January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño 3.4 went positive before the end of January 2017 and OLR/WC reflected a legit niño costero/EPAC niño by February. There are full blown niño years with worse presentations than that.  

To argue 2016/17 was a La Niña is to argue against reality itself. Nov/Dec are debatable, but Jan/Feb/Mar aren’t even in the ballpark.

It had five straight tri-monthly readings in ENSO 3.4 of -.5 or lower. Therefore, it met official criteria. Are you saying because it peaked in the fall instead of winter it shouldn't count?

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

These snow maps remind me of late February and early March 2023. Which really didn’t amount to much below 500’ or near the sound. 

I completely agree. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No bueno. Block is weak and getting squeezed by Aleutian energy.

Meridional component is actually somewhat sharper in the D6-8 range over AK/GOA despite 500mb heights.

Which is when you want it, because by mid-month the next Siberian High descent and subsequent NPAC jet extension/+dAAMt will be underway. That GOA high/-NPO/-PNA pattern is not going to hold for very long before constructive interference w/ El Niño resumes.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

 

Hey, no need to punch me, I'm rooting for the block! Don't punch the messenger.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Heard Lake Tahoe could get 8-16 inches tonight. That guy has to be happy.

[Slushy Inch]

Euro is so much better!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

WOOOO-HOOOOO! More then 60" at the ski resorts, 2+ feet for me, I LOVE IT!

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

These snow maps remind me of late February and early March 2023. Which really didn’t amount to much below 500’ or near the sound. 

I lucked out at 550’. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Meridional component is actually somewhat sharper in the D6-8 range over AK/GOA despite 500mb heights.

Which is when you want it, because by mid-month the next Siberian High descent and subsequent NPAC jet extension/+dAAMt will be underway. That GOA high/-NPO/-PNA pattern is not going to hold for very long before constructive interference w/ El Niño resumes.

Duh

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And yet most on here are in a sour mood this morning? Looks good to me! 

I'm beyond the Pepto.  Don't know what to call those colors.  Probably won't verify, but it looks good for me for decent snow at least.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

I lucked out at 550’. 

Yeah I’m sure you and Mr.Snowmizer will be just fine with the upcoming pattern. For most of us low elevation peasants at the moment this is marginal at best…but there’s plenty of time for things to get worse/better. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Meridional component is actually somewhat sharper in the D6-8 range over AK/GOA despite 500mb heights.

Which is when you want it, because by mid-month the next Siberian High descent and subsequent NPAC jet extension/+dAAMt will be underway. That GOA high/-NPO/-PNA pattern is not going to hold for very long before constructive interference w/ El Niño resumes.

Fantastic. Regardless, the block modeled on the Euro is clearly collapsing by the end, which is not really what we want...regardless of what may happen down the line.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Fantastic. Regardless, the block modeled on the Euro is clearly collapsing by the end, which is not really what we want...regardless of what may happen down the line.

It’s gonna collapse at some point. If we get snow between now and then it’s more than we could have ever hoped for. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm beyond the Pepto.  Don't know what to call those colors.  Probably won't verify, but it looks good for me for decent snow at least.

And I’m bordering the first shade of purple! 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It had five straight tri-monthly readings in ENSO 3.4 of -.5 or lower. Therefore, it met official criteria. Are you saying because it peaked in the fall instead of winter it shouldn't count?

I see you cut off 2017.  

The trimonthly ONI lags the actual ENSO state by several months due to the 3-month smoothing (and the fact SSTs lag the atmosphere during ENSO transitions anyway).

It did meet official niña criteria in 2016. But that was ancient history by the time we turned the calendar to 2017.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s gonna collapse at some point. If we get snow between now and then it’s more than we could have ever hoped for. 

Of course. Would just like to see this opportunity maximized. Block never really gets a chance to flex on this run.

Right now it looks pretty borderline for lowland snow, but at least this time of year that has a better chance of working out.

[SeanNyberg]

The 12z Euro is much better for lowland snow than the 12z GFS and that just feels weird to me. Lol.

good weird. But still weird.

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño 3.4 went positive before the end of January 2017 and OLR/WC reflected a legit niño costero/EPAC niño by February. There are full blown niño years with worse presentations than that.  

To argue 2016/17 was a La Niña is to argue against reality itself. Nov/Dec are debatable, but Jan/Feb/Mar aren’t even in the ballpark.

But it snowed at my house, Phil.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Fantastic. Regardless, the block modeled on the Euro is clearly collapsing by the end, which is not really what we want...regardless of what may happen down the line.

The NPAC block was never all that impressive to begin with outside some stray OP runs and an ensemble run or two.

Like almost every episode of deep western troughing during El Niño, the heaviest lifting is done via retrograde -NAO. Sometimes this even happens in La Niña such as Feb 2021, which actually had +PNA during the arctic blast.

[Timmy Supercell]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño 3.4 went positive before the end of January 2017 and OLR/WC reflected a legit niño costero/EPAC niño by February. There are full blown niño years with worse presentations than that.  

To argue 2016/17 was a La Niña is to argue against reality itself. Nov/Dec are debatable, but Jan/Feb/Mar aren’t even in the ballpark.

If you had been in central Oregon during that winter, it was the most consistent season for snow/cold in the mountains in probably that entire decade.

Other real/longer La Ninas such as '10-'11 even failed to provide such consistency. Besides, the true effects of that upward trend I thought aren't immediately seen. Feb-March '17 was nothing like that of '14 or '15.

