November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

End of the GFS looks promising. 

Trough kind of hangs offshore though and the pattern looks like it gets stuck again. 

[Winterdog]

This is a little off topic but is a bit weather related.  There has been a small garter snake sunning himself on top of a grass pile on the south side of our well house for most days this past few weeks despite temps being in the 20’s frequently. He leaves once the sun goes away.  I’m sure somebody here can tell me if this is normal behavior for a garter snake. The pic was taken yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here’s how the month looked. I don’t have precip on here, but snowfall and depth are cells D and E. 

That has to be a borderline historic March for your area?

[The Cats Meow]

Has this been a really dry El Nino?

Usually it rains for weeks on end and my back yard floods several times.

Nice and dry with cold nights.

Odd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

That has to be a borderline historic March for your area?

Absolutely. The Silver Falls station recorded no data the first 8 days of the month and still recorded a mean of 37.2 in the March 9-31st period, which tied the March record from 1951. Our mean during that period was 37.7.

Our full month mean was 36.4 (As the first 8 days of the month was the coldest period of the month). I feel good about saying it was our coldest March in the period of record. It was also our 2nd snowiest March, behind 2012. Also beat out January 2012 to move into 4th snowiest month since I've lived here (February 2023 is #3 on that list.). 

Last winter was absolutely relentless up here. Our first snow was November 2nd, last snow was April 18th. January wasn't great, but it wasn't horrible either, still had 19 freezes and a couple light snowfalls. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 39F with some clouds. Feels like winter out there. Very nice day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've been in a meeting for about an hour, but I just looked out and it appears the fog has finally burned off.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down to 39F with some clouds. Feels like winter out there. Very nice day.

Thanks to EUG's malfunctioning sensor it looks like they will have a bogus high of 45 today.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KEUG

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Absolutely. The Silver Falls station recorded no data the first 8 days of the month and still recorded a mean of 37.2 in the March 9-31st period, which tied the March record from 1951. Our mean during that period was 37.7.

Our full month mean was 36.4 (As the first 8 days of the month was the coldest period of the month). I feel good about saying it was our coldest March in the period of record. It was also our 2nd snowiest March, behind 2012. Also beat out January 2012 to move into 4th snowiest month since I've lived here (February 2023 is #3 on that list.). 

I had sticking snow on the 25th, latest I've seen except for 2022

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

I had sticking snow on the 25th, latest I've seen except for 2022

The past two April's have been somewhat ridiculous. This topic made me think about that. 

I enjoyed April 2022 much more than this past one. It came so late, and was so historic, but April 2023 was no slouch either. Picking up 10.6" of snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43/33 at SLE so far today. We'll see if they can hang on to the 43. 

That's the nice thing with this garbage pattern in late November even up through the first couple weeks of January, you can still have some chilly days with negative departures with this rudderless crap. Once we get into February these turn into torches... 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The past two April's have been somewhat ridiculous. This topic made me think about that. 

I enjoyed April 2022 much more than this past one. It came so late, and was so historic, but April 2023 was no slouch either. Picking up 10.6" of snow. 

I am hoping that pendulum swings the other way in 2024... I like the chances.

[Dan the Weatherman]

3 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

What would the cactus one even mean?

It could represent drought or a significant dry spell, or someone downplaying a wet forecast or who doesn't want it to rain when rain is needed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am hoping that pendulum swings the other way in 2024... I like the chances.

Probably. I mean in 10 years we had a combined 4-5" of snow and now we've had close to 30" in two years. Either that or 2012-2021 was just horrible for April snow up here, but I think it's more likely the past two years were the outlier. 

March is more of a wildcard. In 2015 and 16 we had nothing, but then we had some decent snow/cold in the Nino Marches of 2019 and 2020... Though I have recently learned 2020 was not technically a Nino. 

[TT-SEA]

50/36 at SEA today with lots of sun up here.  

East wind seems to be picking up here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Officially 43/33 at SLE today. Good for a -7 departure. 

[Meatyorologist]

Might hit 70F in some downslope prone areas in SW OR.

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably. I mean in 10 years we had a combined 4-5" of snow and now we've had close to 30" in two years. Either that or 2012-2021 was just horrible for April snow up here, but I think it's more likely the past two years were the outlier. 

March is more of a wildcard. In 2015 and 16 we had nothing, but then we had some decent snow/cold in the Nino Marches of 2019 and 2020... Though I have recently learned 2020 was not technically a Nino. 

For me... by far the most depressing aspect of weather around here is when we have a cold/wet/gloomy April and May.   Probably a common feeling for most non-weather people.   Only mentioning again because talking about depressing weather seems to be popular on here.   Persistent winter=like weather when the days are really long feels so wrong.   But the exact same weather doesn't bother me at all in the late fall and winter.   Seasonal lag can be a real b*tch in the northern states.  

