Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: That is an awesome windstorm pattern out this way. At least it's not atrociously boring. Yeah, we need to keep a close eye on that. 12z GFS in 1 hour 56 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: At least the Night Shift 6z GEFS is much better long range. Day 10-16 is active with Cascade snows as we're on the cooler side of the jet. Probably the best we can hope for. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 7 years ago today we were digging out. 6 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: At least the Night Shift 6z GEFS is much better long range. Day 10-16 is active with Cascade snows as we're on the cooler side of the jet. That strong Aleutian low is throwing some punches at the PV as we near Christmas. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 12Z GFS really dries things out after today for at least the next 10 days. SEA is running almost 5 inches above normal for December right now. Pretty crazy. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Rain and 34 looks like we got about 4-5" but also looks like compaction and some melting already. looked a lot fluffier when I went to bed at 1:30am 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 7 hours ago, Phil said: YIKESSSSS Canada burned this summer with fires, now 'burning' via Nino 1 1 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: Wow. 06z GFS. Somehow all the mild Pacific air you could ask for without any of the beneficial precipitation associated with it. Barph A lot more STJ with the next AR pattern. The southward migration of the storm track towards CA might be starting. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 3 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: At least the Night Shift 6z GEFS is much better long range. Day 10-16 is active with Cascade snows as we're on the cooler side of the jet. Cool side of the STJ but warm side of the northern jet. That pattern will verify warmer than normal everywhere except CA. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 sloppy out 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: That strong Aleutian low is throwing some punches at the PV as we near Christmas. That is true, the AL will trigger a wave-1 response (displacement off the pole) and should begin to slowly weaken the vortex with time. So at the very least the cold will be free to move off the pole somewhat (no locked in super PV/++AO). In such a strong Niño, though, the PNW lowlands probably need a wave-2 (split) which will require help from Eurasia in addition to the wave-1. That has been hard to come by thus far. 2015/16 also never got the wave-2/split, despite lots of teasing in the longer range models. Maybe this year will do better..the QBO is more favorable for downward propagation if ma’ nature decides to play ball. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Man oh man. Check out the agreement at D15 across the EPS/GEPS/GEFS ensemble means. Scandinavia trough and +EPO/building STJ. Hard to find a more perfect blowtorch pattern for west-central Canada. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 1.45” in the past 24 hours. Up over 11” on the month. We’ve essentially hit average for the month already. I believe PDX has locked up an above average rainfall month. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Man oh man. Check out the agreement at D15 across the ensembles. Scandinavia trough and +EPO/building STJ. Best possible torch pattern for west-central Canada. Looks like a you problem. The CME and GEFS would pound us with rain and mountain snow. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like a you problem. The CME and GEFS would pound us with rain and mountain snow. Verbatim that is not a legit torch pattern here. Up north is a different story of course. Knowing how these types of patterns work and how ensemble mean smooth them, you guys will likely end up with substantially greater positive departures. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 .99 inches in about twelve hours is a lot here. No snow. 4 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 0.28” since midnight and 6.79” MTD. Already above average rainfall this month. Might be able to hit 10” of rain this month. I can’t remember the last time we hit 10” of rain in a month…but it’s been a couple years atleast. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: .99 inches in about twelve hours is a lot here. No snow. Wow. Make the desert bloom! 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: 0.28” since midnight and 6.79” MTD. Already above average rainfall this month. Might be able to hit 10” of rain this month. I can’t remember the last time we hit 10” of rain in a month…but it’s been a couple years atleast. My uneducated guess says we dry out for about two weeks, and then things ramp up again. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Knowing how these types of patterns work and how ensemble mean smooth them, you guys will likely end up with substantially greater positive departures than down here. @TT-SEA would confirm usually wet means warm. I would say usually but not always, this year, definitely. