January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Winterdog said:

My wife and I are just getting over that exact same thing.  My cough lasted 6 weeks and her sinus infection is still going a bit.  Never got terribly miserable but it was bad enough that you didn't want to go anywhere or do anything.  49 here after a low of 41, partly cloudy

My daughter starting kindergarten last year was rough. She got sick so many times. This year hasn't been as bad. YET. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

50 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Salem

Portland

Thank you very much!

[CloudJunkie]

31 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

We all know there are probably like 5-10 lurkers right now who have been reading the thread but have never posted. During the 2019 event, I checked this site religiously  every day before joining like 2 years later. Before the event starts, I challenge you to create an account and say hello! No professional met experience required, but of course those are always appreciated. So if you live in WA, OR, ID, MT, or even northern CA join us...and share your snow totals later.

I've been enjoying these threads since the 2021 heat wave, but my background is in geology not meteorology.  I don't know enough about atmospheric oscillation phases and whatnot to have anything productive to add to the conversation. I read Cliff Mass's book about PNW weather, but it doesn't go into that kind of detail. Any textbook recommendations?

[SnowySeeker50]

[The Winter Warlock]

Yes, soon this domain shall belong entirely to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Im in another meeting. Someone please post the analogs lol. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sooo.... I kind of told my Cat....

BUT.... She just looked at me and licked her butt. I don't know what that means exactly if that's bad or good in terms of jinxes....

18z GFS in 27 minutes

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

51 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Based on my past results I think this pattern could produce 2’+ snow totals for my location. Let’s get this rolling 

Nice to see you on here, I remember you from marks blog. 

 

I'm thinking the same thing for where I live, 2'+ is almost a lock at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately I won't be here for this run as I have to take my Cat to the vet for a check-up. Yeah. Fun stuff.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im in another meeting. Someone please post the analogs lol. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im in another meeting. Someone please post the analogs lol. 

As you wish, Andrew.

[Gradient Keeper]

54 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Based on my past results I think this pattern could produce 2’+ snow totals for my location. Let’s get this rolling 

Ohhh, yeah hey I remember you from the Fox12 Weather Blog! Welcome to the madness!

[Timmy]

Getting my studs on today

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

53 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

We all know there are probably like 5-10 lurkers right now who have been reading the thread but have never posted. During the 2019 event, I checked this site religiously  every day before joining like 2 years later. Before the event starts, I challenge you to create an account and say hello! No professional met experience required, but of course those are always appreciated. So if you live in WA, OR, ID, MT, or even northern CA join us...and share your snow totals later.

I second this. Before I started commenting I frequently lurked here for years, well atleast during winter. Made an account last February, but didn't finally comment November. To all of the lurkers, make an account and comment, your input and excitement is appreciated whether you're an amatuer or a pro!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls came in with a brutal +5.3 departure in December. Tied for 5th warmest December. Tied 1981, right behind 1958 and 1979 and right ahead of 1962, so some good stuff followed in many of the following Januaries. 

[Kolk1604]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Unfortunately I won't be here for this run as I have to take my Cat to the vet for a check-up. Yeah. Fun stuff.

Wait a check-up? Is this something I should know? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late December 1973 shows up on the analog list. The first part of 1974 was bitterly cold up here. No snow though.

Day   MaxT   MinT   AvgT   Dprt    HDD    CDD   Pcpn   Snow   Dpth
 1      37     18   27.5   -9.3     37      0   0.00    0.0      0
 2      33     15   24.0  -12.9     41      0   0.00    0.0      0
 3      36     22   29.0   -7.9     36      0   0.00    0.0      0
 4      35     11   23.0  -14.0     42      0   0.00    0.0      0
 5      30     15   22.5  -14.6     42      0   0.00    0.0      0
 6      33      6   19.5  -17.6     45      0   0.00    0.0      0
 7      33      8   20.5  -16.7     44      0   0.00    0.0      0
 8      31      9   20.0  -17.3     45      0   0.00    0.0      0
 9      31      6   18.5  -18.8     46      0   0.00    0.0      0
10      39     10   24.5  -12.9     40      0   0.00    0.0      0
11      36     13   24.5  -13.0     40      0   0.00    0.0      0

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Wait a check-up? Is this something I should know? 

