total on this event. 2 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 26 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Feeling your pain here as well OttumwaSnomow, as we both seem to be stuck in this neverending pattern of missing out on moisture from these powerhouse storm systems. Over the weekend, the models were showing a long duration rain event that should have started earlier today and was supposed to last through Thursday night. Here in Omaha we didn't even get a sprinkle today, and now things seem to be drying up for tomorrow as the precipitation splits north and south around here as usual. What was looking like a solid 2-3" rainfall across Eastern Nebraska might end up being an inch or less... again! As much as things change with the weather... it sure seems to stay the same here. Hopefully I am wrong and the cold front delivers the goods later tomorrow night and on Thursday - I am not optimistic though. Whats your precip deficit for 2023? We are near 17 inches! And I remember in August 2022 we had a 15 inch deficit! The deficits in moisture going back to 2012 would blow the mind here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Whats your precip deficit for 2023? We are near 17 inches! And I remember in August 2022 we had a 15 inch deficit! The deficits in moisture going back to 2012 would blow the mind here. Wow, that's a ridiculous deficit and it puts things in perspective... here in the Omaha metro our deficit is anywhere from 6 to 8 inches for 2023 so far (on top of the 10+ inch deficit from 2022). It would be nice to get a nice west to east bowling ball type system to dump on Eastern Nebraska and all of Iowa, however that doesn't seem to be in the cards for us at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 GFS trending further south with the Saturday system. At this rate it might end up near @CentralNebWeather 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 CMC also trending further south with that Saturday snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Next round of showers and maybe a thunderstorm moving in tomorrow, with the peak being the afternoon hours through Thursday morning. Looks like a break and then more action Saturday-Sunday. Pretty hefty storm totals on top of the 2/3 of an inch I got today. 2 1 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 What's interesting is that we are suddenly looking marginal for mixed precip Sunday. I mean I would definitely still say its unlikely, maybe a 5% chance or something, but its not 0. GFS has 925 mb temps of -1C for much of the day Sunday with moderate rain and a gusty north wind. It drops temps to 35F or so. The CMC is similar. Several GEFS ensemble members showing mixed precip of sleet or ZR. So in the end, yeah, probably nothing...but its going to be mighty raw. But I could easily see some mixed precip making it down into Kansas or western OK. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Comparing the 00z GEFS to earlier guidance we can see the move towards a more consolidated trough which is likely why we've also seen a shift south in the cold and better dynamics over the cold air. 2 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Off and on rain overnight has brought my rainfall total up to .75 inches. The rain has been on all night along I-35 from Wichita to KC where several flood warning are in effect. Curious to hear what the totals are for the KC guys. More heavy rain in the area today and tonight, it is more than welcome to target mby. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Hi-Res models have been doing a good job with identifying where the heavy bands will set up. So here is what the have for today and tomorrow as round 2 pulls out of the SW. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: GFS trending further south with the Saturday system. At this rate it might end up near @CentralNebWeather NWS Hastings morning disco just mentioned that snow forecasts are trending south. Even mention potential for 1-3 to 2-4” of snow Saturday. They said temp forecast continues to also be lowered. Stay tuned. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Just had a quick moving thunderstorm come through that dropped a surprising 0.15”, most forecasts had kept rainfall south and east of me. Update, got 0.31” as I just checked my app. Very foggy and misty right now with a temp of 47 degrees. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: NWS Hastings morning disco just mentioned that snow forecasts are trending south. Even mention potential for 1-3 to 2-4” of snow Saturday. They said temp forecast continues to also be lowered. Stay tuned. 6z GFS has this for ya. 0z Euro 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 71-82 today. Rain out west on the way. Then partly cloudy. It’s been really nice getting all this slow soaking rain. 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 KC is winning! Beautiful rains from this storm and it appears we are in for more. I'm at 1.89 inches near the NE side of KC, but there are totals ranging from 1-4 inches across the city with the heaviest on the south side of KC. We sure needed this. Now, could we see the back edge produce some sleet/snow by Sunday morning. No freeze in KC yet, flowers are still in full bloom. That may change by Monday/Tuesday morning. We'll see if some of the forecast lows of 25 verify. