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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, MillCreekMike said:

NAM is very underwhelming for the Puget Sound with the arctic front. Note that it said I would get nothing with the 12/2021 arctic front 8 hours before the event started when I got 5”, and that I would get 10” with a snowstorm last winter the night before and I got 2”.

I don't remember the models being dry for the December 2021 event... but maybe forgetting something.   That one seemed like it was going to be wet going into it because of more over water trajectory and a low off the coasts spinning in copious moisture.   We were in Hawaii for the lead up to that event and I remember telling my family we might not be able to get into the driveway when we get back because the models looked so wet.   And that actually happened.   We had to park down the road and hike in.   My sons were wearing flip flops and shorts at the time despite many warnings that would not be pleasant.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

🤣

Screenshot2024-01-10at18_26_09.png.70d283824762989e58ffedbb993060b8.pngScreenshot2024-01-10at18_26_50.png.df4b212c9229bb8196975815673aed8a.png

Its true.   I don't think more of a southward shift is in the cards and there is probably an top end on the northward trend but that part is more unclear.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

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Can't really see from the picture but it's nuking here right now. Nice to get hit tonight before the Arctic front arrives here tomorrow night. Looks like the NWS is going with 3-5" in Bozeman with the front tomorrow night. Currently 18F.

Screenshot 2024-01-10 at 7.30.32 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I think we may have locked on-- NAM looks fairly similar if not slightly more north 

Every run of multiple models are different on every run. How can we be locked? 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Did the 18Z Euro shift north or not?

Yes... and I made the northward extent post after the 18Z run.  

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MikeInEverett Mentor

MikeInEverett

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't remember the models being dry for the December 2021 event... but maybe forgetting something.   That one seemed like it was going to be wet going into it because of more over water trajectory and a low off the coasts spinning in copious moisture.   We were in Hawaii for the lead up to that event and I remember telling my family we might not be able to get into the driveway when we get back because the models looked so wet.   And that actually happened.   We had to park down the road and hike in.   My sons were wearing flip flops and shorts at the time despite many warnings that would not be pleasant.  😀

This was the 00z NAM the night the snow started. North King and South Snohomish county are white. This made me lose so much trust in the NAM 😂

C9CC8D58-AC48-440A-8E88-80DCA26724C2.thumb.jpeg.b28003aa7b411ddb061d2983693d834e.jpeg

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Every run of multiple models are different on every run. How can we be locked? 

Well the 00Z NAM is really close to the ECMWF so that helps..

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OysterPrintout Experienced

OysterPrintout

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57 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Meanwhile, seven years ago RIGHT NOW things were just about ready to POP OFF.

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_201701110300_1256_149.png

My favorite winter day since moving here in 2006. Thundersnow downtown, spent the night snowboarding down Market St. in between helping stuck cars and getting hot drinks to some stranded folks on the 26 right above us. 

IMAG0572.jpg

IMAG0556.jpg

IMAG0553.jpg

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Every run of multiple models are different on every run. How can we be locked? 

Low landfall location on most models but the GFS haven't been too drastically different in the past few runs 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Was the NAM crazy cold before?  Because this run is way warmer at the 850mb level by Saturday morning.   I honestly don't know.  

nam-218-all-nw-t850_c_dprog-5158000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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icyasf Collaborator

icyasf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

First system on the NAM, it looks like another may be approaching

 

snku_024h-imp.us_nw.png

Lock it in!!! Would be nice if Eugene could also get in on some action so it could be valley wide, but at least we will all potentially see some sub freezing highs.

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Snowlova Community Regular

Snowlova

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

This was the 00z NAM the night the snow started. North King and South Snohomish county are white. This made me lose so much trust in the NAM 😂

C9CC8D58-AC48-440A-8E88-80DCA26724C2.thumb.jpeg.b28003aa7b411ddb061d2983693d834e.jpeg

Yea. That map had my location in central King county for 1'', got 5'' in the end

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

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Posted
9 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

NAM is very underwhelming for the Puget Sound with the arctic front. Note that it said I would get nothing with the 12/2021 arctic front 8 hours before the event started when I got 5”, and that I would get 10” with a snowstorm last winter the night before and I got 2”.

Some of the local news stations and the UW Dawgcast seem pretty bullish on someone getting up to 2” of snow where some of those snow bands stall.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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MikeInEverett Mentor

MikeInEverett

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Posted

On the 12z NAM the northern-most extension of the precip shield was in Salem. On the 00z NAM the northern-most extension is Centralia.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

On the 12z NAM the northern-most extension of the precip shield was in Salem. On the 00z NAM the northern-most extension is Centralia.

Could just be models coming into agreement... its just about exactly the same as the ECMWF now.    

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted
Just now, Doinko said:

A lot snowier though

Fwiw the 18z had more moisture overall (and more further north)

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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4 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

On the 12z NAM the northern-most extension of the precip shield was in Salem. On the 00z NAM the northern-most extension is Centralia.

Still a few days to go to get that shield up to Bellingham! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted
4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

A little warmer than last run

1705158000-92LI71ZSaH0.png

The 850mb temp on Saturday morning over Seattle on the 12Z run was -17C and on the 00Z run its -8C.    Crazy big change there but maybe not at the surface.  

nam-218-all-nw-t850-5158000.png

nam-218-all-nw-t850-5158000 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

A lot snowier though

00Z NAM vs ECMWF.    NAM is definitely snowier for Portland.  

nam-218-all-nw-snow_48hr-5233600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-snow_48hr-5233600.png

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 850mb temp on Saturday morning over Seattle on the 12Z run was -17C and on the 00Z run its -8C.    Crazy big change there but maybe not at the surface.  

nam-218-all-nw-t850-5158000.png

nam-218-all-nw-t850-5158000 (1).png

It’s over. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted
Just now, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

Actually that is the trend you want to see if you want lots of snow! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted
1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am starting to thing precip is going to be plentifully well up into Washington Saturday, not just cuz I am hoping (obviously am) but ya, just a feeling.

Have to say I am starting to get that sense as well.  

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

NAM

Yep... 18Z NAM was just stupid.    00Z NAM agrees with ECMWF now at 850mb level as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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