I don't know. She just needs the annual check-up. On that note. I had a different cat back in 2008 (Peachy) and very eerily similar she too licked her bum when I would model ride or type out extensive analysis. I think it forebode only good things.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This list is banging too.

[Snownerd3000]

54 minutes ago, iFred said:

Dalle tried.

Have it recreate the bus hanging over I-5 from 08.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This list is banging too.

Exceptional potential ahead. Perhaps historic. The correlation score % are quite high too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We see these could be historic runs every year now since about 2019, sooner or later we are going to get annihilated.

[Gradient Keeper]

BTW, today I am total f****** liar. Not only to you all, but to myself. I haven't "kept" any gradients today. No posts. No updates. What a lackluster piece of shit.

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 14 minutes

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silver Falls came in with a brutal +5.3 departure in December. Tied for 5th warmest December. Tied 1981, right behind 1958 and 1979 and right ahead of 1962, so some good stuff followed in many of the following Januaries. 

January 1959 was a pretty great event here. Hillsboro had a 6" snowstorm on 25/15 and 31/19 days

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Have it recreate the bus hanging over I-5 from 08.

If you look close you can see Rich Marriot driving a deicer truck.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

As you wish, Andrew.

Taking a deep dive into these, which is always a good idea with analogs...

Jan 1959 brought three straight days in the 20s to PDX, but only a little transition snow at the end. SEA saw a bit more snow and two days in the 20s.

Jan 1962 didn't get real cold until about 5 days after this date, delivered a couple sub-freezing days to both SEA/PDX, but very little snow. Extended period below 40.

Jan 1968...chilly but not Arctic, no real snow at either location.

Jan 1963 was very cold, delivered several sub freezing days, including a 21/11 at PDX and a 24/12 at SEA. A little bit of snow, SEA did better with the Arctic front.

Dec 1981...chilly, not Arctic, PDX scored a couple inches of snow at the end.

Jan 1996. Many members will have memories of this one, both SEA and PDX got a decent amount of snow (3-6") going into an extended cold spell, which included a 23/18 day at PDX, a crippling ice storm in early February, followed by a major Pineapple express and flooding

Jan 1971, cold but not Arctic, SEA got a bunch of mostly wet snow that did add up to 4" on the ground.

Dec 1973, led to a long cold spell that was quite a bit colder for PDX, which saw a total of 6 sub freezing highs. Only a little bit of snow at the end.

Jan 2008...chilly with some highs in the upper 30s, no real snow to speak of.

 

[Randyc321]

22 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Unfortunately I won't be here for this run as I have to take my Cat to the vet for a check-up. Yeah. Fun stuff.

At least she cleaned her butt first.  

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

BTW, today I am total f****** liar. Not only to you all, but to myself. I haven't "kept" any gradients today. No posts. No updates. What a lackluster piece of .

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 14 minutes

Dude, aren't you forgetting something?

Edit: I didn't see you had to take your cat to the vet for butt stuff.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This list is banging too.

Dec 1968!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

January 1959 was a pretty great event here. Hillsboro had a 6" snowstorm on 25/15 and 31/19 days

26/12 was the coldest day at Silver Falls with that. SLE had a 26/17 day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 1962 was pretty legit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dude, aren't you forgetting something?

Edit: I didn't see you had to take your cat to the vet for butt stuff.

That dude deserves an award for best drunk actor ever!

[Gradient Keeper]

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 1962 was pretty legit.

Low of 8 at SLE, 6 at EUG. Back when SLE could often compete with EUG for really cold lows.

And a -1 in Cottage Grove!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon is rock steady.

[AbbyJr]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This list is banging too.

December 28, 1968 is on the list. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon is rock steady.

12z JMA was pretty solid too. 

[Cold Snap]

I wonder how drunk this 18z run will be. It is the 18z after all.

[van city]

 

[Phil]

https://x.com/griteater/status/1742645377587913006?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