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 I have received only 0.37" so far while areas less than 60 miles from me have flash flooding. Whatever long term weather pattern that causes me always to be on the short end is still in place. @OttumwaSnomow and @Bryan1117 I hear you guys. I too believe that micro climates exist. An area roughly in a five mile radius around me has missed the beneficial rains pretty much every time this year. This goes on and on. It's hard to explain this to people because it seems so ridiculous. It's especially noticeable in winter. It'll be 10 years in February that I have had a snowfall above 6" while areas near me have done much better. It's all very strange. 3 1 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Hey guys, I also missed out on some showers/storms that formed over E AZ and the White Mountains. I loved looking at the cloud formations to my east but all I got was a nice easterly outflow in the evening while I was grilling some salmon and having some dessert on the patio deck. Anyway, I'm rooting for you that have missed out on the rainfall... @OttumwaSnomow, tonight/tomorrow is your day... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 45 minutes ago, mlgamer said: I have received only 0.37" so far while areas less than 60 miles from me have flash flooding. Whatever long term weather pattern that causes me always to be on the short end is still in place. @OttumwaSnomow and @Bryan1117 I hear you guys. I too believe that micro climates exist. An area roughly in a five mile radius around me has missed the beneficial rains pretty much every time this year. This goes on and on. It's hard to explain this to people because it seems so ridiculous. It's especially noticeable in winter. It'll be 10 years in February that I have had a snowfall above 6" while areas near me have done much better. It's all very strange. That area to your south seems to always get hit, same as se Jackson County who got several inches this morning. Hope ya have better luck tonight and through the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 @mlgamer...look at radar, a huge area of rain just to your SW...I think you are about to go up in the rain totals...very slow moving. Some reports of 4.5 inches of rain on the SW side of KC. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Models now show the final weekend system will almost totally miss Iowa to the south. Ugh. For a week models showed several waves of rain across Iowa, producing widespread 2-3". Instead, the Thursday wave will be the only rain we get over the entire week. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 39 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: @mlgamer...look at radar, a huge area of rain just to your SW...I think you are about to go up in the rain totals...very slow moving. Some reports of 4.5 inches of rain on the SW side of KC. Maybe by calling out Mother Nature, I shamed her into making it rain here...lol. Then again, it appears the bulk of this heavy rain could miss me to the NW. Gets pretty comical... Check out this graphic from NWS Topeka. I'm in the purple area (.25 - .50) just SW of Topeka. Pretty crazy totals in places. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Close up of Nebraska for this weekend on the 12z GFS. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Close up of Nebraska for this weekend on the 12z GFS. Pretty close to my doorstep west of Kearney. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 12z GFS and GEFS stopped the southward slide of the snow totals on Saturday, both correcting slightly to the north versus the previous two runs. Sioux City might end up the in-between sweet spot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 So far here .10 after 72 hours of forecasted rain. Time will tell what next 4 days bring. So I researched some other locations around the area. Many in Iowa have 2023 deficits of 10 to 13 inches. Places like dsm, Marshalltown, waterloo. Some much smaller deficits like Ames 4 inches or Lamoni. Kirksville mo about a 6 inch deficit. Kc i think 4 or 5 inch deficit. I couldn't find Omaha? And if any deficits east of Mississippi river theyre not significant (by my standards). I saw dallas tex has around 16 inch deficit. Otm? Ottumwa airport? Almost 17 inch deficit!!! Nearly 30 inch deficit since jan 2022. This pic is my pond. Its almost dry. The green basket was on bottom and its the location a aerator. I had it dredged in 2021. I was 70% full and i had clean clear water and nice fish. Its so low I just gave up and its now a algea mess. 1 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 25, 2023 Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 12z Euro stayed steady with the axis of snowfall on Saturday and also brought back some light Halloween snow for parts of the Midwest. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 Nice rain today added another inch bringing my storm total to 1.7 inches. Hopefully I can add to this the next few days. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2023 KC continues to rack up the rainfall. I just saw a report on TV of 9.9 inches southwest of the city. Just crazy when I'm 17 inches down for the year and thrilled with the 1.7 I've gotten so far lol. WS Kansas City @NWSKansasCity Follow As of 4:48 pm the Kansas City Airport has broken its daily rainfall record for October 25th with 1.13" so far today. The old record was 1.12" from 1898. 4:51 PM · Oct 25, 2023 · 2,221 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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