DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Iceresistance]

@ClintonWe need a Siberian Torch since it encourages ridging there to make the cold more towards our direction

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 34/29 there was a reported trace of snowfall. The peak wind was 23MPH out of the W. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 37/26 the record high of 60 was set in 1898, 1949 and 1991. The record low of -5 was set in 1958. The wettest was 1.56” in 2020. The most snowfall of 6.0” fell in 1972 the most on the ground was 12” in 2000 and 1970. Last year the H/L was 35/33.

With above average temperatures and below average precipitation a green Christmas is more that likely this year. The long term chances of a white Christmas here in Grand Rapids is around 63% in the last 10 years there have been 5 white ones and 5 green/brown ones. In the ten year before that there were 7 white and 3 green/brown. 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for December 12th 

SW lower Michigan.

1949: Balmy weather continues. For the second day in a row, temperatures set record highs at Grand Rapids and Lansing.

1958: Arctic air continues across Lower Michigan. Record cold temperatures include 5 below zero at both Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

SE lower Michigan.

2016, a snow storm wrapped up in the early morning hours after snowing for much of the previous day. Snow measurements across Southeast Michigan generally ranged from 8 to 11 inches. NWS White Lake measured 11.3 inches and Flint 10.4, making it their 9th and 15th largest single-event snow accumulations, respectively.

2010, low pressure tracked near the Michigan/Ohio border and then northeast into Ontario. Precipitation started as rain before changing to snow. Snowfall accumulations across southeast Michigan were generally in the 3 to 7-inch range before Arctic air rushed into the region. The quick freeze created a thick accumulation of ice on many of the area roads. In addition, gusty winds of 25 to 40 mph occurred during Sunday afternoon leading to scattered power outages. Some of the higher snowfall reports included Bad Axe with 15 inches, Yale 9 inches, White Lake with 7.7 inches, Clifford with 7 inches, Midland with 7 inches, Riverview with 6.4 inches, and Howell 6.3 inches.

1949, the record high temperature for the day was set at 61 degrees in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw simultaneously! This is 27 degrees above average.

And in the USA

1967 From December 12th through the 20^th, Flagstaff, Arizona, a series of snowstorms buries Flagstaff with nearly 85 inches of snow

 

[Timmy Supercell]

The 10-day on mainstream forecasts just got really dry. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Back to frosty mornings in the 20's. Looks like it's 21 right now in Ashland. No fog though.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

3rd Monday in a row I ran into snowy roads in NMI. Nothing huge, about an inch but it was nice to see firm 20s, lakes iced over and some decent snow showers nonetheless. My days as a "Detroiter" are numbered. I've re-joined my former employer from back in those very snowy 90s. I remember hiking through drifts over my knees just getting from my car to the front door. To sound like my homies @Niko and @tStacsh, the snow can hold off until after I move. In that case, I will let y'all know when it's ok for winter to commence. Remember what they say, patience is a virtue. 

Keep us posted on your move!  Is it happening sometime soon?

[Black Hole]

You've probably read plenty about the big time cold airmass over Siberia ->  mountain torque event -> extended jet -> mega offshore trough -> big torch across much of the CONUS. See below:

Most of the longer range models move towards ridging and warmer air over there -> retracted jet -> ridge across the PNW and BC -> downstream cold and snow chances for us:

It's painful waiting for this to move closer but as this happens and seasonal wavelengths expand it'll hopefully put us in a good position in January. 

 

 

[Black Hole]

It looks like there will be some kind of a system moving through near Christmas. Might be some rain or severe weather down this way with some snow risk further north. Too far away to be specific of course. 

[tStacsh]

21 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

What happened to the transition to winter after the 10th? People are going to be in shorts in Canada for Christmas 

It will get pushed back to January or basically half way through meteorological winter, and we will have one decent week or two of winter.  Whether el nino or not, we will see some winter weather. Sure we will see a big storm pop up and may even get some good snowfall from time to time.  Maybe even a back loaded winter (I doubt that though).  

