January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

GFS making a move toward other models again.  The connection with the high latitude piece is stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Phishy Wx]

ICON is still pretty stiff

[awright-31]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Well hello there

What do the temps look like during this?

[Perturbed Member]

GEM

 

[SpaceRace22]

It's getting to that fun part of model riding now where we we get to screech over exact low tracks and actively root against each other now. One man's blizzard is another man's 38 degree rainstorm, after all.

 

[Front Ranger]

Another notch west for the GFS.

[Phil]

00z GFS vs 18z ECMWF. They’ve nearly locked arms.

GFS still a tad east but just barely.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ICON Day 5.5 850s Seattle -22c, The Dalles -25c, Moses Lake -27c

[Requiem]

That Wednesday low is good for a dumping of wet snow somewhere along I-5 but for the valley it's those weekend storms that catch my attention. Real shades of 2/6/2014 with some of them.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z running, here we go!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Tuesday low will probably have about a long beach landing it this rate. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm wondering of the extra data they dumped into the GFS made it go bonkers for a few runs.  Just can't figure it out.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm wondering of the extra data they dumped into the GFS made it go bonkers for a few runs.  Just can't figure it out.

I think it's the other way around. It started going bonkers before it had the extra data, and now that there's more being injected, it's coming back to reality.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (4-run trend)

A real jump on this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Day 3.5 (4-run trend)

[Tanis Leach]

Rod Hill's latest forecast. (Forgive me if it's been posted)

 

Discuss.

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Rod Hill's latest forecast. (Forgive me if it's been posted)

 

Discuss.

He should be arrested and charged to the fullest extent of the law with reckless endangerment. Manslaughter after Friday. edit: actually, first degree murder. He knows what he's doing.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Ellsworb]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

It's getting to that fun part of model riding now where we we get to screech over exact low tracks and actively root against each other now. One man's blizzard is another man's 38 degree rainstorm, after all.

 

This is why I'm here!

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Rod Hill's latest forecast. (Forgive me if it's been posted)

 

Discuss.

Where is the big drop?

[Gradient Keeper]

Damaging east winds on the ICON

[snow_wizard]

I've noticed the ICON and the GFS are both a tad slower with the cold invasion.  Might bode well for more snow.

[Parrot]

Got off I-5 at 196th in Lynnwood and there appeared to be some snow on the ground

[Phishy Wx]

Record low for Spokane for Friday 1/12 is -7

 

dang, this does have a chance at breaking that.  ok, I'm now more invested I think

[SpaceRace22]

Well . This just rapidly became the worst GFS run of the day. Cold gets hung up at the border and slides east, never even makes it.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Well . This just rapidly became the worst GFS run of the day. Cold gets hung up at the border and slides east, never even makes it.

Arctic front reaches Seattle overnight Thursday with snow... But otherwise it's another off run. Might be onto something with the weakening ridge tho

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

That Wednesday low is good for a dumping of wet snow somewhere along I-5 but for the valley it's those weekend storms that catch my attention. Real shades of 2/6/2014 with some of them.

I think we will probably end up in a pretty nice spot. Very cold with a frigid east wind with systems trying to push in from the south. Being on that boundary between the cold and the moisture to the SW with the gorge doing its thing, pretty nice place to be and about as good as we can do here to get a shot at some real widespread snow. 

[Front Ranger]

Oof. No bueno.

[Requiem]

Bad bad bad bad bad 

[OysterPrintout]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

GEM

 

warm tongue emoji needed

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Trend north 32.23 miles!

We need that right over Olympia 

[Phil]

GFS be stubborn af.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 5 nope not on board yet

[OysterPrintout]

GFS going for a 250 mile ice storm

[Weiner Warrior]

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

Now show the 850mb temps. I'll wait.

[Doinko]

GEM isn't great south of Washington. Looks snowy for Seattle though

[Phil]

CMC a tad further east too but not even remotely as egregious as the GFS. Different planets.

[Weiner Warrior]

Oof