January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Tom]

Local GRID back home mentions some thunder....

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, absolutely terrible trends for Minnesota.

[Madtown]

Duluth's final take...id be estatic if this verifies

[Minny_Weather]

3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Duluth's final take...id be estatic if this verifies

I'd be ecstatic if the Minnesota side of the CWA got anything at this point. Model trends are horrible 

[shakjen]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

Local GRID back home mentions some thunder....

Weird looking storm on radar. Shapes like question mark. Going to be done snowing here soon if it doesn’t fill back in. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, shakjen said:

Weird looking storm on radar. Shapes like question mark. Going to be done snowing here soon if it doesn’t fill back in. 

The Lull was advertised on the models but that double barrel low might become an issue for you farther south...hope it fills in quicker for ya...

[Pros3lyte]

Bummer. Even with the pull east DTX refuses to issue a warning for the eastern counties. I feel like they will stretch as far as they can to not issue a warning. 
 

Going with a common 4-6 inches through most of the thumb. We’ll see how it pans out. Maybe they’re right!

[Tom]

I always enjoy reading Izzi's LOT discussion...

Quote

Early this morning we`re watching a "double barrel" low pressure
system, with one low over southern Missouri and a second over
western Arkansas. Both of these lows will move northeastward today
with the western AR low likely to become the dominant low as it
tracks north and northeast across Indiana today into lower
Michigan tonight. The southern Missouri low will more slowly lift
north into central or northern IL later today and likely devolve
into more of an inverted trough. Explosive deepening of this
cyclone is expected over the next 24 hours, much more reminiscent
of a coastal low/nor`easter, as the left exit region of 160kt jet
streak over the Tennessee Valley couples with the right entrance
region of jet streak over the Great Lakes resulting in extremely
strong upper level divergence and synoptic ascent. By later this
evening, the sfc low is progged to deepen 20-25mb and may even
threaten or outright break some stations record low MLSPs across
Indiana and Michigan.

 

[westMJim]

At 7:40 AM the temperature here in MBY is 31 with cloudy skies. The current snow depth here is 2.5". I have a snow board set up a yard stick for measuring the snowfall. I also have several snow  shovels some are OK while a couple are not that good. I have gas for the snowblower so I guess I am about as ready as I can get for what may or may not come.

[Jaycee_CHI]

5 hours ago, Naptownwx said:

Yeah this is what I’m worried about! It has it going to almost all rain at some point too

Either way, it’s pretty outside right now, and we did better than last storm already so I guess I can’t be too upset! Looking forward to getting some good pictures today  

[FV-Mike]

already at 4 inches. CHI into Wisconsin should do very well today

[jcwxguy]

8-10 IMBY 

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Yeah this is what I’m worried about! It has it going to almost all rain at some point too

Either way, it’s pretty outside right now, and we did better than last storm already so I guess I can’t be too upset! Looking forward to getting some good pictures today  

How much do you have so far?

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

already at 4 inches. CHI into Wisconsin should do very well today

That's a nice THUMP!

It looks like the areas across E IA/N MO are starting to fill in on radar...we should start seeing precip explode over the next few hours...buckle up!

[Andie]

Currently 29*  High:  May see a High  of 45
Wind. Gusty 25-45 mph

Low 29

Low tomorrow 20*.
Then Lows drop to 11*  as the front sinks south.

 

 

[Jaycee_CHI]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

How much do you have so far?

About 3-5” here too I’d say? I need to go back out and look I’m just being lazy we were under some heavier banding it looks like so I’d say it’s a safe bet.

i am worried about the warm air displayed on the HRRR. It looks like it’s one of the few doing it but if that’s true we’re going to maybe get an inch more and then have it become a sloppy mess like last storm. Realllyyyy hope the other models are right this time! 

[Bryan1117]

Looks like we picked up around 6” of snow overnight in Omaha and it’s still coming down at a good clip. Hard to get a decent measurement with the wind and it’s too cold to stay outside long haha.

Should pick up another 2-4” today to get us close to double digits.

[Bryan1117]

Have to love waking up to this sight on the back deck! The wind is drifting most of this up since the back of our house faces south, however it is still an amazing sight to see (especially with our recent luck with winter storms).

[Grizzcoat]

Absolutely puking snow here right now Radar just exploding Dallas Cty Iowa.

5"  thirty minutes ago. 

[beaugie]

Woke up to work calling me off, so that was nice since I drive a lot during the day. We got around 2-3" by 6am in South Central WI, looks like a break in the snow for a bit and then picking back up later. I'll be interested to see where we end up, going to have to rely on this storm filling out a bit or getting some heavy bands to get near the 10"+ a lot of models were saying. But any storm near 8" or so with this wind is disruptive enough. 

