January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Parrot said:

Ridge depletion has been the trend all day

Agreed.   

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Here are the most recent verification scores at day 6

Wow, I remember the UKMET being an absolute joke a couple years back during one of our big arctic flops.  It was showing -22 850's with blizzard conditions over the entire NW while the other models were cozied up under their sunlamps.  I thought it was a joke before that and more so ever since. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think it largely gets ignored because it doesn't have as many pretty maps on most sites, and it doesn't go out as far.

I’m not sure why Tropical Tidbits doesn’t have it. Especially since it has some of the lesser known models.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian ensemble is actually good tonight.  Colder than the last two runs by quite a bit.

[GHweatherChris]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEFS is often under-dispersed, though.

Da fuq does that mean.......?  You are doing exactly what Fred asked you not to do.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The Canadian ensemble is actually good tonight.  Colder than the last two runs by quite a bit.

It’s actually a bit west. Better for sure. 18z eps was a bit east. I think western WA is favored for sure. Especially if it stalls.

[Doinko]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Da fuq does that mean.......?  You are doing exactly what Fred asked you not to do.

I think he just means it has more of a tendency to waver with the operational and it has relatively few members

[MossMan]

With that low that exploded out of nowhere on the GFS the last two or so runs…I cannot tell you how many times we have seen that happen about this far out timing wise (in normal times) and I would get mildly excited for a possible windstorm…And then poof…GONE! And typically I would be sad for about 10 minutes or so. So it might just be the GFS doing stupid American computer shitt. 
Also…speaking of WIND! Power is now surging. 

[the_convergence_zone]

The flip in the GEFS is the real shock. I know it’s terribly under-dispersed, but going from 25 or 26 out of 30 members looking cold to maybe 10 out of 30 in the span of one run is pretty ominous. The Euro ensemble isn’t as much of a flip flopper so hopefully at least 2/3 of the members stay cold. 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

He was some kid who was a regular on here like 15+ years ago and eventually got banned, partially for being a legitimate a**, and partially because he just had a sense of humor that was well intentioned but conveyed very poorly over text and got misinterpreted. He mainly just attacked Phil though, which is probably why he frequently accuses people of being dabears, lol. After he got banned, he pretty much just lurked at times and maybe had a brief account or two since then, but never really came back to any significant degree. Every now and then though some random person that isn't dabears will get incorrectly accused of being him.

A couple times there's been some complete psychopaths that were falsely attributed to dabears, so this forum has built up kind of a wacky cartoon villain image of him based on their mistaken belief that some of the more extreme lunatics that have made the rounds through here were the same guy. Their writing style has always been completely different, but usually any time some unknown user is perceived as being rude on here, there's an assumption that it's another of dabears' accounts. Great lore, really. The Ghost of Dabears has always been my favorite campfire story.

Lol. Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know about crap that happened 10+ years ago?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

With that low that exploded out of nowhere on the GFS the last two or so runs…I cannot tell you how many times we have seen that happen about this far out timing wise (in normal times) and I would get mildly excited for a possible windstorm…And then poof…GONE! And typically I would be sad for about 10 minutes or so. So it might just be the GFS doing stupid American computer shitt. 
Also…speaking of WIND! Power is now surging. 

I was thinking the same. GFS is really good at overpreforming how deep a low gets.

[Randyc321]

30 minutes ago, iFred said:

We lost the GFS, Euro, and either the UK or GEM for about two days with about a week to go for February 2019.

We have lost all of them at least once each time it snows.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, Phil said:

Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know what happened 12+ years ago?

WHAT A PLOT TWIST!

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Phil said:

Lol. Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know about crap that happened 10+ years ago?

Long time lurker here!

[SnowySeeker50]

Cool meso-low moving in right now

[MossMan]

Just now, Phil said:

Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know what happened 12+ years ago?

I feel like this is Tim investigating Phil a decade or so ago about the Stampede Pass escapades! 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Long time lurker here!

You lurked as a guest without making an account for a decade, then joined and started posting snippy? Haha, alrighty then.

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know about crap that happened 10+ years ago?

*Dramatic violin sound effect*

[Minion]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know about crap that happened 10+ years ago?

So what your saying is.....

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, MossMan said:

I feel like this is Tim investigating Phil a decade or so ago about the Stampede Pass escapades! 

For the RECORD, dabears was absolutely the first one to raise questions about Phil's Stampede Pass mansion. He always saw through Phil's attention seeking behavior.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

We have lost all of them at least once each time it snows.  

Been a tradition since 2008! And I have had epic snowfalls every season starting with the 2017/18 up until last season. Everyone of those featured collapses in the models leading up to it. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Long time lurker here!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

For the RECORD, dabears was absolutely the first one to raise questions about Phil's Stampede Pass mansion. He always saw through Phil's attention seeking behavior.

Did he now.. Interesting.

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Did he now.. Interesting.

Yeah, I always admired him. He always seemed so intelligent and misunderstood. I bet he's really good looking, too. Wish he'd come back.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Where’s Link. Lets get everyone back in here 

I think he’s banned. I believe years ago my parents knew his parents somehow… 

[Minion]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah, I always admired him. He always seemed so intelligent and misunderstood. Wish he'd come back.

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah, I always admired him. He always seemed so intelligent and misunderstood. Wish he'd come back.

Lol.  You're not making a good case of not being the person.

[Randyc321]

22 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The fact the GFS was SOOOO bad, showing features that were never hinted or suggested previously, makes it easier to ignore.

Then again, outliers can turn into the first run of a major change.

GFS will need an entire day or two to see if a fly got in the ointment or if the model is surprisingly prophetic. 

 

[MWG]

Just now, MossMan said:

[High Desert Mat?]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Considering you joined in 2022 how do you know about crap that happened 10+ years ago?

Dome? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEFS cuts down on snow totals by 60%

[Randyc321]

22 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Where’s Link. Lets get everyone back in here 

I think they got mad and left.  Mad at the Wiz if I remember right.

[MossMan]

Everyone relaxed and sipping a martini while casually looking at the clock and seeing the king of the models beginning shortly? 

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Where’s Link. Lets get everyone back in here 

The shapeshifting interdimensional aliens finally caught up to him.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I think they got mad and left.  Mad at the Wiz if I remember right.

We need Mallow The Cloud and Anthony back in here! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ya ready?

[Cold Snap]

This is going to be a very crucial Euro run.

[MossMan]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Ya ready?

Let’s do this!!! 

[High Desert Mat?]

Dabears is Phil, Phil is Dabears?