January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A wobble? Yesterday’s 18z had it near the northern part of Vancouver island at the same time.

Just a big wobble.

[Kayla]

We've got ourselves a good'ol fashioned OR and WA forum showdown!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Someone may have posted already but a WWA up for pdx tonight. Sitting at 350’ west hills area, curious to see how this first shot plays out  

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 500 FEET... 

* WHAT...Snow expected above 500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 

* WHERE...Greater Portland Metro Area. 

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is mainly expected to impact higher elevations such as the West Hills. Slushy slow will be possible down to the valley floor, but little or no accumulation is expected below 500 feet.

I’m sitting right at 500 feet. Hoping to get a few inches.

[BlvuSumit]

Check out the GFS forecast temp gradient 

 

[Requiem]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

are strong ninos the same as 'garden variety' ninos in these regards?  I do not know in this region, still learning

ENSO and climatology goes way over my head-- that being said we've had recent "super Niños" that have ended up much wetter for the NW than CA-- and weak Niños that slam southern areas disproportionately 

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

GFS isn't trending south. Looks like a wobble to me. Consistently in the same 20-25 miles landing range. 

It wobbled me from 19 inches to 26!  Pure fantasy.  

[Parrot]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

The Spire gives WA a good dumping on the past two runs.

And the WRF..., this solution is lumping ALL the bad models XD

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Not sure if this was already posted but the 12z GraphCast continues to look...the same?

SW WA/NW OR is on the northern edge. 

 

We’re in a good spot. The moisture lifts north on Saturday. It’s looking more likely we might not have to deal with much ice in PDX.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Check out the GFS forecast temp gradient 

 

Shows arctic air actually making it to Portland at the surface. An improvement over the 12z GFS.

[Mid Valley Duck]

4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Of course its going to be an outlier relative to a different model!

We'll see who is right 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

27 and 44 +4 cans of beer is a Astoria Landing. Looking good.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

yeah but at this time short term models are more reliable for tonight.  GFS more for pattern recognition and its right on that, no?

Short term models are probably more reliable for either at this point than Goofy.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

We've got ourselves a good'ol fashioned OR and WA forum showdown!

Washington posters are in the denial stage but the acceptance stage will start soon. 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The only other model showing what the GFS shows is the NAVGEM. And there’s a reason why it’s never mentioned. It’s not that good of a model.

 

Washington members look at this and have hope the GFS is right.  And Oregon posters will look at this and say “nope, no way the NAVGEM beats the Euro.  

[Weiner Warrior]

Next EURO run will show 35 degree rain for OR....

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

We've got ourselves a good'ol fashioned OR and WA forum showdown!

Nice thing is, there's so many ways for people to score with this, it may end up being the elusive...

REGIONAL EVENT

[van city]

So much drooling over phantom snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Washington posters are in the denial stage but the acceptance stage will start soon. 

Naa it's all for fun, I will take the colder with less snow solution any day.  Good chance there will be more chances with the colder euro.

[Cold Snap]

I’m thinking we may not know where that storm this weekend is going to go because it seems like the track is based on how far south the arctic air makes it. Not sure if that’s what’s affecting the track of the storm though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice thing is, there's so many ways for people to score with this, it may end up being the elusive...

REGIONAL EVENT

That would require it to make it to the south Willamette Valley which is still fairly unlikely.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Washington posters are in the denial stage but the acceptance stage will start soon. 

I have no doubt at all that Portland is going to get way more snow than Seattle and especially points north.  

[Requiem]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That would require it to make it to the south Willamette Valley which is still fairly unlikely.

I think we'll get some ice this weekend. No snow, sadly, but Euro shows ZR followed by a pretty significant flash freeze type event.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z RGEM for Friday afternoon/evening. Some healthy precipitation rates in there.

 

 

 

 

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

ENSO and climatology goes way over my head-- that being said we've had recent "super Niños" that have ended up much wetter for the NW than CA-- and weak Niños that slam southern areas disproportionately 

Yeah there has been no el nino or stj for for the southern west coast so far this winter. The jet stream has been from the Pnw up into Alaska. We have had one coastal cut off low and a couple inside sliders. This year is top 5 dry everywhere in the state outside of the cut off low landfall location. 

That's why I haven't discredited the Gfs solution yet as it evaporates the Sat storm before it makes it to California which would be a continuation of this winter so far. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That would require it to make it to the south Willamette Valley which is still fairly unlikely.

Is that where the regional line is? I thought it was Roseburg.

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Washington members look at this and have hope the GFS is right.  And Oregon posters will look at this and say “nope, no way the NAVGEM beats the Euro.  

Either way Portland gets buried.

[GHweatherChris]

It's gonna trend just north enough, I would take the more snow over intense cold any day!

[Mid Valley Duck]

Let's check in on how the 12z models are doing with MSL at day 4

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

18z RGEM for Friday afternoon/evening. Some healthy precipitation rates in there.

 

 

 

 

That is very close to a Astoria landing

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That's why I haven't discredited the Gfs solution yet as it evaporates the Sat storm before it makes it to California which would be a continuation of this winter so far. 

18z is an improvement over 12z, though.

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, van city said:

So much drooling over phantom snow. 

Yup. Will be shutting the place down and redirecting to the Canadian forum where the moderation there can put the clamp down.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That is very close to a Astoria landing

Snow makes its way close to Puget Sound. I can see the moisture making further north than modeled.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 RGEM snow/ice totals up to Friday 10pm.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice thing is, there's so many ways for people to score with this, it may end up being the elusive...

REGIONAL EVENT

The more the Jet Suppression we have, the more chances many people can score since the cold air will last longer.

[Front Ranger]

18z is a notch colder overall with the air mass most places days 4-5. Seems like another baby step towards Euro, etc to me, even though it still bring in the system way more north.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New 7 day. Saturday went from Snow/Ice possible to likely and Sunday/Monday are colder. Chances are increasing for a winter storm in PDX.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

27 and 44 +4 cans of beer is a Astoria Landing. Looking good.

Then have it move SE through Central OR to pull cold air in behind it.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

34 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

More evidence to show it's outlierish solution

I dunno, that little cluster around the northern OR coast…methinks whoever called between Astoria and Long Beach earlier might be onto something  

[Snowlova]

I think a part 3 to this forum topic tomorrow or tonight will be fitting to complete imo what will be one of the most legendary arctic blast forum discussions ever, as a trilogy

[North_County]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah yeah!!!!

If that snow was actually falling and not drying out, that looks like bonefide white-out conditions IMBY with such a tight Fraser gradient. I'm eye-balling that as well past -20.