DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

It's refreshing to be able to look at this map and not see myself painted in red for once. 

[Minny_Weather]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's refreshing to be able to look at this map and not see myself painted in red for once. 

Same, even though I'm still orange.

[Madtown]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

This is pretty neat. How do you take care of this. I am assuming it must take a lot of effort.

Hours and hours and hours. Snowblower, zamboni, shovels, fire hose.

[mlgamer]

Euro gives TOP-KC-STJ  and maybe @Clinton area a big snowfall starting Christmas Day into the following day! Yeah, we'll see. lol

 

 

[Jayhawker85]

15 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Euro gives TOP-KC-STJ  and maybe @Clinton area a big local snowfall starting Christmas Day into the following day! Yeah, we'll see. lol

 

 

This would be a shock since all my weather apps are showing 50’s this week LOL

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Euro gives TOP-KC-STJ  and maybe @Clinton area a big snowfall starting Christmas Day into the following day! Yeah, we'll see. lol

 

 

I just saw that.  That MJO will make this interesting. Phase 1 is cold and wet for our area.

[Clinton]

12z GFS ensembles getting more on board for a quite Christmas for @CentralNebWeather and @hawkstwelve

[hawkstwelve]

Decent improvement on the 12z EPS snowfall mean as well. 

[Iceresistance]

White Christmas Eve for @hawkstwelve?

[Niko]

Our SWMI peeps are in for a treat. @westMJim and @tStacsh. Enjoy it!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
338 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

MIZ071-180445-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0005.231218T0900Z-231219T0900Z/
Van Buren-
Including the city of South Haven
338 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and high winds expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally heavier
  amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Van Buren county.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Scattered power
  outages and minor beach erosion possible. Waves on Lake
  Michigan will peak near 15 feet Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The stretch of Interstate 94 west of
  Kalamazoo and I-196 south of Holland will be impacted Monday
  and Monday evening with areas of sudden whiteouts and slow
  travel.

[Andie]

Anyone catching sight of Auroras ?!

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Our SWMI peeps are in for a treat. @westMJim and @tStacsh. Enjoy it!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
338 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

MIZ071-180445-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0005.231218T0900Z-231219T0900Z/
Van Buren-
Including the city of South Haven
338 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and high winds expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally heavier
  amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Van Buren county.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Scattered power
  outages and minor beach erosion possible. Waves on Lake
  Michigan will peak near 15 feet Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The stretch of Interstate 94 west of
  Kalamazoo and I-196 south of Holland will be impacted Monday
  and Monday evening with areas of sudden whiteouts and slow
  travel.

Should be a fun winter day, but I’m definitely not in the les snowfall this time.  

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather be able to look at Christmas decorations with snow.

Nothing better than having your lawn decorations buried!

[james1976]

18z GFS brings the defo band (actually snow) right through the TC Christmas morning. Good trends. 

[jaster220]

Surprisingly snowy look tomorrow for MI even if it is a "one day wonder"

[jaster220]

GRR

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

We will add Kalamazoo County to the Winter Weather Advisory and
upgrade Allegan County to the Winter Storm Warning. High res
models continue to show lake effect snow bands persisting through
Allegan and Western Kalamazoo Counties for several hours on Monday
afternoon and evening during the period of high winds, so the
combination of falling and blowing snow is expected to create
hazardous travel conditions in Allegan County and this could
extend into the western half of Kalamazoo County. The valid times
will be the same for the existing advisory/warning.

[jaster220]

Chicago at slight risk of getting MAUL'd per LOT

This is in response to what appears to be a secondary disturbance
centered around 700 mb races south-southeastward from
southeastern WI and southern Lake Michigan. The presence of a
Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer (MAUL) through the DGZ (-12 to
-18C layer), along with strong winds up to 45 kt off the surface
certainly supports the idea that a quick moving and potentially
dangerous snow squall with strong winds and very low visibilities
could occur early Monday morning. At this time, it appears the
best potential area of impact would be across parts of
northwestern IN, but certainly cannot rule out parts of the
Chicago area near the lake getting clipped by this. Trends will
continue to be monitored with this as the timing could be right in
the midst of the morning commute.

[Black Hole]

Good signal for a pair of systems the 21st-25th here which should drop some decent rains. Cooler and drier weather after that with perhaps a low end snow risk by the end of the year? Time will tell. 

[jaster220]

Makes me wish I could shift into chase mode

[hawkstwelve]

Well 00z GFS and CMC runs are crap for Christmas snow here. Nothing but 50 degree rain. Hopefully not the start of a trend. 

That being said, other areas in the Midwest score some good amounts in the days following Christmas. At least there is potential to track, regardless of where it goes. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEFS mean is slightly better for my area than 18z run. Much larger improvement for western NE and SD. 