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My uneducated guess says we dry out for about two weeks, and then things ramp up again. Yeah, I think we will get some decently wet weather again at some point this month…but probably not as wet as the first 10 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: @TT-SEA would confirm usually wet means warm. I would say usually but not always, this year, definitely. If you’re looking for real cold, it will be in Mother Russia. Not in the cards for North America this winter (and I mean everywhere in North America, not just the west). CA and the SE 1/3rd of the US are the only areas that can pull off negative departures in such a pattern, but that is not arctic cold. Just a displacement of cooler midwestern air that would be warm by their standards (and in CA’s case it’s a precip induced cool anomaly). 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Of course my anemometer decides to croak when I have a back injury. No way in hell I could shimmy up the chimney in my current state, lol. I’ll probably have to pay a friend to help me out bc I can’t mentally tolerate having incomplete wx data. I don’t know Tim does it. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Phil said: If you’re looking for real cold, it will be in Mother Russia. Not in the cards for North America this winter (and I mean everywhere in North America, not just the west). CA and the SE 1/3rd of the US are the only areas that can pull off negative departures in such a pattern, but that is not arctic cold. Just a displacement of cooler midwestern air that would be warm by their standards (and in CA’s case it’s a precip induced cool anomaly). Decent chance we see our warmest winter on record nationally. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: 0.28” since midnight and 6.79” MTD. Already above average rainfall this month. Might be able to hit 10” of rain this month. I can’t remember the last time we hit 10” of rain in a month…but it’s been a couple years atleast. Across the pond 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Some blue sky is Seattle this morning. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 11 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: The enthralling block-o-rama Split Flow City Euro run is about to begin. I can hardly wait. Oh yeah. No, no sarcasm at all. None. FTFY. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 1.06" yesterday, 0.40" since midnight, 7.69" for the month. 41.9˚F. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Decent chance we see our warmest winter on record nationally. Oh easy. And the entire continent. The parts of North America that typically see the greatest amplitude of winter temp anomalies (warm or cold) are set up roast in this type of low frequency state, so that will skew the mean heavily warm. And the weak ass negative departures in CA/SE-US are barely a drop in the bucket by comparison. The cold air source simply won’t exist. This regime would need a massive subseasonal kick to the balls just to lose its balance, let alone drop. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Decent chance we see our warmest winter on record nationally. The world has apparently done that consecutively in the last few years. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 24 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Up to .96" of rain on the day, and after that initial spike at 40 degrees this morning, we have been around 34-36 the rest of the day and into tonight. Didn't see anything fall today that resembled whet snow. There were some barely positive splats and that's it. I think they did better right up against the border and above 1,000 feet or so, but nothing for a vast majority of us knuckle dragging lowlanders. From the reports I’ve seen, Lynden got snow for an hour or two. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: Cool side of the STJ but warm side of the northern jet. That pattern will verify warmer than normal everywhere except CA. Is the pattern being depicted quite a bit different than Dec 2015? Mid December through early January was rather chilly and active here with multiple days with snow falling. No big snow storms but many wet snow and mixed precip events. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 While we slog thru the typical December niño doldrums, I finally found time to upload some wx videos to my channel. Lightning compilation part-2 (of 3) and 2 snowstorms from winter 2021/22 (Jan & Mar). 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Some blue sky is Seattle this morning. Nice. I haven't seen legit blue sky since mid November, and I doubt I'll get any during our upcoming ridgefest, either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Winter sun is definitely an advantage SW Montana has over NW Montana. Especially here in the Flathead, where we get a super thick cloud deck during ridges. Even my indoor plants are struggling with the permadarkness. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Definitely getting 2015 vibes. Any interesting weather will likely be more AR. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 1.82” of liquid precip from yesterday’s storm here. Not bad! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Definitely getting 2015 vibes. Any interesting weather will likely be more AR. As expected... the 12Z run yesterday was too extreme with that low cutting off so far to the south and west. It's been trending back closer to the west coast. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Saturday looks quite warm for the foothills... and this time it doesn't show heavy rain with the warmth. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 Good news though. Pretty much every long range model is showing a Nina developing by next summer. 7 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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