January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Just now, Black Hole said:

Considering the cold still coming the next few days I think January could average 5-6F below normal when all is said and done. It might be just enough to offset the way too warm December. We will see what February holds but it'd be nice to get a below normal DJF. 

The latest JMA seasonal is steadfast on the cold coming for FEB...

 

COLD and WET...you guys in the south most certainly will not see the last of Old Man Winter!

 

 

 

 

 

Let's finish it off with MAR...

 

Singing a similar tune but more wetter in the heartland...March coming in like a LION???

 

 

[Black Hole]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

The latest JMA seasonal is steadfast on the cold coming for FEB...

 

COLD and WET...you guys in the south most certainly will not see the last of Old Man Winter!

 

 

 

 

 

Let's finish it off with MAR...

 

Singing a similar tune but more wetter in the heartland...March coming in like a LION???

 

 

I guess we will have to see! Those maps look cool and dry for Feb with a possibly more favorable pattern for March. But all it takes is 1 or 2 storms of course. 

[chescowxman]

Light snow here in EN temp at 23.0 degrees. Most areas picked up between 1.5" to 3.0" of snow last night and this morning. The NWS has continued the WWA till 4pm for maybe up to another inch of snow and or sleet accumulation today. Skies will clear overnight tonight and with the clear skies and fresh snow cover temperatures in some spots could fall into the single digits above zero tonight. Wednesday should be sunny but continued cold with highs in the low 20's. We could see some additional snow arrive Thursday night into Friday....does not look significant at this time but could make for another slippery commute on Friday morning.

Records for today: High 61 (1932) / Low minus 10 (1982) / Rain 1.71" (1924) / Snow 10.0" (1945)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 10/-5 The high of 10 was the coldest since January 2019 when highs of +2 and +4 were recorded on January 30^th and 31^st The low of -5 was the 1^st time below 0 since -2 in 2022 and the coldest low since -12 on February 17 2021.  For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 58 was set in 1958 and the record low of -16 was set in 1972 and 1996. The most snowfall of 5.5” fell in 1924 and the most snow on the ground was 23” in 1979. Last year the H/L was 41/33 and there was 0.29” of rain fall.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for January 15

1949: Temperatures reach record highs in the mid to upper 50s for the second consecutive day across southwest Lower Michigan.

1972: The arctic air holds on for one more morning of record lows as Grand Rapids falls to 16 below zero and Muskegon tumbles to 11 below.

2009, the region was in the middle of a five-day arctic outbreak. Detroit set a record reaching -15 degrees. Flint was as low as -10, while Saginaw was -6.

Across the USA

1990, Heavy snow fell across Prince Williams Sound and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record of 47.5 inches in 24 hours. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sunk six vessels in the Valdez harbor under the heavy snow’s weight.

2008, An area of low pressure brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Georgia. Three to four inches was a typical amount reported from many of the northeast Georgia counties

[bud2380]

RDPS continues to be very strong.

 

[Tom]

#PACHybrid in the works…

[Tom]

Over the years of tracking these type of systems, I find that the NAM/RGEM and Canadian do the best.  The Euro is great with southern stream systems.  I’m sure the GFS will come around today.  The GEFS showed many members with a decent snow swath.

[hawkstwelve]

12z runs this morning seem to be reversing the southern trend of the past few runs. RDPS and ICON both moved north, as did the NAM starting with the 06z run.

GFS has remained steadfast in showing the more southern solution, rarely ever deviating from it. But if these model runs are right, I might just be able to score something with this.

[bud2380]

ICON

 

[bud2380]

Improvement on the GFS but still pretty sad looking.

 

[bud2380]

The Canadian (GDPS) looks really good too.

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Hoosier @indianajohn @tbone8 Lake Effect signal growing a bit stronger...

 

Definitely interested in this time period overall, even before the lake effect comes into play.  The fronto band could deliver a narrow zone of snow somewhere, and then there's the more widespread snow coming in behind.  The lake effect parameters become outstanding with time.  If a band can stall out somewhere, look out.  But plenty of uncertainty on that kind of detail.

[hawkstwelve]

19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Improvement on the GFS but still pretty sad looking.

 

It has been (very) slowly trending towards the other more northward models over the past four runs. Obviously still doesn't get to the level of the NAM/ICON/RDPS/GEM but it seems to be making its way there.

[Andie]

Sunny!

Currently 17. High of 27.  
This coming Mon-Wed. -… Rain. 🌧

[Hoosier]

The setup early next week looks like it could be icy for some areas.  Even where 2m temps can get into the mid-upper 30s, the ground temps may lag from coming out of the deep cold spell and result in ice.  We'll see.

[Hoosier]

Might as well

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/25859-january-17-19-plains-midwest-snowfall

 

[hawkstwelve]

We are officially above zero for the first time since Friday. Woohoo!

[gimmesnow]

GFS has the rain coming in further south for the January 23rd system. Hopefully this trend continues.

[tStacsh]

Been a snowflake in the air since last friday.  Not adding up much, maybe an 1/2"  a day.   The sun did peak out for about 30 seconds today.  That was nice.  

[Clinton]

Looks like starting next week we are headed for a little January thaw.  AO, NAO, and EPO all headed positive for awhile along with the MJO headed into some very favorable phases for warm weather.

 

The CPC forecast 

 

[Madtown]

Just my take, but forecast temps are gonna keep going up for next week. Hope it doesn't get too out of hand

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like starting next week we are headed for a little January thaw.  AO, NAO, and EPO all headed positive for awhile along with the MJO headed into some very favorable phases for warm weather.

 

The CPC forecast 

 

I think we are all ready for a little warm up after this deep freezer spell 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like starting next week we are headed for a little January thaw.  AO, NAO, and EPO all headed positive for awhile along with the MJO headed into some very favorable phases for warm weather.