[Clinton]

0z Euro now bombs out over Iowa just after Christmas. 

6z GFS is somewhat similar only warmer.

[Minny_Weather]

Long term models hinting at a PV invasion just before New Years.

[westMJim]

Yes, there is some snow falling at this time and there is now a trace on the ground with a temperature of 33. The official H/L yesterday was 46/38 and there was 0.09” of rain. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was set in 1939 and the record low of -5 was set in 1926. The wettest was 1.07” in 2002 the most snowfall was 4.0” in 1951 and the most on the ground 13” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 28/24 there was 0.4” of snowfall and there was 8” on the ground.

[tStacsh]

Some light snow falling off and on at my house.  Trace to about 1/4"  otg.   Warm ground doing work.     At work in downtown GR, no accumulation.    

Hoping to cash in on some long skinny bands of snow making their way into my county later from the Lake Superior/Michigan connection.  Not the best setup for my area with the winds, but might get a couple moderate squalls later this afternoon that could almost make it look like winter.   

[westMJim]

Some Christmas day weather history. At this time the forecast for Christmas day has highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. That would be one of the top 10 warmest highs for any Christmas at Grand Rapids the record is 65 in 1982. But at the current time 3 of the top ten are 55 in 2019 (3^rd warmest) 52 in 2021 (4^th) and 46 in 2015 (10^th warmest) note anything 46 or above would be in the top 10.

[jaster220]

smallish flakes coming down here as well, so I have at least scored the mood flakes as anticipated from this. Anything beyond will be a bonus as far as I'm concerned. Just peeked at radar and snow appears to be falling at all (6) of my prior/future addresses this morning. That won't/don't happen very often, lol

[Minny_Weather]

This is the coldest morning we have had all season and it's not even close. Currently 9*F with a wind chill well into the negatives.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Some Christmas day weather history. At this time the forecast for Christmas day has highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. That would be one of the top 10 warmest highs for any Christmas at Grand Rapids the record is 65 in 1982. But at the current time 3 of the top ten are 55 in 2019 (3^rd warmest) 52 in 2021 (4^th) and 46 in 2015 (10^th warmest) note anything 46 or above would be in the top 10.

If last year's arctic blast would've been just 1day later, I'm pretty sure it would have been a top 10 if not a top 5 cold Christmas day. Nature flipping the script again this year.

DTW officially hit 15F, but it wasn't that "hot" where I was, lol

[westMJim]

4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Some light snow falling off and on at my house

That is what I am getting here in MBY there is a trace on the ground with more on the house roofs. The temperature is at 33 so what more can I say.

[westMJim]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

smallish flakes coming down here as well

The snowfall has picked up here and is now snowing at a moderate rate.

[westMJim]

Here are the web cams from Michigan Tech in Houghton.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/view/

and from Munising 

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

[Hawkeye]

The northwest wind hit us at 2am.  It's going to be a rare cold day, but models show the wind will be gone by this evening.  We warm back up well into the 30s tomorrow, so it's a very quick cold shot.

[Timmy Supercell]

My turn for a couple "pretend" days of winter. Highs upper 30's and some occasional wet snow showers.

Still looks like it'll warm up again around Christmas.

[Madtown]

A lake surprise! close to 6" down

[Timmy Supercell]

35 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If last year's arctic blast would've been just 2 days later, I'm pretty sure it would have been a top 10 if not a top 5 cold Christmas day. Nature flipping the script again this year.

Yeah, going from 2021's extreme warm in Dec, to the arctic blast last year, and then back to warmer again. lol

And Dec 2021 had 60-70 throughout that month, not just on a day or two.

[Minny_Weather]

I'll take this in a heartbeat. Even though I won't be here for it, it'd be nice to have white ground for the remainder of winter. I do believe we will turn cold at the end of the month.

[Tom]

Happy Monday all!  I sorta slept in today and had a late start but I just wanted to come on here and say "Giddy up, Buckle Up"....sh$T is gonna get real here soon!

[Beltrami Island]

29 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

I'll take this in a heartbeat. Even though I won't be here for it, it'd be nice to have white ground for the remainder of winter. I do believe we will turn cold at the end of the month.

Pretty much a cutoff low that finds enough cold air to produce snow, could just as easily be rain.  But, I guess until there is some typical cold air over Hudson Bay, a cutoff low is about the best we can hope for with an El Nino and Aleutian/Alaskan trough.  

[Minny_Weather]

14 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Pretty much a cutoff low that finds enough cold air to produce snow, could just as easily be rain.  But, I guess until there is some typical cold air over Hudson Bay, a cutoff low is about the best we can hope for with an El Nino and Aleutian/Alaskan trough.  

This is basically the best that we can hope for at this point. Otherwise we'll be looking at another 2015 type situation where it's just brown ground for the majority of the year besides the few of us that can score from clippers.