January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Deweydog]

Curious to see how next Tuesday’s 12z will look.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

If and when there is undercutting, that isn't always a bad thing. It can lead to really big snowstorms.  So much of that depends on where the systems go.  North of the lows stay snow, and maybe a lot of it. South of course would be warmer

I believe December 2008 had undercutting systems, as well as late December 1996.  January 2011 was supposed to be an epic snowstorm, but the system went too far North.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Curious to see how next Tuesday’s 12z will look.

Different probably

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just checked the local Reddit group. The hype/panic induced by smartphones showing raw model output is underway.

LOL

Do any popular mobile weather apps take input directly from the ECMWF or gem? I don't have a weather app on my phone because they're useless 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just checked the local Reddit group. The hype/panic induced by smartphones showing raw model output is underway.

What is the local group by chance?

[DeepFriedEgg]

13 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Wish the base of the block was more stable. On ALL models. Especially the hot ones. 

Hard agree

[Parrot]

32 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

HOLY S$%* -21 IN BEND, 2 IN SALEM

There are only a handful of pixels in this map in which water is wet at 2m

[Blizzard777]

10 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Quit giving new members advice let them see random hour 216 maps and get way too hyped and tell their friends and family and look like total morons like the rest of us had to. It's a rite of passage.

 

I know better and I still get sucked in!!!! 
Live life fully !!!!

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Curious to see how next Tuesday’s 12z will look.

Exactly the same. Duh.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This really illustrates the strong correlation between GOA/Alaskan blocking and deep troughing in the West. The NAO is virtually unchanged, yet massive difference due to what's happening on the Pacific side.

Doesn't mean the NAO isn't playing a role in building/sustaining the pattern, but as far as I can tell, the biggest correlation for the PNW with the NAO is simply that when there's more NH blocking and amplification, that often results in a -NAO...along with -PNA/-EPO, etc.

The -EPO is stronger because the -NAO is stronger early on.

It’s a *retrograde pattern*, dummy. You know how that works, right?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

The town of stampede is a fire lookout and sometimes a forest ranger lives there. Been there many times. Right off the highway where the stampede pass exit is there are a few homes. Sytampede pass is a gravel road with a little green sign that says Stampede pass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

But, how does the icon look?

The ICON is always rock solid, no matter what it says. 

[Snownerd3000]

This Euro run is pure insanity but you know what, the other side of the globe has been seeing historic cold this winter as well.  With that cold spilling to this side of the pole is it really out of the question this could occur here? Def a grain of salt run, will likely not verify, but I wouldn't put it past this weird climate to deliver a historic blast just because Nino.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The -EPO is stronger because the -NAO was stronger early on.

It’s a *retrograde pattern*, dummy. You know how that works, right?

You’re being a d*ck for no reason…Jared didn’t even say nothing wrong. Could’ve just said you disagreed no?

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

I admit I lol’ed.

[RentonHill]

EPS members surface temps at Day 9. Maybe...10-12 or so that are legit like the OP? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Friday is going to be fun tracking the Arctic Front roll on down!

 

It's always very stressful tracking arctic fronts down here... In the 21st Century we don't have a great track record of them actually making it here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pass

[Slushy Inch]

Control reload.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You’re being a d*ck for no reason…Jared didn’t even say nothing wrong. Could’ve just said you disagreed no?

He and I have debated this in circles since before you and Fred joined as members on the old website. It’s almost an inside joke at this point. He knows exactly what he’s doing.

And I wasn’t being a dick. That’s me being nice.

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

LOL

Do any popular mobile weather apps take input directly from the ECMWF or gem? I don't have a weather app on my phone because they're useless 

Both Apple and Google use proprietary data for forecasting over 3 days. For Apple, they use The Weather Company for nowcasting and short term, along with some sources they bought with DarkSky.

Both companies track close to the Euro and NBM though and offer pretty low resolution outside of five days. You can see this with forecasts in the foothills or when precip types dont line up with temps.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

EPS members surface temps at Day 9. Maybe...10-12 or so that are legit like the OP? 

#32 just wants to watch the world burn.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

New profile picture, the 12z ecmwf lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

What is the local group by chance?

 

[the_convergence_zone]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS members surface temps at Day 9. Maybe...10-12 or so that are legit like the OP? 

2/3 of them look fairly cold which is the highest fraction we've had so far. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS members surface temps at Day 9. Maybe...10-12 or so that are legit like the OP? 

Probability of 20 or less.

[Phil]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

New profile picture, the 12z ecmwf lol

I’m saving multiple gifs of that 12z ECMWF run. Something you don’t see too often.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Well... That would be one way to break the January curse.

I would give anything to see us end it. I've been let down far too many times in January.

[Snownerd3000]

Day 4 and already 117 pages lol.  Happy new year indeed.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

2/3 of them look fairly cold which is the highest fraction we've had so far. 

Big improvement in clustering. Huge.

Not good enough to be confident about the outcome, but this is infinitely more meaningful than that crazy operational run.

[umadbro]

Test

[MossMan]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, odds are increasing for some good stuff is the big takeaway IMO. Ain’t no way we’re gonna have high temps 10-15 degrees though. Doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a good time though if it doesn’t verify to be this insane. 

I had a 17 degree high just last winter. It can happen! 

[Phil]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Day 4 and already 117 pages lol

Fred also reduced the number of posts listed per page.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim is going to Vapor lock when he see's this run!!

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's always very stressful tracking arctic fronts down here... In the 21st Century we don't have a great track record of them actually making it here. 

They are amazing force of nature to witness!!! Even though the event last 4 hours or less yielding a couple inches of snow it’s worth it to me. 

So hoping this event plays out 

[Phishy Wx]

we leaning, we leaning, we leaning>>>>>>>

 

>>>>>>>>towards the GOODS

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I had a 17 degree high just last winter. It can happen! 

Coldest of the century IMBY is 24 degrees on 12/27/21. Seems like a stretch to have high temps in the low to mid teens for places like Seattle or Tacoma. I know that back in the 20th century there’s plenty of examples of hitting that mark but we haven’t hit numbers like that since 1998. Maybe we’re due tho

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Test

it worked

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Fred also reduced the number of posts listed per page.

Well what was it before?

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS members surface temps at Day 9. Maybe...10-12 or so that are legit like the OP? 

The ECMWF operational run is truly insanity at the same time.