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December 2023 Weather in the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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From a flooding perspective... the 00Z ECMWF rainfall totals through Wednesday morning do not look like something that would be a top 10 flood event in the Snoqualmie Valley.    That usually requires 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains over a short period.   3.7 inches at the pass over 2 days is not extreme. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-1864000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this is not good.   The Snoqualmie Falls chart only shows low end moderate flooding but I know the flooding scenarios farther downstream are different than at the falls.   

Yeah from what I’ve experienced it’s almost always worse down here than up at the falls. Most of the time when it’s expected to be only moderate flooding up there it’s major flooding down here.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

From a flooding perspective... the 00Z ECMWF rainfall totals through Wednesday morning do not look like something that would be a top 10 flood event in the Snoqualmie Valley.    That usually requires 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains over a short period.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-1864000.png

Yeah I was surprised they were going for a top 10 flood event out of this. Maybe they are projecting a lot of that snow to melt and fill the river.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this is not good.   The Snoqualmie Falls chart only shows low end moderate flooding but I know the flooding scenarios farther downstream are different than at the falls.   

Those river forecasts are not easy to make. It feels high to me given the lack of snowpack and precip numbers that we’ve seen plenty of times before, but you never know, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. 

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5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I was surprised they were going for a top 10 flood event out of this. Maybe they are projecting a lot of that snow to melt and fill the river.

There isn't that much snow up there.   I don't know... maybe the chart is way too aggressive with flooding potential and it will start to trend down once the event starts.   But other times I have been skeptical of those charts and they ended up being right or even too low.   From a big picture perspective this just doesn't seem like a major flooding set up based on gut feeling.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Tri cities is the worse. 

I agree. I think it's worse than Tacoma /Fife because you all still have  moisture whereas Tri Cities is super rain shadowed. Depending how much they have.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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The Euro over the last day has trended significantly drier for this upcoming week up here. Went from close to 5" to less than 2". I guess the mountains still look to get a decent amount of precipitation, but I agree with others that I can't imagine the river forecasts showing major flooding actually verifying based on the amount of precip currently forecast.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Smoking outside in a t shirt and shorts. 54F with moderate rain.

  • Rain 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated.
 Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 

IMG_5338.jpeg

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern.🤮 Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP).

I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated.
 Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 

IMG_5338.jpeg

Wow, stay safe!

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated.
 Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 

IMG_5338.jpeg

You gotta wear hip waders out there or something?? 

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27 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You gotta wear hip waders out there or something?? 

Full set of grundens rain gear and I have some hip waders if I need em 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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Another 0.19" of rain overnight. Very mild morning. Currently 57 in Salem. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern.🤮 Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP).

I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy.

12z is better. 🥳 

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Some of these model runs are pretty darn lame. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Norwood said:

Drove over Willamette Pass last night, it was 45 and pouring rain. Made the drive easier without snow, but the rivers of water in the chain ruts was kinda sketchy when driving. Bly mountain was nice a few days ago though. 

PXL_20231202_183842682.jpg

I need to get back to S. Central Oregon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Euro weeklies have been so boring. La Niña and neutral please come back! Abolish El Niño 

The 2002 vibes are definitely in play. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern.🤮 Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP).

I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy.

So it’s not showing the SSW anymore in the long range?

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