 

The CPC forecast 

 

Good Ol' Fashion "January Thaw"....

[chescowxman]

This morning's lows were the coldest since December 24, 2022 when we recorded 2.8 above here in East Nantmeal. Some area lows this AM. East Nantmeal (7.9) / Warwick Twp (7.4) / Kennett Square (9.1) / Lionville (10.9) / Elverson (10.6) / Chester Springs (11.0). It will be sunny but cold today with most spots struggling to reach the low to mid 20's. Clouds return tomorrow but dry and we will approach but likely not pass freezing in most areas. Snow chances increase again likely right after the AM rush on Friday into Friday night. Saturday looks to be the coldest day so far this season with temperatures not much above 20 degrees for afternoon highs.

Records for today: High 65 (1973) / Low 13 below (1982) / Rain 1.83" (1994) / Snow 6.0" (1978)

[Tom]

I'd have to say Chitown "flipped the script"...Top 3 warmest to Top 3 coldest...temps in the 30's next week will feel Balmy...

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 11/2 there was 1.2” of snowfall. At the airport they reported 12” on the ground. The highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. There was a reported 18% of sunshine. Here in MBY I had 2.2” of new snowfall and I have 15” on the ground. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1952 and the record low of -10 was set in 1976. The record snowfall of 4.7” was in 2009. Last year the H/l was 46/37.

The last few days have been colder at the airport then here in my yard. I had a low of 6 here overnight and at this time there is some clearing and a temperature of 10.  

[tStacsh]

Looks pretty warm to end out January on the GFS.  I wouldn't mind a break.  I'll take another week or two of winter in February and call it good.   The last 5 days have not been fun on the roads.  

[Timmy Supercell]

A little on the chilly side of things! We had a low of 1 this morning, and some feel-like temps around -5!

Waiting on the 6-hour minimum to be stated, but on the 5 minute observations there were several readings of 1.
I figure it checks out. 

[Timmy Supercell]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like starting next week we are headed for a little January thaw.  AO, NAO, and EPO all headed positive for awhile along with the MJO headed into some very favorable phases for warm weather.

 

The CPC forecast 

 

If we can manage at least a normal January on mean temperature that's not bad, I'll take some rain after this.

Probably some occasional severe t'storm chances later this month.

[gimmesnow]

I could do without the rain. GFS has me going from too cold to do anything, ski hills closed and don't trust my old snowmobile for a one person ride, to rain, to snow to the south. That last storm was amazing but it's looking like a one or two week winter here.

A lot of ski hills around here just barely went 100% open with this cold snap. The whole week of the 22nd looks like a rain out for snowboarding and there is no way the snowmobile trails will survive that.

[ATW]

12 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like starting next week we are headed for a little January thaw.  AO, NAO, and EPO all headed positive for awhile along with the MJO headed into some very favorable phases for warm weather.

 

The CPC forecast 

 

Hope February brings a few more chances at some winter storms. 

[Madtown]

50 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I could do without the rain. GFS has me going from too cold to do anything, ski hills closed and don't trust my old snowmobile for a one person ride, to rain, to snow to the south. That last storm was amazing but it's looking like a one or two week winter here.

A lot of ski hills around here just barely went 100% open with this cold snap. The whole week of the 22nd looks like a rain out for snowboarding and there is no way the snowmobile trails will survive that.

It is brutal up here...typical Nov out on the trails. Nothing is froze, no/low snow. Business is absolutely brutal for many right now. Hopefully Feb and maybe March turns out, but this could be 4 mo of lost revenue for many. From Lake Gogebic on north to Copper Harbor is the only spot up here thats rideable atm. 2015-2016 wasn't even this bad. 

[Niko]

Currently at 7F w cloudy skies. WCF at -8F.

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd have to say Chitown "flipped the script"...Top 3 warmest to Top 3 coldest...temps in the 30's next week will feel Balmy...

It will be interesting to see how much snow begins to melt with the warm up coming up next week. I'm ok with the warm up it will feel good but just hope it doesn't do too much to the snow pack. Granted i have about 18" of snow on the ground and the drifts are huge; it will be interesting to see how much melting takes place. I'm sure will start to have fog days also with the melting; that could hinder some warm up days if fog can stick around during the day. 

[hawkstwelve]

Holy moly, we are up to a whopping 14 degrees here! We haven't hit teens above zero for almost a week straight. 

Break out the t-shirts and shorts!

[Iceresistance]

This is not one of the headfake SSWs, this is the real deal.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd have to say Chitown "flipped the script"...Top 3 warmest to Top 3 coldest...temps in the 30's next week will feel Balmy...

To add to this... on 1/12, ORD's temperature departure for the month was +6.2.  Now through 1/16, it is -1.1.  Just a crazy turnaround in such a short amount of time.  Next several days will be colder than average and based on my calculations, may get the month to like -3.5 or a bit colder before temps become above average.  Question will be if the warmup later this month will be able to wipe out the negative departure.  Not sure at this point.

[tStacsh]

I'm getting Ice storm vibes next week.  

[Tom]

39 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

It will be interesting to see how much snow begins to melt with the warm up coming up next week. I'm ok with the warm up it will feel good but just hope it doesn't do too much to the snow pack. Granted i have about 18" of snow on the ground and the drifts are huge; it will be interesting to see how much melting takes place. I'm sure will start to have fog days also with the melting; that could hinder some warm up days if fog can stick around during the day. 

That's a deep snow depth!  Wow, I'm pretty sure you are just admiring the scenery of such a wonderful winter landscape.  You've been able to enjoy it for more than a couple weeks, right?  Question, did all your snow melt from the Christmas storm before the big snows hit in JAN?