[Meatyorologist]

Thursday through Sunday may find highs struggling to reach 40F under a strong inversion. Freezes each night too.

[Meatyorologist]

I wonder if KSEA will end Nov below average?

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wonder if KSEA will end Nov below average?

Pretty likely with dry weather for most of the rest of the month.    Warm anomalies usually require clouds and rain at this time of year.

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

End of the GFS looks promising. 

I have to agree. But it's a long ways off and things can change but I'm hoping for the best

[T-Town]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For me... by far the most depressing aspect of weather around here is when we have a cold/wet/gloomy April and May.   Probably a common feeling for most non-weather people.   Only mentioning again because talking about depressing weather seems to be popular on here.   Persistent winter=like weather when the days are really long feels so wrong.   But the exact same weather doesn't bother me at all in the late fall and winter.   Seasonal lag can be a real b*tch in the northern states.  

By April or May I’m very ready for warm sunshine. But cold and wet in those months usually means dynamic weather so I don’t usually mind. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thursday through Sunday may find highs struggling to reach 40F under a strong inversion. Freezes each night too.

ECMWF is showing to mid to upper 40s for Thursday-Saturday when the upper levels are not really warm and there is good mixing.  I am pretty sure you are rushing the inversion set up.    Much warmer air moves in aloft on Sunday and Monday per 12Z ECMWF so that is when the inversion might strengthen but then it shows an incoming front which mixes things out quickly by Monday.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

By April or May I’m very ready for warm sunshine. But cold and wet in those months usually means dynamic weather so I don’t usually mind. 

It can be interesting and less likely to be gloomy by the water in those months.   

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

High temp of 54.5 at 2:30PM, and we're already down to 29.6! Temperatures change quite quickly here in a setup like this, always love seeing that!

 

I noticed crown point got a 71 MPH gust today at 2PM, thats pretty breezy! Anyone know if this weekend could be just as windy as today, perhaps even more windy then today, up there? Although I know what type of setups cause wind there, I'm not very good at predicting how windy... Might be a good weekend to head up there to see the wind and do a hike in the gorge! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

High temp of 54.5 at 2:30PM, and we're already down to 29.6! Temperatures change quite quickly here in a setup like this, always love seeing that!

 

I noticed crown point got a 71 MPH gust today at 2PM, thats pretty breezy! Anyone know if this weekend could be just as windy as today, perhaps even more windy then today, up there? Although I know what type of setups cause wind there, I'm not very good at predicting how windy... Might be a good weekend to head up there to see the wind and do a hike in the gorge! 

ECMWF wind map shows Saturday night and Sunday being similar to today in the gorge.  

[Phil]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Aleutian low showing up on some of the long range guidance now.  Would likely throw some body shots at the PV.   

Indeed, would help with the wave-1/displacement response starting towards the end of December. If we can get a Scandinavian high going at the same time, then I’d be excited about a bonafide SSW.

[TT-SEA]

Temp going up this evening out here... back up to 50 in North Bend with the east wind mixing things up.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Indeed, would help with the wave-1/displacement response starting towards the end of December. If we can get a Scandinavian high going at the same time, then I’d be excited about a bonafide SSW.

setting up a fun February, who would've thunk it? 

[MossMan]

Currently 38. 

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I am hoping that pendulum swings the other way in 2024... I like the chances.

Ahhh yes...just what we need. A super warm and sunny April/May to decimate the measly snowpack we do get this winter. Considering last May was more above normal than April was below normal (at least at SEA) maybe we'll get a really troughy and cool May!

[Tanis Leach]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

I had sticking snow on the 25th, latest I've seen except for 2022

I don't remember what elevation you are at. I also got snow (0.7 in) in Sherwood at 195 feet. Asking around before most said they didn't have snow if they were on the Valley floor.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

I don't remember what elevation you are at. I also got snow (0.7 in) in Sherwood at 195 feet. Asking around before most said they didn't have snow if they were on the Valley floor.

Around 250 feet

[snow_wizard]

20 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here you go. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202311200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311200600

Thank you!

I'm going to be interested to see if this Graph Cast is any good or not.  Won't take long to see for ourselves.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

setting up a fun February, who would've thunk it? 

Hard road to hoe with a Nino of this magnitude.

[snow_wizard]

This is one of those weird night where it's 38 here and 50 just 2 miles NE of here.  Ironically this is caused by the same east wind that would bring the areas that are warm tonight snow while I get just ZR or a sloppy mix here.

[Deweydog]

10 years ago RIGHT NOW things were about to turn quite ridgy.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

10 years ago RIGHT NOW things were about to turn quite ridgy.

It got cold a few weeks later! 2013-2014 has not been a discussed along. 

[iFred]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

I decided not to pursue it. There aren’t enough puke emojis in the universe to adequately convey my disgust with academic culture. What little talent I have would be put to better use elsewhere.

Did you get an invite to sit in on a program? I figure you'd make the trip to State College.