1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Clinton]

12z CMC and GFS take the trowel way to my southeast. 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC and GFS take the trowel way to my southeast. 

Same here.  Detroit does well for Michigan peeps.  

[hawkstwelve]

Storm total comparison 12z vs 06z GFS...

[MIKEKC]

GFS AND CMC....TOO WARM! Yes it shows accumulating snow at 34-36 degrees...how??

A couple more runs and this will be a Oklahoma/Texas/Arkansas storm to a monster NE storm...those are the trends now.

Still have 5 days to go..

[winterfreak]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC and GFS take the trowel way to my southeast. 

It’s over smh. Can’t buy a snowstorm.

[hawkstwelve]

Definitely starting to look like E NE/Omaha area is being zeroed in on for the northern side of this system. At least for now.

Here's 12z vs 00z CMC through Tuesday evening...

 

[tStacsh]

For now, I'm out of it even. fairly big change. Plenty of time to go.  The trend seems weaker and east though.   

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z CMC storm total comparison...

[tStacsh]

12 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

GFS AND CMC....TOO WARM! Yes it shows accumulating snow at 34-36 degrees...how??

A couple more runs and this will be a Oklahoma/Texas/Arkansas storm to a monster NE storm...those are the trends now.

Still have 5 days to go..

App runner more likely.  You just can't trust models this far out.   Much ado about nothing.  I'm sure the cold and snowier storms in the longer range disappear as well.   On to the next one.  (trying a reverse jinx) 

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

For now, I'm out of it even. fairly big change. Plenty of time to go.  The trend seems weaker and east though.   

East, but not really weaker surface low except on the GFS.  GEM is still very very deep.

[Hoosier]

GFS is a little reminiscent of 2/24/2016, except that was an even more brutal miss for Chicago with barely anything there and a foot about 20 miles away.  RC at LOT probably had nightmares after seeing the GFS lol.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z GEFS storm total comparison...

[hawkstwelve]

12z CMC ensembles looked like a nice improvement over the 00z for this system...

[Clinton]

51 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z CMC ensembles looked like a nice improvement over the 00z for this system...

Well the ensembles of the GFS and CMC look better than the operational models.  That makes me feel a little but better.

[ATW]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Well the ensembles of the GFSand CMC look better than the operational models.  That makes me feel a little but better.

I’m hoping the models come back to what they were yesterday. I expect more shifts over the next day or two. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, ATW said:

I’m hoping the models come back to what they were yesterday. I expect more shifts over the next day or two. 

Still a good chance of that.  We'll know more by the weekend. 

[Tom]

I like the fact that the GEFS have been nearly steadfast in track placement through SE MO/S IL/S IN....last 15 runs..

 

[Hoosier]

Early, but I'm fairly sure the 12z Euro is going to be at least somewhat north of the GFS.

[Tony]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

I like the fact that the GEFS have been nearly steadfast in track placement through SE MO/S IL/S IN....last 15 runs..

 

Ensembles always a good way to go this far out with this storm. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro comparison along with 12z Euro vs 12z GFS comparison...

[hawkstwelve]

Here's the 12z vs 00z Euro snow total comparison for the northern portion of this system.

All models agree on this northward extension of the precip so I'd say it's a fairly decent bet of occurring. Now the question becomes where is it placed - somewhere between central NE and central IA. Probably won't have that nailed down until we are within 24-48 hours of the event starting.

 

[winterfreak]

Storm track is fine for here. Just no cold air. That’s not likely to change.

[Hoosier]

Any Chicago cliff jumpers can rejoice at the 12z Euro for now.  Might even come close enough to sniff some rain there.

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro storm total comparison...

[MIKEKC]

YEP...EURO hates KC too and many other places. Just too warm. The snow totals on the 12z that continue to shrink in amounts, can be cut in half de to snow falling with ground temps above freezing.  I can't find one area where it is snowing Monday night that is below 32 degrees. 

[bud2380]

Euro keeps trying to reel me back in. Im Most interested in that lead wave of precip that the Euro holds together all the way to the MS River whereas other models dry up in western or central Iowa. 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Feb 2002? I know my fam in Rockford just north of GR had 18" from a synoptic storm.

You might mean the so called Groundhog day storm of Feb 2011. That storm had 18" of snowfall and I am sure there was a NE wind. Not sure what the highest wind was. In Bay City during the January 1967, 1978 and March 1972 storms the NE wind reached up to 65MPH but remember Bay City is on the Saginaw Bay and a long open stretch  to the NE

[KTPmidMO]

55 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well the ensembles of the GFS and CMC look better than the operational models.  That makes me feel a little but better.

