Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
DOWS data on the Greenfield tornado.
The DOW team focused on the Greenfield tornado measured preliminary winds of 250 mph with the possibility that some may have reached as high as 290, at 144 feet above ground. Their assessment was that the storm was very intense and tight. It exhibited extreme multi-vortex circulation. If the 290 mph speed is verified, it would be in the top tier of radar measured violent tornadoes. Only Bridge Creek 1999, El Reno 2011, and El Reno 2013 measured higher Doppler wind speeds. So far, the NWS in Des Moines has classified the storm as EF3, which means damage consistent with winds under 165 mph. They continue to gather evidence and I think there is a strong possibility it's upgraded to EF4 status based on DOW data and damage I've seen.
Sneaky warm Spring around here, it hasn't felt like a top 10 warmest spring.
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While this Spring (since March 1st) has been mild we've done it without having early season heat. Through 5/21 this is the 10th warmest Spring on record however we have not had a single 90 degree day in KC. The warmest temperature this Spring thus far is 86 degrees.
10:38 PM · May 22, 2024
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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/59. It was a unusual warm season day as the high was set at 1AM you do not see that often during the warm season. The was no rain it was yet another windy day with a peak gust of 41 MPH out of the SW. There was 59% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 71/53 the record high of 90 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 1963. The wettest was 2.22” in 1904 Last year the H/L was 82/50.
The modern May heat train is beginning to sputter. You can see its context within the general broad, gradual increase in temperatures associated with global warming. Years like 2023 are going to happen stochastically (especially now) but it's clear whatever vendetta mother nature had against us in the early warm season is beginning to wane.
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