January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I'm getting Ice storm vibes next week.  

The initial synoptic setup with that high slipping off the east coast (do note a high in southern Canada, which does not seem to have a lot of influence as currently modeled) and bringing in southerly flow is often pretty atrocious for ice, but we'll be coming out of some deep cold so it will take time to modify the airmass.  Also, as I mentioned the other day, we could end up with a situation where the ground is able to accrete ice even as 2m temps warm above freezing.  Back in January 2014, there was an event around here where temps got into the mid-upper 30s, but it was a skating rink on some of the roads because it had been extremely cold shortly before.

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

It is brutal up here...typical Nov out on the trails. Nothing is froze, no/low snow. Business is absolutely brutal for many right now. Hopefully Feb and maybe March turns out, but this could be 4 mo of lost revenue for many. From Lake Gogebic on north to Copper Harbor is the only spot up here thats rideable atm. 2015-2016 wasn't even this bad. 

I joined a club ski trip to the up this weekend. Thought it would be amazing trip. Kind of bumming now, can't get out of it and might be the last week to snowmobile around here. Sounded amazing when booking it in the fall.

 

They have 11 out of 43 trails open. Thinking it's a waste of time to go and I'd rather be here honestly.

Hope this rain stays away. Only hope for saving things.

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The initial synoptic setup with that high slipping off the east coast (do note a high in southern Canada, which does not seem to have a lot of influence as currently modeled) and bringing in southerly flow is often pretty atrocious for ice, but we'll be coming out of some deep cold so it will take time to modify the airmass.  Also, as I mentioned the other day, we could end up with a situation where the ground is able to accrete ice even as 2m temps warm above freezing.  Back in January 2014, there was an event around here where temps got into the mid-upper 30s, but it was a skating rink on some of the roads because it had been extremely cold shortly before.

Actually found the event from 2014 that I was talking about.  Here's an old afd from LOT.  Do we see a repeat of this next week?

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

628 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014  

   

DISCUSSION  

 

624 PM CST  

 

WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  

ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR 40...THE COLD  

GROUND IS ALLOWING AREA ROADS TO BECOME ICY. WE RECEIVED NUMEROUS  

REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND EVEN CLOSED HIGHWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL  

ILLINOIS. THE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE IS URGING DRIVERS TO STAY HOME  

THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN HOW BAD  

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN  

ADVISORY IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WARMING. WITH TIME THE ROAD TEMPS  

SHOULD WARM AND END THE THREAT FOR ICING.  

[Beltrami Island]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

It is brutal up here...typical Nov out on the trails. Nothing is froze, no/low snow. Business is absolutely brutal for many right now. Hopefully Feb and maybe March turns out, but this could be 4 mo of lost revenue for many. From Lake Gogebic on north to Copper Harbor is the only spot up here thats rideable atm. 2015-2016 wasn't even this bad. 

Not in this sub, but Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana are hurting big time, not just the northern midwest.  All those reds and orange dots don't just represent below average, in a lot of cases those sites are at or near all time (30-40 year history) low snowpack for this point in the season.  Utah and Colorado got in the storm train that has gone through the central Midwest.  

There have been some big turnaround winters for the northern midwest after after very low first half winter snows.  2005-06, 2012-13, 2018-2019, and 2021-22.  Unfortunately, all those years are either ENSO neutral or La Nina.   

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

That's a deep snow depth!  Wow, I'm pretty sure you are just admiring the scenery of such a wonderful winter landscape.  You've been able to enjoy it for more than a couple weeks, right?  Question, did all your snow melt from the Christmas storm before the big snows hit in JAN?

It's pretty awesome Tom! We had about an inch of snow on the ground left over before the first storm hit. Everyday when I'm leaving work I just drive around and look at the drifts; it's so awesome taking it all in! Here is a video I made the day after the last storm. 

 

 

[Tom]

Took this from LOT's page which they just released a link for the PV visit of 1/14 - 1/17...

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

It's pretty awesome Tom! We had about an inch of snow on the ground left over before the first storm hit. Everyday when I'm leaving work I just drive around and look at the drifts; it's so awesome taking it all in! Here is a video I made the day after the last storm. 

 

That’s incredible!  It’s like images I remember from the UP of Michigan.

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

This is not one of the headfake SSWs, this is the real deal.

It's interesting because I've been hearing talk from the "experts" that we've been receiving what often occurs after a SSW already and that after this brief reversal we go back to normal conditions with the PV  strengthening. 