This is a classic El Nino set up.  And it's not going anywhere by Christmas.  

[tStacsh]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

3rd Monday in a row I ran into snowy roads in NMI. Nothing huge, about an inch but it was nice to see firm 20s, lakes iced over and some decent snow showers nonetheless. My days as a "Detroiter" are numbered. I've re-joined my former employer from back in those very snowy 90s. I remember hiking through drifts over my knees just getting from my car to the front door. To sound like my homies @Niko and @tStacsh, the snow can hold off until after I move. In that case, I will let y'all know when it's ok for winter to commence. Remember what they say, patience is a virtue. 

I'd say you must be moving very soon, but snow chances are far away so it could be a month lol.  

[Niko]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

3rd Monday in a row I ran into snowy roads in NMI. Nothing huge, about an inch but it was nice to see firm 20s, lakes iced over and some decent snow showers nonetheless. My days as a "Detroiter" are numbered. I've re-joined my former employer from back in those very snowy 90s. I remember hiking through drifts over my knees just getting from my car to the front door. To sound like my homies @Niko and @tStacsh, the snow can hold off until after I move. In that case, I will let y'all know when it's ok for winter to commence. Remember what they say, patience is a virtue. 

Best of luck to ya bud. Always exciting to experience new adventures.

[Niko]

Christmas Day here in my area will most likely be a very mild one this year w/ readings well into the 40s and possibly near 50F. It could also rain as well. Classic nino set-up. As I said b4, I'd be very happy if my snowfall this winter gets to at least near average. We will see about that though.

[gimmesnow]

26 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

You've probably read plenty about the big time cold airmass over Siberia ->  mountain torque event -> extended jet -> mega offshore trough -> big torch across much of the CONUS. See below:

Most of the longer range models move towards ridging and warmer air over there -> retracted jet -> ridge across the PNW and BC -> downstream cold and snow chances for us:

It's painful waiting for this to move closer but as this happens and seasonal wavelengths expand it'll hopefully put us in a good position in January. 

 

 

I swear this happened exactly like this in the last few years. I remember talking to people in other forums that like winter activities and they were thinking winter was over and done due to climate change because the entire globe was burning. Had to show them those evil Russians stole winter.

So yeah, probably a few weeks of winter in February and that's it. I'm just glad my parents moved close and I don't have to drive 130 miles to get my snowmobile out of storage anymore. I hate making that trip for no reason.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Keep us posted on your move!  Is it happening sometime soon?

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

I'd say you must be moving very soon, but snow chances are far away so it could be a month lol.  

Not a bad guess, lol. Should be right at the New Year (+/-)

[Clinton]

12z GFS has some cold rain for Missouri and Iowa Saturday, not the best timing over the weekend. 

[bud2380]

Suddenly Saturday is looking more interesting.  At least for precipitation prospects.  Looks like rain for most, but some snow on the northern edge.  Most models are now showing something Saturday and have been increasing totals with each run.

 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS has some cold rain for Missouri and Iowa Saturday, not the best timing over the weekend. 

Wait! I thought you were in take what we can get mode?

[bud2380]

[gimmesnow]

7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Illinois is so bad even the rain doesn't want to visit it

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS with a big league Christmas Eve snowstorm. 

[westMJim]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

re-joined my former employer from back in those very snowy 90s. I remember hiking through drifts over my knees just getting from my car to the front door.

Where are you moving to?

[hawkstwelve]

Might as well throw a little Christmas Day snow in there too. 

[Madtown]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS with a big league Christmas Eve snowstorm. 

Should be about 75 in Iowa and Illinois with this set up...Maybe get into the mid 60's in Wiscon

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Wait! I thought you were in take what we can get mode?

Oh I am!  I'm just working outside this weekend so.... lol

[Black Hole]

At least we look to get some rain Friday to Saturday now. Better than an endless dry torchfest. Probably another system near Christmas. 

