January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Timmy said:

Jan 1950 redux?

Much more of a Jan 1969 vibe to me.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

One of my favorite New Year's memories...went to play mud football with some college friends, as was our tradition at the time, and shortly after we got to the park it started snowing and kept up all afternoon.

Ended up with about 2-3" in Tacoma.

[MossMan]

Was a bit chilly in Moses Lake 13yrs ago, and a bit chilly at home 7yrs ago. 
And I just took the dogs for a walk and my hands got a bit chilly so that’s a start! 

 

Edited January 1 by MossMan

[The Cats Meow]

19 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

12z ecmwf block isn't quite as sturdy and positioning not quite as favorable as GFS (but what would be) so Vegas is the real winner. Day 8-9 looks pretty good though. Lot of potential.

Most like a bunch of wobbles east and west in the coming week.

 

[ShawniganLake]

48 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

I don’t know seems like some people are already measuring snow in feet in their backyards. I’m just concerned my 40” measuring stick won’t be long enough.  I read something last night about sea effect snow squalls and houses being buried up to their rooftops on the coast.  

[Front Ranger]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t know seems like some people are already measuring snow in feet in their backyards. I’m just concerned my 40” measuring stick won’t be long enough.  I read something last night about sea effect snow squalls and houses being buried up to their rooftops on the coast.  

SNOW TSUNAMI 2023

[Phil]

It’s snowing back home and I’m stuck in Miami.  

[Mercurial]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Much more of a Jan 1969 vibe to me.

Whitefish recorded 40" of snow from 4.2" precip that month.  

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s snowing back home and I’m stuck in Miami.  

That’s on you.  

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SNOW TSUNAMI 2023

Snownami 2024

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Whitefish recorded 40" of snow from 4.2" precip that month.  

Shawnigan Lake recorded 50.5” of snow from 7.58” of precip that month but we did have some a little rain mixed in

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the Sierras are finally going to score.

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like the Sierras are finally going to score.

I think this is the start of a very active winter weather for the whole West Coast 🌨

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls had 95.5” of snow in January 1969 and recorded a max depth of 51”. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS is similar to its 00Z run... ripe with potential.  

The control run could not be any more different than its 00Z run.   Worthless.  

[TT-SEA]

Full 12Z EPS run...

 

[selkirks]

57 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Euro is on board 

I like that it's coast-to-coast.

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

Was that a metro wide event or more Clark County focused? I think this area did pretty well with the big storm a few days later but I'm not sure about the snows in late December and New Year's.

[snow_wizard]

The graph cast continues to look the coldest with the second trough.  More amplitude and more back digging.  Other models appear to playing catch up.  This AI model may be for real.

As for the third trough on the EPS...pretty hard to believe the outcome would be that bad when the same ensemble shows a trifecta of -PNA, -EPO, and -NAO.

[Phishy Wx]

Jan 69 already had cold air in place (at least over here) and 11" of snow on the ground on Jan 1st.  a brief warm up then the hammer drop around the 2nd week.  but there was snow cover the whole month.  doesn't seem like the best anal log.

also 42" of snow on the ground on 2/1/69

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Jan 69 already had cold air in place (at least over here) and 11" of snow on the ground on Jan 1st.  a brief warm up then the hammer drop around the 2nd week.  but there was snow cover the whole month.  doesn't seem like the best anal log

The atmosphere could go into the exact same configuration during the month though.

[snow_wizard]

The thing to watch for with the third trough is how that low north of Hawaii plays out after day 10.  If it moves NE and comes between the two lobes of above normal heights the pattern will fail.  If the westernmost lobe rides up over the ULL and the ULL stays north of Hawaii then we are golden.

[snow_wizard]

It managed to drop to 30 here last night.  Decent start to the New Year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It managed to drop to 30 here last night.  Decent start to the New Year.

We had a freeze this morning too as we were above the fog layer. Right on the edge now with fog, but blue skies visible above. 

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Was that a metro wide event or more Clark County focused? I think this area did pretty well with the big storm a few days later but I'm not sure about the snows in late December and New Year's.

I think Wilsonville or so was the prime latitude for that particular storm. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I called this several weeks ago. It was all playing out just like 2019 but a month early. Nino. Phil posting Alaskan low charts, forecasting torching. Y’all provided carbon copy screenshots from 2019. Full gloom doom in the forums. Just like the stock market, always buy at the lows.  

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I called this several weeks ago. It was all playing out just like 2019 but a month early. Nino. Phil posting Alaskan low charts, forecasting torching. Y’all provided carbon copy screenshots from 2019. Full gloom doom in the forums. Just like the stock market, always buy at the lows.  

I would bet a large some of money this window of winter weather will be much shorter than February-March 2019. 
 

*sorry. Someone has to play the Debbie downer right now.  

[Cold Snap]

Managed to get to 30 here this morning. Nice way to start the new year.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I would bet a large some of money this window of winter weather will be much shorter than February-March 2019. 

Without a doubt. But still a “shock” nonetheless 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I would bet a large some of money this window of winter weather will be much shorter than February-March 2019. 

Longer this time. The majority of January all the way until the second week of March this go around!

[TT-SEA]

Outdoor hockey in Seattle.  Perfect day!

[ShawniganLake]

25 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Jan 69 already had cold air in place (at least over here) and 11" of snow on the ground on Jan 1st.  a brief warm up then the hammer drop around the 2nd week.  but there was snow cover the whole month.  doesn't seem like the best anal log.

also 42" of snow on the ground on 2/1/69

Late December had a top tier arctic airmass in 1968. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Late December had a top tier arctic airmass in 1968. 

No doubt.

It depends what he meant by analog though.  Just because 1968-69 had the big blast in December doesn't mean the Jan 1969 pattern can't set up this month.  The hallmark of that pattern was very low NAO which we are supposed to have over the next couple of weeks.

[ShawniganLake]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silver Falls had 95.5” of snow in January 1969 and recorded a max depth of 51”. 

One interesting thing about that month was that we had 50” of snow but no single big snow storms.  21 days with measurable snow! Often coming 2-3” at a time. 

[Doinko]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silver Falls had 95.5” of snow in January 1969 and recorded a max depth of 51”. 

Looks like a lot of days with snow in the air here or wet snow, before a good 12.5" snowstorm below freezing and another quick 4" transitioning out of the cold. 19.8" for the month

[TigerWoodsLibido]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Outdoor hockey in Seattle.  Perfect day!

I keep forgetting that Seattle got an NHL team after Oregon once again got spurned and still has only 1 pro sports team despite being the 23rd largest media market in the USA.

I mostly forget because ROOT sports NW refuses to negotiate with Dish Network. Fortunately this will be the last year I have Dish since Oregon will be joining a better conference and the B1G network is on every TV provider and the Pac12 Network will die along with the league that Larry Scott destroyed.

And the Blosers are a dumpster fire.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

The EPS was way better than the 500mb mean would indicate.  A lot of cold members there.

[snow_wizard]

Best run yet for snow as well.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a lot of days with snow in the air here or wet snow, before a good 12.5" snowstorm below freezing and another quick 4" transitioning out of the cold. 19.8" for the month

It was below freezing here for a full 2 weeks.  Seems like Andrew generally scores a lot of foothill level snow in the cold onshore flow that often sets up south of the arctic front. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got that dawg in 'em.