January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Mid Valley Duck]

From Mark Nelsen. The part I bolded caught my eye.
 

Quick midday Wednesday update for you, I'll have a full blog post somewhere between 7-9pm this evening...

1) We're in this showers and sunbreaks routine through Thursday. Nothing really eventful except tons more snow in Cascades

2) Weather models now in very good agreement a tremendous blast of cold air pushes through Gorge and out into metro area on Friday. But do we freeze up at noon? Or not until after dark? Too early to know, but we DO know metro area will be frozen AT THE LATEST from Friday evening through MLK Day (Monday). Whatever falls from the sky (weatherwise) will be on the ground all weekend.

3) BUT...disagreement on whether we get moisture for snow on Friday and Saturday or does it stay mainly south of us? Models trending farther south and drier (but not all!) with the precipitation. So...we don't yet know if we're into a full snow/ice storm later Friday or just flurries that day and dry Saturday. Regardless...

4) Time to think about how you'll handle Friday if we wake up and temps are already dropping with snow beginning. That would be the best case scenario because most of us would just stay home and schools would cancel. Of course worst case is if we're well above freezing Friday and many head to work, only to get stuck on snowy/icy roads 2nd part of day.

Luckily we have another day to nail down details, but I'm confident you DO need to cover faucets, wrap exposed pipes, drain outdoor water lines etc. Prepare for 15-20 degree temps in metro area this weekend with east wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range Friday night and Saturday morning. This image shows one of the "driest" models keeping snow and ice from Salem southward; at this point I think that's unlikely, although I wouldn't complain...

MORE TO COME THIS EVENING...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d like to see those mid week systems next week suppress or the ridge to build over us for some inverted fun. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Btw- getting an arctic blast during a super Nino is not a rug pull. 

One of the best in decades as well. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

From Mark Nelsen. The part I bolded caught my eye.
 

Quick midday Wednesday update for you, I'll have a full blog post somewhere between 7-9pm this evening...

1) We're in this showers and sunbreaks routine through Thursday. Nothing really eventful except tons more snow in Cascades

2) Weather models now in very good agreement a tremendous blast of cold air pushes through Gorge and out into metro area on Friday. But do we freeze up at noon? Or not until after dark? Too early to know, but we DO know metro area will be frozen AT THE LATEST from Friday evening through MLK Day (Monday). Whatever falls from the sky (weatherwise) will be on the ground all weekend.

3) BUT...disagreement on whether we get moisture for snow on Friday and Saturday or does it stay mainly south of us? Models trending farther south and drier (but not all!) with the precipitation. So...we don't yet know if we're into a full snow/ice storm later Friday or just flurries that day and dry Saturday. Regardless...

4) Time to think about how you'll handle Friday if we wake up and temps are already dropping with snow beginning. That would be the best case scenario because most of us would just stay home and schools would cancel. Of course worst case is if we're well above freezing Friday and many head to work, only to get stuck on snowy/icy roads 2nd part of day.

Luckily we have another day to nail down details, but I'm confident you DO need to cover faucets, wrap exposed pipes, drain outdoor water lines etc. Prepare for 15-20 degree temps in metro area this weekend with east wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range Friday night and Saturday morning. This image shows one of the "driest" models keeping snow and ice from Salem southward; at this point I think that's unlikely, although I wouldn't complain...

MORE TO COME THIS EVENING...

“Although I wouldn’t complain” What a boob.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark is on board for a blast. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark is on board for a blast. 

Well... that is pretty obvious.   Its a given at this point.  

[GHweatherChris]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Could you remind me, what do the 925’s need to be for snow to hit the surface? Zero? 

I find it seems to be location centric- for out here if it is about -1 then precip will generally be snow under the right precip conditions, last night I had rain snow mix and it wasn't even down to 0, so.....

[Requiem]

I am on board for a you geen winter storm 

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

From Mark Nelsen. The part I bolded caught my eye.
 

Quick midday Wednesday update for you, I'll have a full blog post somewhere between 7-9pm this evening...