I agree with that! GFS way south but GEFS north. Models don't have a handle on this thing yet I don't believe.

[tStacsh]

For me, that was a dream run by the Euro.  On to the next runs!  

[Hoosier]

Noticed that Lake Michigan water temps have cooled slightly, especially near the shore.  Chicago shoreline and crib are both at 39 now after being above 40 recently.  Mid lake buoy is still 43 though.  In many situations that kind of water temp wouldn't be a huge concern at this time of year, but it's potentially more of a problem this time due to the background airmass being so marginal to begin with.  This will be something to drill into more once we nail down the expected precip amounts.  Not that it won't snow at the shore, because it should (barring a radical change in storm track), but it's more a question of how badly are accumulations impacted compared to farther inland.  

[hawkstwelve]

12z GraphCast looks to maintain the northern precip shield over Iowa area a bit better than it's 00z run.

[Hawkeye]

It's so nice to have access to the models again as this system approaches.  It's obvious there is still plenty of room for major changes.  The ICON now misses my area well to the southeast with the main low, but it also now lifts the initial inverted trough snow up here.

Five days out from the weekend New England storm, the Euro had heavy snow across the mid Atlantic and then out to sea, with nothing at all from NYC northward.  Three days later, all models have shifted the entire snow event NORTH of NYC.  That's how much it can change from day 5 to day 2.

[tStacsh]

Fairly strong wording, but with a note caution from GRR:

 

-- INCREASED CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL MID-WEEK WINTER STORM --     CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE A WINTER STORM EITHER   DIRECTLY IMPACTING OR IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT,   ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT, SHOULD   IT OCCUR, WOULD BE REMINISCENT OF OUR RECENT DECEMBER 22, 2022   BLIZZARD. THIS WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WELL OVER 6   INCHES, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH VERY STRONG   NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD PRODUCE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS   WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FAR FROM CERTAIN;   A SIGNIFICANT RAIN COMPONENT REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THIS COULD   SIGNIFICANTLY CURTAIL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.     WHILE WHAT'S DESCRIBED ABOVE IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT, I   STILL FEEL IT IS WORTH MENTIONING NOW AS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE   FOLLOWING REASONS:

    1) IT IS NOT TOO EARLY TO BE THINKING ABOUT CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR   POSSIBLE TRAVEL AND POWER DISRUPTIONS NEXT WEEK.    

2) THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT STARTING NEARLY   A WEEK AGO. THIS HAS CONSISTENTLY FEATURED A DEEP, STRONGLY PHASED   WESTERN U.S. TROUGH RESULTING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF   SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THESE HAVE A STRONG CLIMATOLOGICAL PROPENSITY TO   TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, OFTEN WHILE DEEPENING.    

3) PAST STORMS IN RECENT MEMORY EXHIBITING THIS PATTERN SHOWED   REMARKABLE PREDICTABILITY AND CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE LEADING   RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT. THIS PRESUMABLY HAS MUCH TO DO WITH INHERENT   PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS SUCH AS THE ONE   WE'RE DEALING WITH NOW.    

4) ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE ECWMF ENSEMBLE (ECE),   INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SURFACE LOW   TRACKS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECE MEAN MSLP HAS DROPPED TO 980   MB, WHICH WOULD IMPLY THAT SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS FEATURE   MINIMUM PRESSURES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY, WE   ARE NOW SEEING SHIFT OF TAILS (SOT) VALUES IN THE ECE APPROACHING 2   OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

 

THIS MEANS THAT THERE ARE   SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS BEHAVING AS EXTREME OUTLIERS   RELATIVE TO ECE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY. THIS ALSO EMPHASIZES STRONG   POSITIONAL SENSITIVITY TO THE FORECAST WHEN DEALING WITH WHAT COULD   BE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE.     WHILE IT'S EASY TO FOCUS ON WHAT SNOW OCCURS (WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY   COULD BE ESPECIALLY JARRING GIVEN THE WINTER THAT WE'VE HAD SO FAR),   WE ARE JUST AS CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THREAT THAT MAY MANIFEST ON   THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING, DEEPENING LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST   WILL CONTINUE TO SMEAR WIND SPEEDS DOWNWARD DUE TO AVERAGING OF   MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE COULD IN FACT   EXPERIENCE VERY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTS THAT MAY   IMPACT MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING   WEEK.

