January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GEM is a bit better for PDX than the 12z

[Meatyorologist]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if this was discussed... but this really does attempt to offset June 2021.    The peak of that heat wave was a +24.6 at SEA and today was -22.     We will see how it shakes out the next 2 days but it will be in the ballpark.  

That is not a statement about my opinion or preferences... just numbers.   I loved today and was outside quite a bit.   I hated the June 2021 heat wave with every fiber of my being.   Those are also just facts.   Nature loves to throw extreme weather at us so we roll with the punches.  But if I had to pick... this extreme weather is about 10,000 times more enjoyable than the extreme weather in June 2021.   

Standard deviations matter here. Today is pretty obviously not nearly as anomalous as June 2021 from a historical perspective.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Down to 22 here.

[North_County]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I bottomed at 4

4° with snow? Frontrunner for westside winter winner.

[GHweatherChris]

And we lost the GEM, lamelamelame, gained the lame back I took away earlier.  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Still look to be in good shape. St. Helens up to Longview area have been building some steam all day. At this point it’s just wait and see who gets nailed with a heavy band or two for the extra goods  

Yeah, soon it might just be time for observations.

East winds haven't really ramped up here yet, but it's still very cold. 24 right now

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX back down to 25 as of the 7:53pm reading. Just six degrees to go in four hours. Can they do it? (probably not)

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

4° with snow? Frontrunner for westside winter winner.

I'm sending a small patch of clouds right over his house tonight to secure the win.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Just now, Doinko said:

Yeah, soon it might just be time for observations.

East winds haven't really ramped up here yet, but it's still very cold. 24 right now

Winds started picking up last 10 mins or so here, they’re coming, down to 21

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM is a bit better for PDX than the 12z

 

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

More precipitation to work with compared to the 12z.

 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS showing more ice on wednesday

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone have a GFS sleet and ZR map?

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX back down to 25 as of the 7:53pm reading. Just six degrees to go in four hours. Can they do it? (probably not)

I'm thinking 21-22 is where they'll land at midnight.

[ajreich]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

More precipitation to work with compared to the 12z.

 

Looking at the raw QPF it’s easy to see how we end up with a big surprise tomorrow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I'm at 10.9.  The race is on.

10.4˚F here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I'm thinking 21-22 is where they'll land at midnight.

Would still be good for their coldest high temp in over 33 years.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, North_County said:

4° with snow? Frontrunner for westside winter winner.

Yup. 5” fell yesterday. Compacted to about 3 now. Squeaky powder snow

[OysterPrintout]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Standard deviations matter here. Today is pretty obviously not nearly as anomalous as June 2021 from a historical perspective.

Yeah we were like equal to the LAS VEGAS ALL TIME HIGH. Tomorrow is like an annual cold but regular a** winter day for much of the intermountain/midwest region.

[Weiner Warrior]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would still be good for their coldest high temp in over 33 years.

Leave us something to work on next winter. 

[Cold Snap]

Just checked Nyberg’s post from the other day and every single different kind of react besides the angry react has been used on it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Ice may still end up the real story. 

Edited January 13 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I may still end up the real story. 

Looks pretty bad in many places

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

And we lost the GEM, lamelamelame, gained the lame back I took away earlier.  

Shouldn't have woven the GEM on a rug for Ronaldo to steal. 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

More precipitation to work with compared to the 12z.

 

Nice to see for sure. The Canadian models are the most bullish with precip. Euro, ICON and 3km NAM all show 0.70 in and GFS is 0.60. 

I don't think we'll have any issues with insufficient precip, just need to keep the mid levels cool enough and keep a nice liquid to snow ratio and we should see nice results. 

So far the only model putting out truly disaster soundings is the NAM, hopefully it is wrong.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

00z GFS shows an overrunning event next Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Sleet to start for PDX.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Shouldn't have woven the GEM on a rug for Ronaldo to steal. 

He said you gave it to him when he was in backyard a couple days ago..... sabotage!!

[GHweatherChris]

Back to hoping for a celebration of Deformation Saturday!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Leave us something to work on next winter. 

Probably will be a long time before we have another legitimate shot at a high in the teens. But who knows! Now that January’s BACK all bets are off.

Edited January 13 by Cascadia_Wx

[RaleighHillsRunner]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Nice to see for sure. The Canadian models are the most bullish with precip. Euro, ICON and 3km NAM all show 0.70 in and GFS is 0.60. 

I don't think we'll have any issues with insufficient precip, just need to keep the mid levels cool enough and keep a nice liquid to snow ratio and we should see nice results. 

So far the only model putting out truly disaster soundings is the NAM, hopefully it is wrong.

 

Never did like the NAM  

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Just checked Nyberg’s post from the other day and every single different kind of react besides the angry react has been used on it.

It was so ridiculous it didn’t deserve that reaction 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking like a good shot of snow coming Tuesday night for the sound.

[Slushy Inch]

For western WA snow please verify 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looking like a good shot of snow coming Tuesday night for the sound.

It’s still low confidence!

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is the 00Z HRRR. I want to remind everyone, this is a general representation of what the radar will look like not what actually will happen. I've learned that a long time ago. Someone will get a good amount of snow but we won't know until it actually happens. I think the models are over doing the freezing rain and sleet. I think those areas could see snow but we'll see if I'm right. 

Temperature is down to 21° degrees with a dewpoint of 13° degrees. Crown Point is at 13° degrees with a windchill of -10° degrees

The next 24 hours are going to be very exciting 🌨

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

For western WA snow please verify 

Looks like both the GFS and GEM are showing an ice storm next week for SEA and PDX. It was inevitable with such a frigid Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

For western WA snow please verify 

It’s time. The north is due.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The CFS is all in on a Nina.  The ECMWF shows a sharp drop coming, but not as extreme as the CFS.  The last time I looked at the subsurface profile it was the dead opposite of one year ago.

I know what the models are showing. They’re next to useless.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

For western WA snow please verify 

I’d be very ok with this. Would make for a more memorable and regionally well rounded event. Just hope the ice wouldn’t be too crippling down here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z ICON also showing moisture arrive Tuesday afternoon with below freezing temperatures west of the Cascades.