November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what was more epic is it happened over like a 2.5 week period, 61.5" in 17 days

 

 

2008-12-12	36	29	32.5	3.3	32	0	0.23	2.7	3
2008-12-13	33	10	21.5	-7.5	43	0	0.04	0.6	2
2008-12-14	10	3	6.5	-22.3	58	0	T	T	2
2008-12-15	13	0	6.5	-22.2	58	0	0.00	0.0	2
2008-12-16	8	-5	1.5	-27.1	63	0	0.00	0.0	2
2008-12-17	17	3	10.0	-18.4	55	0	0.74	12.5	2
2008-12-18	20	14	17.0	-11.3	48	0	0.61	11.1	16
2008-12-19	15	3	9.0	-19.2	56	0	0.06	1.4	18
2008-12-20	5	-18	-6.5	-34.7	71	0	T	0.2	17
2008-12-21	15	4	9.5	-18.6	55	0	0.24	5.1	16
2008-12-22	16	-2	7.0	-21.0	58	0	0.27	3.8	18
2008-12-23	12	-4	4.0	-24.0	61	0	T	1.6	18
2008-12-24	29	11	20.0	-8.0	45	0	0.29	6.1	18
2008-12-25	29	11	20.0	-8.0	45	0	0.03	1.2	20
2008-12-26	26	9	17.5	-10.4	47	0	0.09	1.4	18
2008-12-27	36	26	31.0	3.0	34	0	0.22	3.7	21
2008-12-28	36	28	32.0	4.0	33	0	0.13	T	17
2008-12-29	34	22	28.0	0.0	37	0	0.59	8.3	21
2008-12-30	30	19	24.5	-3.6	40	0	0.02	0.3	21
2008-12-31	36	23	29.5	1.4	35	0	0.08	1.5	23

Very similar amounts here. With 63” between mid December and the first few days of January.  

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Models starting to trend better for the start of Dec

Canadian ensemble is a hold out at this point. 
 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Very similar amounts here. With 63” between mid December and the first few days of January.  

if I add in the first 5 days of Jan 09 it takes the total close to 70" here

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I remember the forum was in full panic mode around this time in 2008 since the weather was crap with nothing on the horizon. The first signs of life started appearing on the models at the very end of November. 

I can't decide which was better:  Dec 2008 or Feb 2019. I think 2008, but both were amazing. I'd take a repeat.

And both had people FREAKING out before hand about how we were never going to get anything...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Canadian ensemble is a hold out at this point. 
 

Good

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I can't decide which was better:  Dec 2008 or Feb 2019. I think 2008, but both were amazing. I'd take a repeat.

And both had people FREAKING out before hand about how we were never going to get anything...

I wasn't here for 2008, but 2019 was the most snow I have ever experienced. It was incredible 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF gets very troughy by the end of the run... and wet.    Also has great support from the EPS so far.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I wonder if…Clearapathra will get any action this season. 

This is great.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I remember the forum was in full panic mode around this time in 2008 since the weather was crap with nothing on the horizon. The first signs of life started appearing on the models at the very end of November. 

Not to mention the panic mode in January 2019.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

When is this board not in a panic mode?  Even when it's snowing there is always someone panicking because it hasn't started at their house.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS continues the idea of keeping the troughing much closer to the west coast in the long range than it was showing before.    The last 5 days of the run are wetter than normal for the entire west coast with the focus of the wettest anomalies on northern CA.

[MossMan]

Since living at our current location I have had the following total snowfall accumulation… (numbers approximate)

2018-19: 35+”

2019-20: 20+”

2020-21: 20+”

2021-22: 30+”

2022-23: 30+” 

2023-24: TBD” 

[AlTahoe]

58 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I wasn't here for 2008, but 2019 was the most snow I have ever experienced. It was incredible 

Interesting that Dec 2008 wasn't terribly snowy down this way with 65" for the month but it was cold.

Feb 2019 was our snowiest month since Jan 1952 with 142" The dog loved Feb 2019 as well. 

[AbbyJr]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

A month ago I was optimistic Nov/Dec could pull something off in the arctic air department, but now the signal is much more of the mild/zonal variety, with +EPO/+NPO —> +PNA evolution from (in-situ) strong PV from December into early January.

Nothing is ever certain in LR forecasting, but I don’t see a reason to suspect a substantial deviation from El Niño climatology at this point. I’ve been looking hard for it, but the conduits thru which it could happen look more like hail mary long shots (IMO).

At least the ECMWF continues to show a weakening of the PV. While still low, looks like an increasing number of members are now showing a full wind reversal. Will be interesting to see if we can pull off a major SSW event this winter.

[Snownerd3000]

We need to see this trend

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wtf is wrong with the person who wrote and published this article?!?