[Hoosier]

Was looking at some stats from the cold spell, and this is the first time since January 1992 that a strong Nino produced a temperature of -10 or colder in Chicago.  There were back to back -10 lows at ORD in this cold stretch, which also happened in January 1992.

This probably won't come as much of a surprise, but historically speaking, most strong Ninos do not produce a temp that cold in Chicago.

[Madtown]

5 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Not in this sub, but Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana are hurting big time, not just the northern midwest.  All those reds and orange dots don't just represent below average, in a lot of cases those sites are at or near all time (30-40 year history) low snowpack for this point in the season.  Utah and Colorado got in the storm train that has gone through the central Midwest.  

There have been some big turnaround winters for the northern midwest after after very low first half winter snows.  2005-06, 2012-13, 2018-2019, and 2021-22.  Unfortunately, all those years are either ENSO neutral or La Nina.   

This is gonna make for a brutal fire season out there

[mlgamer]

The temp anomaly for December here was +7.0(F) and so far this month sits at -7.7. I expect that will moderate some by the end of the month but an impressive flip nonetheless. 

[Iceresistance]

January Thaw is indeed coming, but it will likely vanish come February

[Beltrami Island]

3 hours ago, Madtown said:

This is gonna make for a brutal fire season out there

Oh man, wasn't even thinking about that. MT, ID, and WY are so over run with pine beetle killed trees the whole region could be a tinder box.  

I did snowmobile trips each year from 07-13 to the same lodge near Yellowstone . Each year  I could see the slow crawl of beetle killed trees expanding. When I went back in 2019 I couldn't believe all the dead trees... Entire mountain sides went from lush pine trees to dead timber.  I can't imagine it now.... End result of 100+ years of snuffing out every small fire in a region that needs fire to regenerate itself.

At least we will get pretty sunsets out of it possibly.

[chescowxman]

Temperatures have started to rebound across the area with clouds on the increase after a low of 14 degrees at 330 this morning. A cloudy day today with temps remaining below freezing across most of Chester County for the 4th consecutive. The below freezing streak looks to continue across the area until Monday at the earliest. Light snow should arrive toward daybreak tomorrow and continue much of the day tomorrow. Snow totals should range from 2" to 4" across SW Chester County to 3" to 5" as we move NE through Chester County and into Montgomery and Bucks counties. We could see a little blowing and drifting snow later Friday night into Saturday and temps will struggle to get much above the teens with wind chills near or below zero. A warming trend gets underway next week as we get our January Thaw.

Records for today: High 66 (1973) / Low 4 below (1994) / Rain 1.15" (1915) / Snow 6.0" (1930)

[Tom]

ORD is at 18.1" for the season but will add to this today and tomorrow...what a turnaround and the pattern is ripe for the region to add more before this Historic JAN is over.

Some Snow Stats...who thought MSP would struggle this much??

[Tom]

Hmm, the JMA weeklies are showing a pocket of cooler air over the central/southern SUB...

Day 3-9 below...

 

 

Week 2 is similar...

 

 

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hmm, the JMA weeklies are showing a pocket of cooler air over the central/southern SUB...

Day 3-9 below...

 

 

Week 2 is similar...

 

 

I noticed on the Euro weeklies and the GEFS extended the EPO and AO after a brief spike positive are forecasted ro go back negative. 

[KTPmidMO]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I noticed on the Euro weeklies and the GEFS extended the EPO and AO after a brief spike positive are forecasted ro go back negative. 

So is this saying temps may not stay warm for very long or the warmer temps will be colder than possibly forecast?

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

So is this saying temps may not stay warm for very long or the warmer temps will be colder than possibly forecast?

A warm up is still coming, just goes back to chilly around the beginning of February I assume. 

[Clinton]

48 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

So is this saying temps may not stay warm for very long or the warmer temps will be colder than possibly forecast?

I think we are going to have some ups and downs for awhile. I think there's a good chance we go back into the deep freeze later in February.  The JMAs that Tom shared show a strong phase 8 look.

[MIKEKC]

We have one final band of snow that is going to move through KC tonight followed by another shot of artic air that will drop us to -15 Saturday morning. This will finish off an epic 14 day period of true winter weather in KC. After that, it appears warmer weather is on its way for the remainder of Jan. I love me a good snowpack, I hate it when it melts!!!

We'll see what FEB. brings. 

[gimmesnow]

4 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

So is this saying temps may not stay warm for very long or the warmer temps will be colder than possibly forecast?

