January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, ajreich said:

Huh? The GEFS went a lot farther towards the cold solutions in the last 3 days than other models warmed up. The GEFS went from a Sunday temp of 40+ in PDX 48 hours ago to a Sunday temp in the 20s last night. Euro went from low 20s to mid 20s in the same timeframe!

GFS killed it days ago, and honestly its pretty much dead across the board, so...  nothing to really write home about when all is said and done.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

You have to look a few days prior. Just as the GOA block we're seeing mature now is preceding the cold intrusion later this week. Loading pattern.

I didn’t mean to stumble into the middle of a Philatiron p*ssing match. Just was commenting on that specific map at face value.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You have to look a few days prior. Just as the GOA block we're seeing mature now is preceding the cold intrusion later this week. Loading pattern.

Another view on the blocking pattern on Pacific side leading up to the event in Dec 1968. Far cry from what we're seeing now.

[snow maniac]

Positive splats here, and all snow on Hood canal and out to Matlock.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wrong, bruh look at reanalysis again. GOA block was always mediocre in 1968.

This was at peak intensity…

[Phil]

This years progression is shockingly similar to that of 1968.

[van city]

Good morning from Beatiful Snowy Vancouver and as I promised Tim Hortons. 

[ajreich]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

GFS killed it days ago, and honestly its pretty much dead across the board, so...  nothing to really write home about when all is said and done.

So….you don’t want to have an evidence-informed discussion?

[Cloud]

26 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Well Tim, will my flight be canceled?

Yes. Only if your aircraft is a Max-9. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Another view on the blocking pattern on Pacific side leading up to the event in Dec 1968. Far cry from what we're seeing now.

That is mediocre. Stop messing with the colors dude.

Here’s the period of interest. Animated by day.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You have to look a few days prior. Just as the GOA block we're seeing mature now is preceding the cold intrusion later this week. Loading pattern.

It’s just his typical hard on for all things me…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, van city said:

Good morning from Beatiful Snowy Vancouver and as I promised Tim Hortons. 

Where is that? Nothing but some slushy flakes that melt as they hit the ground near 33rd and Knight. Now mixing with rain.

[sherwoodor]

I see we've entered the "squabbling" phase of grief... 

[van city]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Where is that? Nothing but some slushy flakes that melt as they hit the ground near 33rd and Knight. Now mixing with rain.

SFU 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Positive splats here, and all snow on Hood canal and out to Matlock.

is it sticking on hood canal, just a mix here at home when i left.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, ajreich said:

So….you don’t want to have an evidence-informed discussion?

No reason to, nothing fun is on the way, is what it is.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s just his typical hard on for all things me…

Is this the part where I make an empty offer about meeting you somewhere?

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is this the part where I make an empty offer about meeting you somewhere?

You wanna???

[Weiner Warrior]

The fights always start right before the EURO comes out. Weird

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm always learning and i will NEVER discount the gfs again. It is one of the worlds most powerful model and we were laughing at it like a atari computer. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, van city said:

SFU 

Oh, well that figures! Nothing like an extra 250 m of elevation to boost the snow chances!

[Phil]

The 500mb anomaly associated with the GOA this week reaches roughly +330dm at peak. That is actually a greater anomaly than that of Dec 1968.

It’s all about subtleties in the evolution of the blocking. 1968 evolved more favorably in Siberia/Eurasia and the western arctic, and timing of the inception of -NAO was more favorable.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, van city said:

Good morning from Beatiful Snowy Vancouver and as I promised Tim Hortons. 

Congrats, SCORE! A preview for what’s gonna happen down here.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yes. Only if your aircraft is a Max-9. 

That would be clutch. Thanks Boeing. Maybe I’ll get an up close view of the snow falling from the clouds. Then I can pretend I’m a snowflake when I get sucked out and drift to earth

[umadbro]

It is kinda crazy how people just take the gfs as gospel. Pretty comical actuall

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm all in on the GFS... EURO caves this run and Seattle gets 16 inches fresh powder. 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is mediocre. Stop messing with the colors dude.

Here’s the period of interest. Animated by day.

I didn't "mess with the colors". You're clearly not going to be reasonable in this discussion, so I'm done trying.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm always learning and i will NEVER discount the gfs again. It is one of the worlds most powerful model and we were laughing at it like a atari computer. 

i still think its details are bollocks, but I think we  can agree that if the GFS isnt showing a blast for us it isnt going to happen. Rule #1 the craziest model should be showing the craziest stuff!! 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, ajreich said:

So….you don’t want to have an evidence-informed discussion?

I see you've met Chris.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I didn't "mess with the colors". You're clearly not going to be reasonable in this discussion, so I'm done trying.

Look at the anomalies associated with the current block versus the one in 1968. This year’s block is stronger, ironically.

There’s a lot more going on here than the strength of GOA block, if you’re looking for why 1968 evolved differently.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here we go. Let’s go King EURO!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

i still think its details are bollocks, but I think we  can agree that if the GFS isnt showing a blast for us it isnt going to happen. Rule #1 the craziest model should be showing the craziest stuff!! 

You may not be wrong. For sure want to have the big 3 at least all in good agreement 4-6 days out.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here we go. Let’s go King EURO!

Watch it go back to 2 days ago.  RMAOFL.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF snow for Tuesday night system.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

really looking like there will be a bunch of 30 degree snow somewhere between Portland and the border.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Look at the anomalies associated with the current block versus the one in 1968. This year’s block is stronger, ironically.

There’s a lot more going on here than the strength of GOA block, if you’re looking for why 1968 evolved differently.

We don't know yet Phil, we just don't know.

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, van city said:

Good morning from Beatiful Snowy Vancouver and as I promised Tim Hortons. 

Nice!

[Mid Valley Duck]

Tuesday night's system. 2-4" central Willamette Valley. Weak low coming in around Newport/Waldport

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i still think its details are bollocks, but I think we  can agree that if the GFS isnt showing a blast for us it isnt going to happen. Rule #1 the craziest model should be showing the craziest stuff!! 

It’s also not like the gfs didn’t move in agreement with the other models at the same time though. But the gfs does deserve a bit of credit here. 

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We don't know yet Phil, we just don't know.

True! It ain’t over till it’s over.