[Phil]

Of course, most of these teleconnection indices are overrated anyway and reflect red noise 90% of the time. If it were up to me I’d change the presentation of NAO/PNA/EPO/etc to either “dormant” or “active” on some sort of scale like weak, moderate, strong, or whatever.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Snow ❄!!

[iFred]

If I were to take the advice of a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences seriously, I’d probably limit posting of any operational solution that is more than 72 hours out to the trained professionals. It’s an ongoing problem in this community and wider profession that communication is taken out of context and we have people buying up bread and bananas when we are at best looking at graupel and a couple sub freezing lows.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The NPAC block was never all that impressive to begin with outside some stray OP runs and an ensemble run or two.

Like almost every episode of deep western troughing during El Niño, the heaviest lifting is done via retrograde -NAO. Sometimes this even happens in La Niña such as Feb 2021, which actually had +PNA during the arctic blast.

Sure. I don't disagree with any of this. I'm rooting for a stronger NPAC block and more cold air for the West, which is theoretically possible you would probably even admit. 

[RentonHill]

Day 12 EPS

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course, most of these teleconnection indices are overrated anyway and reflect red noise 90% of the time. If it were up to me I’d change the presentation of NAO/PNA/EPO/etc to either “dormant” or “active” on some sort of scale like weak, moderate, strong, or whatever.

When those little red PNA lines are in the - I will almost always see at least some flakes and sometimes many many flakes. When those little red lines are in the + I rarely see snowflakes. Sure it has happened but I like to see those little red lines in the -… - is good and makes me feel fuzzy inside! 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course, most of these teleconnection indices are overrated anyway and reflect red noise 90% of the time. If it were up to me I’d change the presentation of NAO/PNA/EPO/etc to either “dormant” or “active” on some sort of scale like weak, moderate, strong, or whatever.

I think we can all agree that what we really need is Phil in charge of all the acronyms.

[High Desert Mat?]

Now snowing in Redmond. Temp is 29. Not much to write home about tho. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Day 12 EPS

Wow talk about slamming the door.

[Phil]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

If you had been in central Oregon during that winter, it was the most consistent season for snow/cold in the mountains in years in probably that entire decade.

Other real/longer La Ninas such as '10-'11 even failed to provide such consistency. Besides, the true effects of that upward trend I thought aren't immediately seen. Feb-March '17 was nothing like that of '14 or '15.

If ENSO events were classified based on snowfall in the PNW mountains, you would have a point.

And the whole thing about mid-latitude ENSO effects lagging ONI/SSTs is a myth that started from a similarly-false logic on easternwx forums 20+ years ago, because El Niño winters generally produced crappy patterns for east coast snow until late January.

Except that in of itself is a feature of a dynamically coupled El Niño atmosphere across the seasonal cycle. You can’t decipher ENSO from small scale regional metrics far outside the tropics because they’re always state-dependent to begin with (otherwise every Niño/Niña event would produce the same general outcomes everywhere, which we know isn’t the case).

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I lucked out at 550’. 

Same day up here

[Mid Valley Duck]

well that EPS run was depressing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just looked at the full EURO operational run. At face value there is nothing to support the snow totals it's spitting out. 

As for 2016-17, it is my understanding it met the official criteria of a Nina. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

EPS is that feeling when you get your fingers slammed in the door…

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When those little red PNA lines are in the - I will almost always see at least some flakes and sometimes many many flakes. When those little red lines are in the + I rarely see snowflakes. Sure it has happened but I like to see those little red lines in the -… - is good and makes me feel fuzzy inside! 

I’ll wager the correlation is much…fuzzier than your memory has lead you to believe. A real correlation no doubt! But fuzzy.

You won’t remember all the times it didn’t snow with -PNA because..why would you? Everyone (myself included) falls victim to such selective memorization.

Give me a station near you with snowfall data back 20+ years and I’ll gladly run said data and find a correlation coefficient. Or any other metric you desire.

[DeepFriedEgg]

It was a good run boys. I’m sure YVR will pull of a 8 in snowstorm somehow.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As for 2016-17, it is my understanding it met the official criteria of a Nina. 

It did, but Phil is arguing (for some reason) that because 3.4 was no longer in Nina criteria by January or whatever, it doesn't count.

Which is weird to me, because I thought there was a general understanding that there's a lag from ENSO to tangible effect on the weather. And it's not like there's any rule that 3.4 has to stay below a certain threshold through the winter for it to be classified as a "real" Nina.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It did, but Phil is arguing (for some reason) that because 3.4 was no longer in Nina criteria by January or whatever, it doesn't count.

Which is weird to me, because I thought there was a general understanding that there's a lag from ENSO to tangible effect on the weather. And it's not like there's any rule that 3.4 has to stay below a certain threshold through the winter for it to be classified as a "real" Nina.

The same person who rushes to correct me when I say 19-20 was a Nino, because it missed the ONI threshold by one month and 0.1C…

[the_convergence_zone]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

If I were to take the advice of a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences seriously, I’d probably limit posting of any operational solution that is more than 72 hours out to the trained professionals. It’s an ongoing problem in this community and wider profession that communication is taken out of context and we have people buying up bread and bananas when we are at best looking at graupel and a couple sub freezing lows.

Oh no I base all of my decisions on the F342 GFS, everybody in the professional community knows that the FV3 dynamic core is the gold standard of NWP. That's also why I purchased bread and bananas 13 times over the past week. Pardon me while I head over to Trader Joe's to return them again, I need to get there before the 18Z GFS comes out. 

[Requiem]

See you guys in a few hours when the GEFS has inevitably magically improved