[uticasnow]

Grand Rapids getting serious:

-- Increased chances for impactful mid-week winter storm --

Confidence is growing that there will be a winter storm either
directly impacting or in the vicinity of Lower Michigan. In fact,
ensemble guidance has begun to converge on a solution that, should
it occur, would be reminiscent of our recent December 22, 2022
blizzard. This would mean widespread snow accumulations well over 6
inches, followed by lake effect snow along with very strong
northwest winds that could produce blizzard-like conditions
Wednesday morning. However, precipitation type is far from certain;
a significant rain component remains possible and this could
significantly curtail snow accumulations.

While what`s described above is far from certain at this point, I
still feel it is worth mentioning now as a possibility for the
following reasons:

1) It is not too early to be thinking about contingency plans for
possible travel and power disruptions next week.

2) There has been a signal for a major pattern shift starting nearly
a week ago. This has consistently featured a deep, strongly phased
western U.S. trough resulting in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of
southern Rockies. These have a strong climatological propensity to
track northeast towards the Ohio Valley, often while deepening.

3) Past storms in recent memory exhibiting this pattern showed
remarkable predictability and consistency in model guidance leading
right up to the event. This presumably has much to do with inherent
predictability associated with deep longwave troughs such as the one
we`re dealing with now.

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

While it`s easy to focus on what snow occurs (which undoubtedly
could be especially jarring given the winter that we`ve had so far),
we are just as concerned about the wind threat that may manifest on
the back side of the exiting, deepening low. The official forecast
will continue to smear wind speeds downward due to averaging of
model solutions, but it should be noted that we could in fact
experience very significant northwest winds and gusts that may
impact much of Lower Michigan sometime in the middle of the coming
week.

 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, uticasnow said:

Grand Rapids getting serious:

-- Increased chances for impactful mid-week winter storm --

Confidence is growing that there will be a winter storm either
directly impacting or in the vicinity of Lower Michigan. In fact,
ensemble guidance has begun to converge on a solution that, should
it occur, would be reminiscent of our recent December 22, 2022
blizzard. This would mean widespread snow accumulations well over 6
inches, followed by lake effect snow along with very strong
northwest winds that could produce blizzard-like conditions
Wednesday morning. However, precipitation type is far from certain;
a significant rain component remains possible and this could
significantly curtail snow accumulations.

While what`s described above is far from certain at this point, I
still feel it is worth mentioning now as a possibility for the
following reasons:

1) It is not too early to be thinking about contingency plans for
possible travel and power disruptions next week.

2) There has been a signal for a major pattern shift starting nearly
a week ago. This has consistently featured a deep, strongly phased
western U.S. trough resulting in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of
southern Rockies. These have a strong climatological propensity to
track northeast towards the Ohio Valley, often while deepening.

3) Past storms in recent memory exhibiting this pattern showed
remarkable predictability and consistency in model guidance leading
right up to the event. This presumably has much to do with inherent
predictability associated with deep longwave troughs such as the one
we`re dealing with now.

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

While it`s easy to focus on what snow occurs (which undoubtedly
could be especially jarring given the winter that we`ve had so far),
we are just as concerned about the wind threat that may manifest on
the back side of the exiting, deepening low. The official forecast
will continue to smear wind speeds downward due to averaging of
model solutions, but it should be noted that we could in fact
experience very significant northwest winds and gusts that may
impact much of Lower Michigan sometime in the middle of the coming
week.

 

I like your smaller font better lol

[uticasnow]

Didn't see the same post til I looked at mine!

[winterfreak]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

It's so nice to have access to the models again as this system approaches.  It's obvious there is still plenty of room for major changes.  The ICON now misses my area well to the southeast with the main low, but it also now lifts the initial inverted trough snow up here.

Five days out from the weekend New England storm, the Euro had heavy snow across the mid Atlantic and then out to sea, with nothing at all from NYC northward.  Three days later, all models have shifted the entire snow event NORTH of NYC.  That's how much can change from day 5 to day 2.

Looks like that storm may be turning dicey in the snow dept. for even Boston. Predictive computer weather models are certainly prone to wild swings as we all well know. Looking forward to the continued waffling in the guidance!

[Hoosier]

Obviously extremely unlikely, but there's an EPS member that gets down to 955 mb in northern lower MI.

[Hoosier]

Big bertha starting to appear at the end of the NAM.