Well up here we've had highs of -1 so a "warm up" could be in the upper 20s and 30s. Lows were like -15 a few times. If low temps only go to 25 that's a 30 degree warm up.

I'm far from the most knowledgeable here about meteorology but models were showing rain to northern Wisconsin a few days ago and now they're saying 7in of snow for me in SE Wisconsin. It's still way too early for me to get excited but the trends have been warmer air but not as warm as initially expected. It is going to get warmer, maybe not as warm as people initially expected but after that arctic blast even a return to normal is a warm up.

CPC weeklies have been warming up the first week in Feb around the Midwest too.

For me this started as "good bye snowmobile trails and hello icy snow cone garbage at ski resorts" but it's shaping up to be "we might survive this thaw after all." That said I always feel like these shifts like this are a lot of problems for models.

[westMJim]

Boy it is really hard work clearing off 18" of snow on a car.  My wife's car is parked outside off to the side of the garage. I am now in the process of cleaning off the car. Boy talk about a lot of hard work. I am using the broom for the garage. The top lake effect snow is easy to get off but the old wet snow is not so much. It is up to 23 here in my yard now but but when one is out there for a while it is still cold.

[tStacsh]

5 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

So is this saying temps may not stay warm for very long or the warmer temps will be colder than possibly forecast?

I think the warmer temps are being underdone for later next week.    They are mentioning 40's here, where most models don't have much more than mid to upper 30's yet.  After that is anyone's guess, but I think it will be pretty normalish for the rest of winter.  Some ups and downs, but not to the extreme we just saw.  Maybe a few brief colder snaps and I've got a feeling another big storm coming for someone.  

[westMJim]

Got my wife's car all cleaned off now. And did the part of the driveway were it was parked. The car had 18" of snow the bottom 2" or more was that wet snow that fell before the lake effect snow fell. It was a lot of hard work getting it all off the car. But it is all clean now. Also did the driveway where it was parked with the snowblower.

[westMJim]

44 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Maybe a few brief colder snaps and I've got a feeling another big storm coming for someone.  

Hate to say it but we are over due for a ice event. But I agree there more than likely be one or more big storms maybe even in March.  

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Hate to say it but we are over due for a ice event. But I agree there more than likely be one or more big storms maybe even in March.  

Not sure the last ice storm.  My twins were born during the early February ice storm of 2019.  That was kind of crazy.  

[Grizzcoat]

Last 6 Jan's at KDSM for snowfall. Unreal. 2024 is now 27.2:  6 year avg since 2019 is an insane 18.1"  or 8.6" above the 30 year avg. That's 6 years of data- 20% of the of 'mean' ( not just a a year or three) -- the new 30 years running mean for - minus some real low JAN's from  25' to 29' = Jan avg  snowfall is going WAY up.

FWIW -- the following FEB's in these years were no picnic for temp and snowfall. Avg is colder and snowier - esp temp.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 23/17 there was 1.2” of snowfall there has now been 14 days in a row of some snowfall. In that time there has been 29.8” of snowfall. There is now 13” on the ground at the airport and 16” here in MBY. The sun was out 4% of the possible time yesterday.

For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1907 and the record low of -22 was set in 1994. The wettest January 19^th was 1.85” (all rain) set in 1907. The most snowfall of 6.4” fell in 2003 and the most on the ground was 21” in 1979. Last year the H/L was 42/34. At the current time it is 15 here in MBY with light snow falling.

[westMJim]

@Tom The last event is for your area 

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan

1907: Southerly winds bring moist and mild weather with highs in the 50s followed by heavy rains as a cold front moves through. Grand Rapids sets a record high for the date of 56 degrees along with a record rainfall total of 1.84 inches.

1979: A homeowner was killed when his garage roof collapsed due to the weight of the snow on it. Several other homeowners suffered injuries as roofs collapsed throughout southwest Michigan. There were more than 50 reported roof collapses by the end of February, with most of the collapses occurring in the second half of January. At one point the snowpack was measured as weighing more than 25 pounds per square foot.

1994: Temperatures remain below zero all day long. Extreme cold prevails from the 14th to the 21st but this is the coldest day. Grand Rapids ties the all-time record low for the month of January with 22 below zero, followed by a high of only 2 below zero. An unofficial low of 53 below zero is recorded in the Upper Peninsula at Amasa, Michigan. Water and sewer pipes freeze, causing 50 million dollars in damage across Michigan.

2019, a long-duration snowfall was ongoing across Southeast Michigan with a few bands of heavy snow forming over Metro Detroit and locations to the south. These areas saw the highest totals from this 18-hour snowfall, coming in around 5 to 8 inches.

