November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That seems chilly even for them. 

You could say that.

[Winterdog]

Pretty chilly day with a 35/22 spread.  Hoping to hold onto a freezing temp until after midnight. Currently 32.4 and cloudy

[Phil]

That is a very nice Scandinavia Ridge signal at the end of the 18z GEFS. Also hints of a Okhotsk Sea low.

Too far out to get me excited, but would def keep an eye on it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That seems chilly even for them. 

Keep in mind Andrew that those temps are in C.

[TacomaWx]

39/30 today. First sub 40 high for the season and freeze #13. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Keep in mind Andrew that those temps are in C.

That’s still approaching -15°F.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 38/24 day here. Very solid chill for the end of November. Started out clear and frosty, but thick mid level clouds moved in by 9-10am. Ended up being a mostly cloudy and very chilly afternoon with light winds. The frost melted but there’s still ice on some puddles out there.

Overcast with a light breeze and down to 36 now. Precip type could be an interesting thing to watch tomorrow morning in some spots.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Awesome list 

that list is a boatload of turds

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That seems chilly even for them. 

In Soviet Russia they don't have cold, cold has them!

[Phil]

Lol, that’s a high of -53°F. Not record breaking for Yakutsk, but definitely legit.

[Mercurial]

My weather channel forecast looks pretty good after next week's torch.  But yes, desperation is setting in to the point of checking 10-14 day TWC forecasts lol.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:12 PM, Phil said:

If dry NW wind fell as snow we’d average 5,000”/yr. My lips are already cracked and bleeding.

 

Is most of the snow you receive there from offshore flow? Do you ever get snow with onshore flow?

[Mercurial]

Yea that was the best part about living in Hokkaido.  We got snow every time the wind blew in from the west.  So basically it snowed constantly.

[Doinko]

38/26 today

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

What if it was all snow?

Then we would be the snowiest place in the USA.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

55 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z ECMWF forecast for Moscow. Death spiral into the grips of the Siberian High. 

Putin gonna his a** off. He needs to share some of that vodka Arctic air.

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Is most of the snow you receive there from offshore flow? Do you ever get snow with onshore flow?

All big snows have an onshore flow/fetch, usually a NE wind at the surface. It’s the only way to get moisture in here.

Offshore (W/NW) flow is the enemy. Downsloping off the Appalachians warms/dries the boundary layer and kills precipitation.

Exceptions are Alberta clippers (less common these days) and snow squalls under deep 500mb troughs, but neither of those produce heavy accumulations.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol, that’s a high of -53°F. Not record breaking for Yakutsk, but definitely legit.

Good luck cooking food outside in that weather.

[Jbolin]

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That seems chilly even for them. 

Hold please, I have Yakutsk on the other line 

[MWG]

 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Good luck cooking food outside in that weather.

they'll be ok, they also cook inside

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Hard to disagree with this. Definitely the favored outcome following the -WPO response.

My god what an epic pattern for East Asia. The North American equivalent of EPO/NAO ridge merger with the entire TPV trapped in S/SW Canada. Jealous af.

 

IF I'm reading that right, that looks like a lot of snow for our mountains.  Strong jet, but not the warm pineapple express, so snow levels would be at normal levels.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

All big snows have an onshore flow/fetch, usually a NE wind at the surface. It’s the only way to get moisture in here.

Offshore (W/NW) flow is the enemy. Downsloping off the Appalachians warms/dries the boundary layer and kills precipitation.

Exceptions are Alberta clippers (less common these days) and snow squalls under deep 500mb troughs, but neither of those produce heavy accumulations.

Hmm interesting. So sort of opposite here. My biggest snows need an East wind. I need to experience an East coast snowstorm someday, preferably a Nor’easter.

[MossMan]

37/28 on the day. Currently 32. 

[Phishy Wx]

26/20 day. COLD

currently 25

[snow_wizard]

Not sure what the ECMWF was smoking today, but it completely missed the cloud cover we had.  Really strange for that model.

Currently 34 in spite of the clouds.  Really impressive.

[snow_wizard]

It's going to be interesting to see how much of the snow that falls in the mountains over the next few days will survive the torch next week.  Looks really ugly for a couple of days there.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure what the ECMWF was smoking today, but it completely missed the cloud cover we had.  Really strange for that model.

Currently 34 in spite of the clouds.  Really impressive.

Worked out perfectly with the clouds rolling in about 2hrs after daybreak and then clearing out at sunset…Kept things nice and cold today! 

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

IF I'm reading that right, that looks like a lot of snow for our mountains.  Strong jet, but not the warm pineapple express, so snow levels would be at normal levels.

That looks more like a warm/SW flow pattern to me. Almost all of Canada would be torching. Though I suppose it’s more of a spectrum than an either-or.

It’s definitely not a cold pattern, though.

[umadbro]

37/24 today. Seems like the models overdid temps by about 6-10 degrees throughout the valley. 32 currently. Hoping the GEM is right for once tomorrow.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Frost has melted, but it looked like this yesterday afternoon driving through. Too bad I couldn't get my kid to take a picture this morning too. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure what the ECMWF was smoking today, but it completely missed the cloud cover we had.  Really strange for that model.

Currently 34 in spite of the clouds.  Really impressive.

Yeah, I felt sure it would warm up with those clouds rolling in from the south this morning, but it has stayed surprisingly cold. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Frost has melted, but it looked like this yesterday afternoon driving through. Too bad I couldn't get my kid to take a picture this morning too. 

Have Cliff yell at your son.  By far, your name is my favorite on this site!

[Cold Snap]

Had a high of just 36 today. 36/25 day for me. Down to 32 now.

[Phil]

58 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Hmm interesting. So sort of opposite here. My biggest snows need an East wind. I need to experience an East coast snowstorm someday, preferably a Nor’easter.

Yeah pretty much. We don’t have a giant ocean sitting immediately upstream like you guys do in the PNW lowlands. All you need is cold, and snow is virtually guaranteed. Seems like a pretty simple equation.

Meanwhile, we need a perfectly timed phasing of jets and proper 500mb vort track/latitude, and the in-situ airmass cannot be significantly warmer than average. If any of these variables are slightly out of sync, then it’s either ice/rain, or a complete miss.

It’s a lot more finicky. Some of the coldest winters (like 76/77) can fail in the snowfall department, while very warm winters like 15/16 can produce blizzards when factors align perfectly.

[Deweydog]

15 years ago RIGHT NOW the models were beginning to offer some hints.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

6 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Have Cliff yell at your son.  By far, your name is my favorite on this site!

He was too busy playing Pokemon or something. (My son, that is. Probably not Cliff Mass.)

[snow_wizard]

This is not too shabby at all on the 18z GFS.  Nice cold shot with northerly surface gradients at this time.  This dovetails with some of the hints we have seen from the EPS and EPS control.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

15 years ago RIGHT NOW the models were beginning to offer some hints.

I remember that! It was Steve Pierce’s post on the forum talking about those hints that really started getting me pumped about the possibilities. 
Sure wish we still had those forum archives to look at and relive the glory days. 

[snow_wizard]

The analogs keep saying we are in a better place than we could be given the Nino.  Still a lot of good year sin the mix, including good Nino winters.