winterfreak Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 What a huge disappointment . 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, winterfreak said: What a huge disappointment . I feel your disappointment winterfreak. Maybe we'll get in it next time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 38 minutes ago, winterfreak said: What a huge disappointment . I think we're screwed but the GFS held Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12 hours ago, Hoosier said: Would be curious to get LOT's take on it, but I think that front end snow could have like 1" per hour rates. Won't last super long though which will keep totals from getting too high. Thanks LOT Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 Monday night through Saturday... Key Messages: * Snow arrives Monday night. Roughly 6 hour window in which snow rates may briefly exceed 1 inch per hour exists, particularly along and south of I-80 with a likelihood for challenging AM commutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 18 minutes ago, Clinton said: I think we're screwed but the GFS held Not sure why but GEFS came south quite a bit with the southrn extent. Took me from 4.7" to 9.4." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 GEFS 06z vs 12z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, Clinton said: I think we're screwed but the GFS held Yeah, throw that out lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: GEFS 06z vs 12z This is turning into a nowcast situation with all the models being split. SIGH! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said: This is turning into a nowcast situation with all the models being split. SIGH! NWS Hastings mentioned in its forecast zone, that the southern counties will be tricky with thermal issues and where does the dry air punch into. I’m sure that will be the issue on the southern side of the storm as a whole. Good luck. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: This is turning into a nowcast situation with all the models being split. SIGH! We shouldn't expect anything less lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Models are not totally favorable for Cedar Rapids. The GDPS continues to track the main defo zone farther southeast and mostly misses us with it. Totals here are down on the 12z run. Likewise, the 12z UK is down as the best defo zone snow moves up through the Quad Cites. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 50 minutes ago, Clinton said: I think we're screwed but the GFS held We’re screwed by thermals alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, ATW said: We’re screwed by thermals alone. I know alot of people are dissapointed by this storm, but in all reality the thermal profiles and lack of cold air was known well before all the hoopla took place. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 27 minutes ago, Clinton said: We shouldn't expect anything less lol I’m very surprised that channel 13 in Jeff City is still forecasting 3-5 inches with a spread of 1-8 inches. NWS STL has Jeff City getting 1-2. Interesting. He didn’t say what he thought Columbia would get. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Clinton said: I think we're screwed but the GFS held I’m surprised a Met out of Jeff city says that’s still a possibility 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, uticasnow said: I know alot of people are dissapointed by this storm, but in all reality the thermal profiles and lack of cold air was known well before all the hoopla took place. I think the disappointment for some is the storm taking a decisive turn north late in the game. 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Just now, mlgamer said: I think the disappointment for some is the storm taking a decisive turn north late in the game. Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Actually it started trending north 4+ days ago from when we first started tracking the storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, uticasnow said: Actually it started trending north 4+ days ago from when we first started tracking the storm There was a general consensus of KS and MO being within the target zone for many days though there were questions about the thermals which I believe most folks were aware of. It has now trended mostly into NE and IA more or less since yesterday. I think that's how most KS and MO folks will look at it. Even local NWS offices issued watches that may not be needed. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Finally get to fire up the new snow blower it appears. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Lol: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12 Euro Kuchera 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 NBM upped totals by a good 1-3" across the Omaha area and vicinity compared to the post-00z and post-06z runs; now has the city set for close to 9". 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 15z SREF 10:1 ratio 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 At least the 12z Euro is bringing back some love for the Chicago folks and a few others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Just now, Tony said: At least the 12z Euro is bringing back some love for the Chicago folks and a few others. is The Euro trending southeast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, uticasnow said: is The Euro trending southeast? Just took a quick glance at it but yes slightly SE of the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, uticasnow said: I know alot of people are dissapointed by this storm, but in all reality the thermal profiles and lack of cold air was known well before all the hoopla took place. Very true. The main issue is when does the rain turn to snow and how long will it snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Tony said: At least the 12z Euro is bringing back some love for the Chicago folks and a few others. Compared to 00z Euro? Actually looks a bit worse in most of N IL except maybe immediate Chicago. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 The UK, GDPS, and Euro all ticked back southeast this morning. The heavier defo zone snow may miss me to the southeast. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 15z SREF 10:1 ratio looks like shifted south a little 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Compared to 00z Euro? Actually looks a bit worse in most of N IL except maybe immediate Chicago. Was actually talking about immediate city/downtown as there was a little improvement there. As far as movement it did trend SE from most of the other models today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Come on baby, clobber a little north of Madison for me. Wanna spend my day riding fresh real snow and the trees at Cascade. Considering how pathetic December was for snowboarding I'll be so grateful! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Detroit was hinting thisi morning that temps are trending a little cooler than previously forecast: A forecast trend from 24 hour ago has been for a slight delay precipitation onset. It is quite possible that snow will hold off until after the morning commute particularly north of M 59 and/or I 69 corridors. The other change has been for a slightly cooler atmosphere column by a degree or two Celsius. As a result, there is lower confidence on when precipitation will changeover to rain. Given the projected UVV response, more efficient wet bulb cooling could delay the changeover to rain by an hour or two. Thus, preference is to carry snow accumulations through noon for many areas particularly in the higher elevation of the Irish Hills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 It's more true here than anywhere else, but I know you all understand lol 6 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 Less than 24 hours to onset and I have some models giving me borderline warning snow and some giving me under an inch. Lovely! 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Stayed very steady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 I haven't used the RAP model much so I don't know how accurate it can be or what tendencies it has but dang, it drops 10 inches here through just 9AM tomorrow. That's with only the initial WAA band, not including the second round with the main system. That just can't be right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Hrrr is overdone as usual but nails Nebraska. especially west of Omaha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.