1) We're in this showers and sunbreaks routine through Thursday. Nothing really eventful except tons more snow in Cascades

2) Weather models now in very good agreement a tremendous blast of cold air pushes through Gorge and out into metro area on Friday. But do we freeze up at noon? Or not until after dark? Too early to know, but we DO know metro area will be frozen AT THE LATEST from Friday evening through MLK Day (Monday). Whatever falls from the sky (weatherwise) will be on the ground all weekend.

3) BUT...disagreement on whether we get moisture for snow on Friday and Saturday or does it stay mainly south of us? Models trending farther south and drier (but not all!) with the precipitation. So...we don't yet know if we're into a full snow/ice storm later Friday or just flurries that day and dry Saturday. Regardless...

4) Time to think about how you'll handle Friday if we wake up and temps are already dropping with snow beginning. That would be the best case scenario because most of us would just stay home and schools would cancel. Of course worst case is if we're well above freezing Friday and many head to work, only to get stuck on snowy/icy roads 2nd part of day.

Luckily we have another day to nail down details, but I'm confident you DO need to cover faucets, wrap exposed pipes, drain outdoor water lines etc. Prepare for 15-20 degree temps in metro area this weekend with east wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range Friday night and Saturday morning. This image shows one of the "driest" models keeping snow and ice from Salem southward; at this point I think that's unlikely, although I wouldn't complain...

MORE TO COME THIS EVENING...

Feel bad for meteorologists right now. They have about 24 hours to make a forecast because people will be planning around it. If models still look like this tomorrow, yikes. My feeling is they’ll all lean toward the euro.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Btw- getting an arctic blast during a super Nino is not a rug pull. 

Models showed 40 inches of snow on multiple models. I know that wasn't realistic but not even getting an inch is a serious rug pull. I was expecting at least a wide spread 2-3 inches based off the lead up.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Models showed 40 inches of snow on multiple models. I know that wasn't realistic but not even getting an inch is a serious rug pull. I was expecting at least a wide spread 2-3 inches based off the lead up.

We will just have to see what tomorrow brings us. 

[AlTahoe]

Early stages of this storm have been giving us brief whiteout conditions so far. Supposed to keep deteriorating into the evening. 

Big avalanche off of the Kt-22 chair with 3 people missing. Palisades shut down for the time being. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I do remember some dude called bozworth or something like that and i guess he was an idiot lol. Seahawks i think? 

I am going to assume you prefer conservative media... this story is on the front page of Fox News right now.   Even if you had no interest at all you can't help but see his name in Seattle for the last decade and a half.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am going to assume you prefer conservative media... this story is on the front page of Fox News right now.   Even if you had no interest at all you can't help but see his name in Seattle for the last decade and a half.  

I try not to watch the news much man, It just so negative. 

[quackattack]

49 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Jimmy Lake is available. Ty Willingham too!

How about DeBoer to Seahawks and Harbaugh to Chargers? The B1G gets a bit easier with those guys out of the picture.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Early stages of this storm have been giving us brief whiteout conditions so far. Supposed to keep deteriorating into the evening. 

Big avalanche off of the Kt-22 chair with 3 people missing. Palisades shut down for the time being. 

That's terrifying. Inbounds is where you're supposed to be able to control you own fate (to some extent). Hope it turns out they're all right.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I try not to watch the news much man, It just so negative. 

Totally agree with you there!   Although I do maintain an online subscription to the Seattle Times to keep up local issues and happenings.    I completely avoid local news on TV though.   And all the garbage on the national cable news channels.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I do remember my wife saying that name now. She was a football wizard, i swear she knew more than most men do about the sport. 

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

That's terrifying. Inbounds is where you're supposed to be able to control you own fate (to some extent). Hope it turns out they're all right.

3 buried and found/dug out. apparently one was very lucky to be alive

 

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2024/01/10/inbounds-avalanche-burials-palisades-tahoe/

[the_convergence_zone]

I sure hope the UW-WRF is right because if you believe the 18Z HRRR this is going to be a widespread shutout. 

