January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Arctic Front reaches Oregon by Thursday afternoon. The is flexing its muscle tonight. Good to have it on our side. It’s the 2nd best model in the World just behind the EURO.

 

 

Is it really second best?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Sometimes it feels like every model is injected with some sort of protocol data at first, then not, once removed it gives climo results and then bam climo goes out the window and we back to greatness, that may seem jibberish but its just a thought.

It's a physics engine based off heat and mass transfer.

[Mercurial]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Even with the pink at the border Washington can get totally nuked with snow no problem.  

IDK the PNW lowlands' climate, but around here the arrival of the pink is just going to shut the snow off lol

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Even with the pink at the border Washington can get totally nuked with snow no problem.  

Totally agree. 

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how the big picture is still so much the same as it has been up until day 5 or so and then one little thing sends the GFS into a tizzy.  Just as easy for the 6z to come back colder than ever.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is another strange aspect of this... the cold air just blossoms out of nowhere.   Aren't we normally tapping into an existing arctic air mass in these situations... like coming down from AK or retrograde?    I guess that's why we can have run where it all disappears.

This always happens with good high latitude blocking. There is still very cold air up there to tap into, just need the right pattern to force it down.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

90% sure DaBears is on here, but it's definitely not Sunriver.

Now I'm curious what's the back story behind dabears

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Is it really second best?

0% chance he's being serious 

[Snowlova]

gfs 06z and 12z will probably waffle back to colder solution

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Could be some initialization funkiness (recon flight data incorporated today or something?) and all models will be thrown off until next 12z runs

It just seems like typical gfs OP flailing. It’s not tracked as much when snow and cold aren’t a possibility in the runs…but how often do details massively change on the gfs with just standard rain events? It’s not exaggeration when people say it’s a horrible model. It’s just much more obvious when it’s under the scrutiny it is during an event like this. 

[MikeInEverett]

That trend of the block weakening has been worrying me since this morning. It’s gotten weaker and weaker in every run today. Need it to start trending the other direction quick.

00z GFS tonight looks similar to the 12z GFS yesterday. That run yesterday was one really bad run sandwiched between great runs, which was also caused by the block getting screwed up. 
 

pls euro

[Perturbed Member]

8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

FWIW the 00z UKMET is a massive improvement over the crap 12z run from earlier today

12z

00z

 

Final frame of tonight's run

Thursday evening it has -13c 850s into SEA and -11c over PDX

 

[AbbyJr]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS is not in the business of throwing the whole pattern away after D7 like the operational.

But it is certainly trending the polar low further east. Looks very similar to the operational. But it's the GFS so who cares.

[Phil]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

It just seems like typical gfs OP flailing. It’s not tracked as much when snow and cold aren’t a possibility in the runs…but how often do details massively change on the gfs with just standard rain events? It’s not exaggeration when people say it’s a horrible model. It’s just much more obvious when it’s under the scrutiny it is during an event like this. 

This.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

January 2011 busted within 48 hours, didn’t it? Now that was a bust!

It’s not even 120 hours out yet. We just don’t get the sort of great January busts they had in the good old days.

January sucks these days.

[The Winter Warlock]

The forum currently:

[RentonHill]

The shirts already shipped this HAS TO HAPPEN 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazing how the big picture is still so much the same as it has been up until day 5 or so and then one little thing sends the GFS into a tizzy.  Just as easy for the 6z to come back colder than ever.

It seemed like model consensus the last two days was to bring the arctic air all the way down into the SW US.   Now that doesn't seem like its on the table.    There has definitely been a trend today for less amplitude.   Which can also mean much more snowy for WA.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wait, tacoma isn't getting down to minus 21f?? 

[GHweatherChris]

Tonight's storm is effing everything up, was only supposed to see up to 1/2 inch of rain and already up to .55" of rain with moderate to heavy rain looking to last quite awhile per radar, this is the culprit.

Edited January 6 by GHweatherChris

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

0% chance he's being serious 

He's being serious.

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Could be some initialization funkiness (recon flight data incorporated today or something?) and all models will be thrown off until next 12z runs

There is that low around Anadyr that the GFS has been breaking down which isn’t amping the ridge as much. The other models keep that low consolidated.

Im wondering how much resolution is at play with that discrepancy.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

January 2011 busted within 48 hours, didn’t it? Now that was a bust!

It’s not even 120 hours out yet. We just don’t get the sort of great January busts they had in the good old days.

January sucks these days.

Nah, it was like 4-5 days out. And January 2011 was progged pretty consistently in the 5-8ish day range as a battlefield setup with tons of baroclinic stuff and things of a white variety. High risk/high reward stuff.

[AbbyJr]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

This.

If the 00Z Euro holds strong tonight, I won't be worried. But if it falls apart then I'll start to get nervous.

[MV_snow]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It just seems like typical gfs OP flailing. It’s not tracked as much when snow and cold aren’t a possibility in the runs…but how often do details massively change on the gfs with just standard rain events? It’s not exaggeration when people say it’s a horrible model. It’s just much more obvious when it’s under the scrutiny it is during an event like this. 

Yeah it’s kinda crazy we give the GFS the attention we do. I think a lot of it is because it’s one of the few to run at 6z and 18z that go the full length and ppl get bored in the middle of the night and afternoon without many other runs.

[Mid Valley Duck]

GEFS are a huge step back on the cold camp. Only 4 members drop below -10c for PDX

[Cold Snap]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a major blast on the way! Here's another view

I have a feeling the Euro will look similar to this later.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

January 2011 busted within 48 hours, didn’t it? Now that was a bust!

It’s not even 120 hours out yet. We just don’t get the sort of great January busts they had in the good old days.

January sucks these days.

Matt mentioned similarities to 2011 earlier today.   I don't remember the lead up to that event at all.   I barely remember what happened last week.  

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

January 2011 busted within 48 hours, didn’t it? Now that was a bust!

It’s not even 120 hours out yet. We just don’t get the sort of great January busts they had in the good old days.

January sucks these days.

Pretty sure it started to crumble with most models like 4-5 days out.

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Matt mentioned similarities to 2011 earlier today.   I don't remember the lead up to that event at all.   I barely remember what happened last week.  

Models were showing 20+ inches in Seattle and a day before the pullback started and we got cold rain.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Is it really second best?

It usually scores 2nd right behind the EURO. GEM is 3rd and the GooFuS is 4th.

 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

If the 00Z Euro holds strong tonight, I won't be worried. But if it falls apart then I'll start to get nervous.

We lost the GFS, Euro, and either the UK or GEM for about two days with about a week to go for February 2019.

[MWG]

[Mid Valley Duck]

What a massive step back on the GEFS

[Mercurial]

Surely medium range models are more accurate now than in 2011.  

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

What a massive step back on the GEFS

Old news

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Matt mentioned similarities to 2011 earlier today.   I don't remember the lead up to that event at all.   I barely remember what happened last week.  

That was smart assery… kinda…

Depending on where it goes, this one will at least have had 36 hours or so of runs that went full latitude and full regional. I don’t think 1/11 ever did.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Surely medium range models are more accurate now than in 2011.  

They are not

[SouthHillFrosty]