[Niko]

Break out those shorts. Very warm conditions are expected (ESPECIALLY Christmas Day). They are already forecasting 50s for my area, possibly higher in spots and other places. Just wow! Possibly records to be broken!!! Do I dare say: grilling on Christmas Day???!!!

Note: I never did like that Halloween snow!!!!

[Bryan1117]

37 minutes ago, Niko said:

Break out those shorts. Very warm conditions are expected (ESPECIALLY Christmas Day). They are already forecasting 50s for my area, possibly higher in spots and other places. Just wow! Possibly records to be broken!!! Do I dare say: grilling on Christmas Day???!!!

Note: I never did like that Halloween snow!!!!

This pattern epically sucks, however being able to grill out and maybe have a fire pit going outside on Christmas evening does sound nice.

Would gladly trade it for a lousy inch of snow on Christmas Eve… even though it looks like that’s going to be asking way too much.

[jaster220]

43 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

This pattern epically sucks, however being able to grill out and maybe have a fire pit going outside on Christmas evening does sound nice.

Would gladly trade it for a lousy inch of snow on Christmas Eve… even though it looks like that’s going to be asking way too much.

My winters have been so lame for years now, it really isn't shocking. I will say that last Christmas was one of the more dynamic weather-wise of my life even here in the least impacted region of the state. Can only imagine how fun it was in the harder hit areas. 

 

If you watch the loop carefully, you can see that at 9z (4 am) on the 23rd, the SLP "drops" to 985 mb and "boom" +SN is immediately falling just north of the Detroit Metro region and all through the Thumb, where they reported much more snow plus all the open farmland. It was a legit raging bliz up there. Missed it by "that much" here as they say. You can see the higher totals across the Thumb on GRR's map. That was not LES, just the perfect dead-of-night timing of a bombing SLP:

 

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Where are you moving to?

Harrison. Just barely into the Northland and not in a LES belt, so I won't have to commute through the regions where it's endless winter driving conditions like before. I do miss seeing true winter and deep snow OTG. Since there's no hard data site for my city proper, I have to do a little diagnosis and private detective work. I will get more than Gladwin, but a bit less than Houghton Lake. Of the last 23 winters, 17 reached double-digit snow depth so I think my thirst for real snow cover will be quenched. Besides I get a nice easy x-way commute north through some of the most picturesque pine forested land in the LP. This region even in the historically bad winter of 11-12 reached 25" depth. Depending on which snowfall map you look at (APX's vs others) my average is in the 65-75" range. I'm mildly stoked. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Break out those shorts. Very warm conditions are expected (ESPECIALLY Christmas Day). They are already forecasting 50s for my area, possibly higher in spots and other places. Just wow! Possibly records to be broken!!! Do I dare say: grilling on Christmas Day???!!!

Note: I never did like that Halloween snow!!!!

Record for Christmas day is 64 at both Chicago and Detroit.  Gonna need to remain in the warm sector of the potential system around that timeframe for long enough to even have a shot as an earlier fropa would result in cooler conditions.  Even if we're in the warm sector, need a lot to go right to pull off temps well into the 60s in late December.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Harrison. Just barely into the Northland and not in a LES belt, so I won't have to commute through the regions where it's endless winter driving conditions like before. I do miss seeing true winter and deep snow OTG. Since there's no hard data site for my city proper, I have to do a little diagnosis and private detective work. I will get more than Gladwin, but a bit less than Houghton Lake. Of the last 23 winters, 17 reached double-digit snow depth so I think my thirst for real snow cover will be quenched. Besides I get a nice easy x-way commute north through some of the most picturesque pine forested land in the LP. This region even in the historically bad winter of 11-12 reached 25" depth. Depending on which snowfall map you look at (APX's vs others) my average is in the 65-75" range. I'm mildly stoked. 

That'll be a nice upgrade.

[hawkstwelve]

Another GFS run, another wallop of a Christmas Eve/Christmas snowstorm. 

[westMJim]

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Harrison. Just barely into the Northland and not in a LES belt, so I won't have to commute through the regions where it's endless winter driving conditions like before.