Across the USA 

1961:  Eight inches of snow fell and caused crippling traffic jams around the Washington D.C. area on the eve of John Kennedy’s inauguration. The president-elect had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, reportedly had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather, and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony.

1993: An unusual series of Pacific storm systems tracked across Arizona from January 6th through the 19th, producing heavy and prolonged precipitation across the state. These heavy rains caused the most widespread and severe flooding in Arizona since the turn of the century. The protracted rainfall over the 2 weeks caused multiple flood peaks on most streams and rivers. A large garbage landfill and portions of the new Mill Avenue Bridge under construction were washed away by the raging Salt River. The Gillespie Dam west of Phoenix was damaged as high water spread throughout low-lying areas. One man drowned while trying to cross the Agua Fria River.

 

[Tom]

50 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 23/17 there was 1.2” of snowfall there has now been 14 days in a row of some snowfall. In that time there has been 29.8” of snowfall. There is now 13” on the ground at the airport and 16” here in MBY. The sun was out 4% of the possible time yesterday.

For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1907 and the record low of -22 was set in 1994. The wettest January 19^th was 1.85” (all rain) set in 1907. The most snowfall of 6.4” fell in 2003 and the most on the ground was 21” in 1979. Last year the H/L was 42/34. At the current time it is 15 here in MBY with light snow falling.

So your saying there has been some snow falling in the air for the last 2 weeks??  That's gotta be some record stretch...very cool...I'm sure you enjoyed it!

[westMJim]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

So your saying there has been some snow falling in the air for the last 2 weeks??  That's gotta be some record stretch...very cool...I'm sure you enjoyed it!

Not sure if it is a record or not. Starting on  January 6th here are the snowfall amounts at Grand Rapids. T,  0.3",  T,  4.1", 1.5", 0.9", 7.0", 3.9", 7.6", 0.3", 1.2", 1.8", 1.2:, and at this time light snow is falling.

[westMJim]

Nor sure what the record for days in a row of snow snow fall at Grand Rapids as I stated GR is now at 14 days in a row of at least some snow falling.  But that 14 days is not a record in December 1998 into January of 1999 there was some snow fall at Grand Rapids for 20 days in a row from December 26th 1998 to January 16, 1999. 

[chescowxman]

Have picked up a little over 1" of new snow so far here in NW Chester County PA since the snow began at 5am temp down to 23.3

[Tom]

Wow, I just realized there is a sweet Lake Effect band of SN ripping in the northern burbs of DTX...couple bands there in the "thumb" of MI...

[Up_north_MI]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Wow, I just realized there is a sweet Lake Effect band of SN ripping in the northern burbs of DTX...couple bands there in the "thumb" of MI...

It’s been snowing hard off and on here at our place in northern St Clair county all morning, probably picked up 5-6 inches in the past 6 hours and it’s really coming down hard now as I type this. Heading back up to northern lower this afternoon so hopefully the snow stops so they can get the roads cleared up. I’m going to go out and measure after this snow band moves through but I’m thinking there’s 8-10” total on the ground around here right now.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

It’s been snowing hard off and on here at our place in northern St Clair county all morning, probably picked up 5-6 inches in the past 6 hours and it’s really coming down hard now as I type this. Heading back up to northern lower this afternoon so hopefully the snow stops so they can get the roads cleared up. I’m going to go out and measure after this snow band moves through but I’m thinking there’s 8-10” total on the ground around here right now.

That's impressive!  Congrats on the score..

[tStacsh]

Long Range GFS would eviscerate any snow on the ground by the end of January.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Once again mby in the bullseye!  I measured  4.0" and by the time i got outside  at midnight  there had been some blowing.  It may have been closer to 4.5 plus.  So  heres some stats for mby near Ottumwa  Iowa:

SNOW

Season:  43.2"

January  38.7"

Past 11 days 38.2"

 

PRECIP

January  3.14"

December 2.73"

The past 33 days: 5.51"

Just incredible!

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Picked up another 3" today in Ashland! Surrounding reports are higher. Various locations of 5-6" (and higher) in West Virginia. Closer to my location, Cattletsburg had a report of 4.5" which is in the same county as here. I'll have to do some more digging, couldn't find Ashland anywhere in the last 50 reports that NWS keeps on their quick LSR page. 

Getting close to half our annual snowfall already, if February gets one or two more of these types of snows we should be ok on snow.