[Sciascia]

With the snow from Tuesday & Wednesday night still on the ground/deck (plus the wind), can’t really tell how much I’ve got here in Poplar Grove.

Disappointingly in the dry slot, currently.

[hawkstwelve]

Got put under a blizzard warning for tomorrow, in addition to my winter weather advisory for today and wind chill warning for the next few days.

We've received about 3 inches overnight. NWS mentioned in their morning AFD that dry air at the 800mb level and lower ratios than model guidance suggested (13:1-16:1 range vs 20:1) has led to lower totals than expected. Another 1 or 2 inches expected today. 

As for the blizzard warning tomorrow, we've been able to escape the winds all week but they'll be coming in with a vengeance tonight. Sustained around 30mph and gusts to 45mph. They're expecting ground blizzard conditions to develop but they also said, "Light snow will expand eastward through the day Saturday, with very cold soundings suggesting every cloud will produce some type of snow." I found that phrasing kind of interesting. They mention eastern SODAK and W MN might even get enough snow falling to create actual blizzard conditions too. With wind chills struggling to warm up above -30, it will be quite the winter day tomorrow.

[Hawkeye]

Maybe 1.5" here.  The model trend was correct, unfortunately.  Southern Iowa got hit hard overnight, with 5-6" totals from Omaha to Des Moines to Ottumwa to the Quad Cities, but the snow really crapped out as it headed north toward highway 30.  At this point I'm just hoping for 5" total.

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Maybe 1.5" here.  The model trend was correct, unfortunately.  Southern Iowa got hit hard overnight, with 5-6" totals from Omaha to Des Moines to the Quad Cities, but the snow really crapped out as it headed north toward highway 30.  At this point I'm just hoping for 5" total.

Eye balling looks like 1” here. North Liberty has a report of 4.5” and I don’t believe that for one second. 

[Hawkeye]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Eye balling looks like 1” here. North Liberty has a report of 4.5” and I don’t believe that for one second. 

I have three snow boards out.  Because snow tends to blow off my boards, I backstopped my main board by adding an incline around its south side, hoping that would help keep snow on the board a bit better.  The other two boards are just sitting on a flat area.  The main board has 1.7", the other boards have 1.0" and <0.5".

[East Dubzz]

Got a couple inches, but pretty clear the forecast is going to be a miss. 
 

current snowfall is almost like a sleet.

[bud2380]

Looks like 1.5” here now that I went and measured. Very disappointing so far. 6” seems like the high end unless rates are tremendous later. Radar continues to look poor here. 

[shakjen]

Changed to all rain. Probably going to be that way until the afternoon. So close again but right on that transition line like Tuesday's storm.

[Black Hole]

No snow this morning, but it's a chilly 19F and windy. The grass was frozen from the rain last night but roads were mostly good. 

[Bumblin Bman09]

Heading out to shovel/blow the snow now.  Looks like 4-5" with large flakes and wind.  Not a bad start.  

[East Dubzz]

Idk.. unless something changes, this is about to be a massive bust here.

[jzuzphreek]

Here in St. Joseph, MO, we only have about 1.5"-2" of new snow. It's still coming down, and it would make for great sledding since it's falling on top of the 3-4 inches remaining from Mon/Tues... if it wasn't so dang cold.

We're missing out on the big stuff a few miles north, but it's enough that with the roads wet from snow melt, and our temps already reaching their max over night (currently at 11°), the whole area, all the way down through KC, MO (where I work) are shut down. 

[FV-Mike]

Had 30 mins of sleet mix. I am back to all snow

[bud2380]

Radar just won’t fill in by my place. Keeps looking better to both the west and east. Like some models had predicted. Snow has picked up a little but it’s still just snowing lightly. 

[East Dubzz]

Looks like a strong band is about to move through. Hopefully it's more snowfall than whatever this sleet-ish stuff is right now. 

[Yerf]

We had a brief lull here but streets are back covered and bigger flakes falling. Measured 5.2

 

[East Dubzz]

7 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Looks like a strong band is about to move through. Hopefully it's more snowfall than whatever this sleet-ish stuff is right now. 

Okay, looks like it's an actual snowfall now. Starting to come down good. Still plenty of time left in this storm. Let's get it rolling. 

[MKEstorm]

Snow began around 4:00 time frame. Not sure exactly. Woke up about 4:45 and it was already snowing. Coming down pretty good now! Winds starting to pick up also!

[StupidFlanders]

Some solid snow overnight here near Oak Park. But here comes the rain band for a few hours. Sucks. Hopefully more heavy stuff this afternoon. 

[beaugie]

Snow went from smaller almost sleet like to nice big nickel size heavy snow here in Whitewater WI. Likely going to get 1"+ per hour with this band. Let's stay like this for a few hours at least. These are the snowfalls I miss.