I have a old book of Michigan records and has Harrison with a average of 52.4" of that 37.6 in Met winter. 12.2" in the spring and 2.6 in the fall.  But remember the average H/L is colder than both Grand Rapids and of course Detroit.

[james1976]

GFS continuing with the Christmas storm and then another one right after that.

[hawkstwelve]

This is the first time all season that any ensemble mean has gone above 2 inches for my area. 

[Up_north_MI]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Harrison. Just barely into the Northland and not in a LES belt, so I won't have to commute through the regions where it's endless winter driving conditions like before. I do miss seeing true winter and deep snow OTG. Since there's no hard data site for my city proper, I have to do a little diagnosis and private detective work. I will get more than Gladwin, but a bit less than Houghton Lake. Of the last 23 winters, 17 reached double-digit snow depth so I think my thirst for real snow cover will be quenched. Besides I get a nice easy x-way commute north through some of the most picturesque pine forested land in the LP. This region even in the historically bad winter of 11-12 reached 25" depth. Depending on which snowfall map you look at (APX's vs others) my average is in the 65-75" range. I'm mildly stoked. 

Congratulations and good luck with the move. That area averages closer to 60” a season I would bet. We take 27 up occasionally rather then I-75 when going back and forth to our place at Higgins and when going through that area they almost always have quite a bit more snow on the ground then areas just south of there. I feel the elevation there definitely helps compared to Clare and areas to the south. Houghton Lake averages mid 60’s out at the airport east of the lake but the average snowfall really changes fast as you go a little north and west because of the lake effect. Where our place is at on the north side of Higgins we average between 85-90 inches but you only have to go another 10 miles north and west to get into the 100”+ areas, lake effect and elevation play a huge role in who gets what snow wise around there.

[Up_north_MI]

14 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Congratulations and good luck with the move. That area averages closer to 60” a season I would bet. We take 27 up occasionally rather then I-75 when going back and forth to our place at Higgins and when going through that area they almost always have quite a bit more snow on the ground then areas just south of there. I feel the elevation there definitely helps compared to Clare and areas to the south. Houghton Lake averages mid 60’s out at the airport east of the lake but the average snowfall really changes fast as you go a little north and west because of the lake effect. Where our place is at on the north side of Higgins we average between 85-90 inches but you only have to go another 10 miles north and west to get into the 100”+ areas, lake effect and elevation play a huge role in who gets what snow wise around there.

[Up_north_MI]

Just now, Up_north_MI said:

I’m sure you’ve seen this map that NWS out of Gaylord has but this is their thoughts for the averages which I feel is as accurate as you’ll find anywhere for that area. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

I have a old book of Michigan records and has Harrison with a average of 52.4" of that 37.6 in Met winter. 12.2" in the spring and 2.6 in the fall.  But remember the average H/L is colder than both Grand Rapids and of course Detroit.

Hmm. I wonder how old your book is? That 52.4" makes more sense for Gladwin. But it could be correct if the snowier recent decades were not included. I know the 30s/40s/50s were pretty awful region-wide after the Roaring 20s which delivered the record snowfall totals across the middle of The Mitt. 

Since GRR (to my knowledge) does not publish a map like APX, I am projecting off theirs. Would be in the 50-75" zone.

 

 

This map that covers 1991-2020 is quite a bit more generous showing 72-84" zone through the northern portions of Clare county.

As you said, it is colder and you have elevation along with forest terrain aiding in snow retention even if the annual totals were the same. 

[jaster220]

33 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

I’m sure you’ve seen this map that NWS out of Gaylord has but this is their thoughts for the averages which I feel is as accurate as you’ll find anywhere for that area. 

MRCC data is usually reliable too. Their map I posted of course does not include all those low-snowfall decades so it could be seen as a bit mis-leading. At the same time, warm earth era may actually be bumping snowfall amounts. A poster at AmWx has some good data that seems to indicate that at least over the past say 25 yrs (if you track the warm era starting in 1998 as I do). Appreciate your well-wishes.