 

How the heck can you have a career making articles, you spend supposedly hours on each article, often more, and then make this abomination of an article?? Wtf?!? Did they put any effort into this!?

 

 

I think I need a new career if people can get paid for, that....

Probably written by AI.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was looking at the ENSO list back to 1850. Some solid events in some of the Nino years. Though once we get into the strong category the deck definitely starts stacking against us. 

[AlTahoe]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was looking at the ENSO list back to 1850. Some solid events in some of the Nino years. Though once we get into the strong category the deck definitely starts stacking against us. 

The 1877-1878 one is interesting. Record east based, record +IOD, Record warm Atlantic. Sound familiar?

 

https://ensoreview.com/enso/1877-1878-el-nino/

[Phishy Wx]

Nino from 145 years ago?  sure seems like a great analog

[Phishy Wx]

dang its 46 out, mild day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

The 1877-1878 one is interesting. Record east based, record +IOD, Record warm Atlantic. Sound familiar?

 

https://ensoreview.com/enso/1877-1878-el-nino/

The site I was looking at actually featured that event as one of the all timers. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just checked out 1877-78 at Downtown Portland. Not a great winter. Got cold around New Year's and had a very very wet February. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1888-89 was also a Super Nino and that winter absolutely blew chunks at PDX. 

[Tyler Mode]

Looks like I'll end November around 7.33" of precip.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 hours ago, Phil said:

Big shift. And much better longwave pattern for wave driving.

Lets see if it can hold for 1 day..lol.

This X1000

Interestingly, autumn is our foggy season, and we haven’t had any fog at all so far this fall. Been so d**n dry since the summer downpours shut off in mid-September. Until today we’d had < 1” in the last 2 months. Peak foliage lasted less than a week as a result.

I thought we invented it in 2013. Hasn’t heard it before then.

Oh wow, interesting. How long does it usually take for the fog to burn off in your area? Do you ever get socked in the entire day?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting.

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1727103087330857249?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Very impressive considering it’s still in experimental mode. Google Deepmind is going to revolutionize weather prediction systems around the world. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, GobBluth said:

Are Graphcast maps available to public?

Here’s the link for the GraphCast (Google Deepmind) model for North America. This one shows 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature. There are other parameters on the website too.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202311221200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311221800

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Very impressive considering it’s still in experimental mode. Google Deepmind is going to revolutionize weather prediction systems around the world. 

I did read that it was far behind the ensembles though, especially the EPS.  And in the mid to long range,  the ensembles are more important.

And it's also since its a low resolution, it won't be useful in short term forecasts and precip totals, etc.

But still, this is only going to get better and better.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z has a nice swirl off the coast next weekend

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

18z has a nice swirl off the coast next weekend

And an even bigger swirl behind it. But it is in the rug pull range... so don't get too excited. 

[RentonHill]

4 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

I guess I wouldn't be too upset with a December 2008 repeat...

I wonder if he only had 16 years of data and 2008 isn’t actually the last year it was this bad 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[snow_wizard]

The models are far from terrible today.  A lengthy cold snap and then the possibility of some -PNA action a bit down the road.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are advertising PNA dropping to sub -1 during week two now.  In the mean time it looks like about a week of cold / dry weather coming up.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are far from terrible today.  A lengthy cold snap and then the possibility of some -PNA action a bit down the road.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are advertising PNA dropping to sub -1 during week two now.  In the mean time it looks like about a week of cold / dry weather coming up.

You've become quite the dry mizer as you've grown older.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

How well does this current weather pattern compare to November 2008? I remember it being quite dry as well, but being dry isn't enough for it to be a good analog to get me excited for this December.

 

I remember our snow depth peaking at 43" on December 23rd. And I believe on Christmas it was 39" with some fresh snow falling. It was amazing, haven't had a Christmas as good as that one since then. Would be nice if that happened, as I am hosting for Christmas this year, nothings better then taking the whole family skiing and sledding on Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You've become quite the dry mizer as you've grown older.

I can't imagine someone who loves cold more anyone else on the planet has ever cheered for rain/clouds in the cold season unless its in the hope that an AR event leads to an arctic blast.   

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can't imagine someone who loves cold more anyone else on the planet has ever cheered for rain/clouds in the cold season unless its in the hope that an AR event leads to an arctic blast.   

It seems like he cheers for dry weather more than he used to in all seasons.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

It seems like he cheers for dry weather more than he used to in all seasons.

I am not sure about that.   Can't have clear skies and chilly nights when its raining.

[Kolk1604]

Surprised no one posted this 

[Cold Snap]

Picked up 0.37” of rain last night with the event. Up to 4.29” for the month.