The ECMWF is now one of the higher snowfall forecasts for my location, with me being in the 0.1-0.5 inch contour. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

I sure hope the UW-WRF is right because if you believe the 18Z HRRR this is going to be a widespread shutout. 

The HRRR is notoriously sheepish on frontal precipitation.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I sure hope the UW-WRF is right because if you believe the 18Z HRRR this is going to be a widespread shutout. 

Hrrr is only good about 2 hours out.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I do remember my wife saying that name now. She was a football wizard, i swear she knew more than most men do about the sport. 

My wife never watches football.  The last game she actually watched was the Super Bowl in 2015 and that was mostly for the commercials.   But I just texted her the news and she responded with "Wow!!"  Just by osmosis living in the same house with me and our two sons she accidentally knows lots of things about the Seahawks.   

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I sure hope the UW-WRF is right because if you believe the 18Z HRRR this is going to be a widespread shutout. 

The ECMWF is now one of the higher snowfall forecasts for my location, with me being in the 0.1-0.5 inch contour. 

The HRRR heavily relies on the current radar to run forward and predict where moisture will be. It's really only useful out to about 4-6 hours in my experience.

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Btw- getting an arctic blast during a super Nino is not a rug pull. 

This is correct.

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Early stages of this storm have been giving us brief whiteout conditions so far. Supposed to keep deteriorating into the evening. 

Big avalanche off of the Kt-22 chair with 3 people missing. Palisades shut down for the time being. 

Oof. Awesome that you're getting a lot of snow obviously, but the avalanche part isn't exactly what I want to hear right before going there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife never watches football.  The last game she actually watched was the Super Bowl in 2015 and that was mostly for the commercials.   But I just texted her the news and she responded with "Wow!!"  Just by osmosis living in the same house with me and our two sons she accidentally knows lots of things about the Seahawks.   

My wife had Duck season tickets for 17 years. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Portland will be the center of precip. Looks like nam is further north with the energy out in the ocean.

[TacomaWx]

Been light rain here at highway 18 for awhile but some snow mixing in now. Can see it’s all snow on the hills nearby. Kind of fun to see where the snow cutoff line is. 

[Prairiedog]

22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have no idea really. 

His name is mentioned quite a few more times than the GFS or EURO is mentioned in the Bible.  I  Prefer not to see Jim H come here.  Might as well bring in Urban Meyers out from "retirement".  Jim would be better of the two, though.  I'm a Mariner fan so I don't care as much.   It is probably time for Pete to step down. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM is great for the valley. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Second one might come in a little further north. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Been light rain here at highway 18 for awhile but some snow mixing in now. Can see it’s all snow on the hills nearby. Kind of fun to see where the snow cutoff line is. 

Interesting... still totally dry on this side of the ridge.   Based on the radar loop it looks like there is a little upslope happening on the south side of the Issaquah Alps and then fading as it tries to lift north.  

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I sure hope the UW-WRF is right because if you believe the 18Z HRRR this is going to be a widespread shutout. 

The ECMWF is now one of the higher snowfall forecasts for my location, with me being in the 0.1-0.5 inch contour. 

The latest 3km NAM seems to show some sort of CZ band briefly moving through Seattle, or at least eastern parts.

 

[MossMan]

How’s that SSW looking? We might still have a great February as well! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yep nam is much further north with the second low.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

The latest 3km NAM seems to show some sort of CZ band briefly moving through Seattle, or at least eastern parts.

 

ECMWF has been showing the same thing on every run.   In the same position actually.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting... still totally dry on this side of the ridge.   Based on the radar loop it looks like there is a little upslope happening on the south side of the Issaquah Alps and then fading as it tries to lift north.  

Sun is shining at the same time but yeah chilly up here today. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep nam is much further north with the second low.

Definitely... almost to Portland.   North of the ECMWF now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 2nd low is way further north on the NAM, but the precip barely makes it to PDX.