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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
Just now, MossMan said:

It’s in my top 8 events of my lifetime! 

Myspace top 8?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
Just now, Slushy Inch said:

6z eps shifted west 

 

 

 

That's great news. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Port Angeles Foothiller Veteran

Port Angeles Foothiller

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Pretty cold temps on the EPS. I would say, as of right now, there's a good chance of having a solid cold weekend next week. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-indiv_snow-4326400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4326400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-indiv_snow-4326400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4326400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KPLU-indiv_snow-4326400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KPLU-daily_tmin_tmax-4326400.png

Can you give me a Port Angeles run of this?

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s in my top 8 events of my lifetime! 

I don’t know what place it has, but definitely somewhere in the top 5. Had over a foot of snow on the ground at one point, and an official low of 4˚F (coldest in 50 years) at YVR and 7˚F IMBY. Plus a white Christmas!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Chewbacca Defense Grand Master

Chewbacca Defense

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

2021 was my first winter in Vancouver. That was a great cold snap for Bellingham, too.

I'll have to dig through my pictures, I have a horrible time remembering that stuff.

Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station:  https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'll have to dig through my pictures, I have a horrible time remembering that stuff.

Christmas Day was your big snowfall, I saw reports of 10–14" in Bellingham. Got about 5" IMBY; my big dump of snow came several days later.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know what place it has, but definitely somewhere in the top 5. Had over a foot of snow on the ground at one point, and an official low of 4˚F (coldest in 50 years) at YVR and 7˚F IMBY. Plus a white Christmas!

The timing was perfect l, started snowing the evening of Christmas Eve, went below freezing Christmas morning with snow falling and we didn’t get above 32 again until January 2nd. 

IMG_1541.jpeg

IMG_1543.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
Just now, ShawniganLake said:

What time frame are we talking about

Not that one.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The timing was perfect l, started snowing the evening of Christmas Eve, went below freezing Christmas morning with snow falling and we didn’t get above 32 again until January 2nd. 

IMG_1541.jpeg

IMG_1543.jpeg

A poster on the Canadian forum came up with a rating scale for cold snaps. As with hurricanes, it want from Category 1 through 5. He opined that a Cat 5 was probably impossible in today’s climate and with a bigger urban heat index, since one hadn’t happened in over 50 years. December 2021 met his definition for a Cat 5.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Chewbacca Defense Grand Master

Chewbacca Defense

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Christmas Day was your big snowfall, I saw reports of 10–14" in Bellingham. Got about 5" IMBY; my big dump of snow came several days later.

Oh yeah that one!  Went down to Larrabee and it was cool to see snow all the way down  to the water on the sound.

IMG_2372.jpg

IMG_2407.jpg

IMG_2432.JPG

IMG_2456.jpg

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Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station:  https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Yikes another big step back. This is starting to look like a non event south of the border. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SnarkyGoblin Grand Master

SnarkyGoblin

Posted
Posted

GFS 12z Op not great but pay no attention to the in-house troll Andrew. 

Everyone needs to look at the last several GFS op runs and you will see why just looking at the GFS op for guidance 6+ days out would be unwise.

Probably not historic given the recent trends across all models - but certainly not cancelled.

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Randyc321 Mentor

Randyc321

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes another big step back. This is starting to look like a non event south of the border. 

Why do you do that?  I'm curious.  You post slightly to mainly misleading statements all the time.

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