January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It doesn't go to where we get the cold backwash behind the low on this run.  ZR seems kind of marginal, but who knows.

That is what I was saying... it shows tons of freezing rain but with temps of 32 or 33 which wouldn't cause many issues.

[snow_wizard]

If the bond to that high latitude block could trend just a little bit stronger the middle of next week it could be a huge deal.  I've seen stranger things happen.

[Deweydog]

Deformation absolutely plastering Ridgefield. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Unfortunately that is a famous track for a low of that strength,  but the trend has been to push it south and its almost in a good spot already and we have time still.

I want this to trend south so you guys up there can get some snow too.

[ajreich]

Models nailed that deformation band setup. Looks like north of Vancouver is the sweet spot. Not expecting much here other than some showers hopefully. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

But if does end up going far enough south a crazy  snow event is in play.

Yep.  And we have seen that on some runs and some of the ensemble members. 

[MikeInEverett]

This view makes not getting much in terms of snow hurt a little less..

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Deformation absolutely plastering Ridgefield. 

IMG_2587.mov

Very impressive!

[Snowdome]

Looks like we’ll stay sleet here in Oregon City. Coming up on 12 hours of nonstop sleet. Wild day! 

[NWbyNW]

The mountains were out in full force today and gorgeous. The snow is amazing. I love how they seem hidden until they have snow on them, then they just POP! It's so amazing! Have a great weekend everyone!

 

[Requiem]

Still ZR here

[SnarkyGoblin]

16 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Wow, there’s still going to be a strong Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin. If that low tracks south into Oregon. We could see a big overrunning event.

Impossible for an overrunning event to happen after the definite warm up coming the next couple of days.

Right @TT-SEA 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Still ZR here

Take pics

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking a lot of places are going to end up with their coldest January day in over 50 years with this event.  Yuge deal!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Snowdome said:

Looks like we’ll stay sleet here in Oregon City. Coming up on 12 hours of nonstop sleet. Wild day! 

That is incredibly rare.  Sleet is the hardest precip to achieve.  To do so for that long is amazing.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New 18Z ECMWF shows lots of freezing on Tuesday night... but I don't think the surface temps represent something that would be damaging.   

First map is highs on Tuesday... then temps at 9 p.m.... then freezing rain map.  

Mark is going with an ice storm down here Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. With all the sleet here it’s going to melt slower compared to snow and then you add ice on top of that. It’s going to be a long thawing out process especially East Metro.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One way to look at this, most of our big cold waves end with snow or produce 1 decent snow for Puget sound.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Impossible for an overrunning event to happen after the definite warm up coming the next couple of days.

Right @TT-SEA 

 

Little different down there near the gorge than it is in Seattle.   Right Snarky??    I have said about 200 positive things today about the potential on Wednesday.   Do you just want to ignore all model data that does not show exactly what you want?   Not everyone wants that.     So maybe ignore the stuff that you don't like because maybe someone else does?   

[Perturbed Member]

Precip been very light for a bit now. Just a bit too far south to get in on that deformation. Latest HRRR says this might be it for here besides some less steady lighter precip. Radar not looking terribly impressive to the south. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

One way to look at this, most of our big cold waves end with snow or produce 1 decent snow for Puget sound.

Even more true in January.  There are exceptions of course.

[SpaceRace22]

Just about to 4" now. 5" if I cheat and measure on the grass.

[iFred]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Little different down there near the gorge than it is in Seattle.   Right Snarky??    I have said about 200 positive things today about the potential on Wednesday.   Do you just want to ignore all model data that does not show exactly what you want?   Not everyone wants that.     So maybe ignore the stuff that you don't like because maybe someone else does.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is incredibly rare.  Sleet is the hardest precip to achieve.  To do so for that long is amazing.

We had an entire night and morning of sleet here in my area last December right before the ice storm.  

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking a lot of places are going to end up with their coldest January day in over 50 years with this event.  Yuge deal!

NOAA station closest to my house is 18/12 for today so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Power starting to flicker. Roads are hideous. 

 

Edited January 14 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We had an entire night and morning of sleet here in my area last December right before the ice storm.  

We had a decent amount here too.  The best I've seen for sleet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lows could drop before midnight but so far 21/16 at PDX, 23/18 at SLE. 
 

26/19 here.

Edited January 14 by SilverFallsAndrew

[OysterPrintout]

Deformation band north southern push too far east feelsbadman 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

 

And the funny part is that if we get a massive snowstorm on Wednesday... its still going to be around 40 on Tuesday.   

The temp on Tuesday makes a major ice storm unlikely.   It means literally nothing regarding a snowstorm on Wednesday because if the low goes south it will pull down NEW cold air!    And that very well could happen.

People are acting like the warm up on Tuesday means I am saying its done.   All it means is an ice storm is unlikely.  A snowstorm is still very possible.  

[snow_wizard]

I think SEA will have a -24 departure today after their -23 yesterday.  Top drawer cold wave.

The -33 in Bellingham yesterday was totally off the charts for the Western Lowlands.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We had a decent amount here too.  The best I've seen for sleet.

I had snow and then some zr, no sleet. I have only had sleet once here. 

[The Cats Meow]

This will not be a memorable event for me.

Statistics aside, most people in Western Washington just want some snow in their back yard.

0 degrees, 23 degrees, -45 degrees........whatever

Did we get any snow?  No?

Okay, next.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Little different down there near the gorge than it is in Seattle.   Right Snarky??    I have said about 200 positive things today about the potential on Wednesday.   Do you just want to ignore all model data that does not show exactly what you want?   Not everyone wants that.     So maybe ignore the stuff that you don't like because maybe someone else does?   

Can we please not look at that map again, it’s making me nauseous. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lows could drop before midnight but so far 21/16 at PDX, 23/18 at SLE. 
 

26/19 here.

I did 20/13 today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For sure... track will be key.  

I, for one, an a very big fan of the track that L is taking.

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Deformation band north southern push too far east feelsbadman 

Yeah, that's gap in the precip right over the center of the metro area is ridiculous lol. Cruel. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7.2/27.1 for the day here.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, The Cats Meow said:

This will not be a memorable event for me.

Statistics aside, most people in Western Washington just want some snow in their back yard.

0 degrees, 23 degrees, -45 degrees........whatever

Did we get any snow?  No?

Okay, next.

Sadly that is the way some people feel.  For me this cold is quite memorable because we had strong winds today too.  Very impressive.

For some reason warm ENSO cold waves often favor PDX over SEA for snowfall.  Jan 1930 is a very famous example of that.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Can we please not look at that map again, it’s making me nauseous. 

But even the massive snowy runs for your area still look like that on Tuesday.

A snowstorm on Wednesday is not dependent on preserving this cold air mass.   Although Portland definitely will preserve it until then.    A snowstorm for us on Wednesday is possible with that set up even if it was 50 degrees right now!   It brings in new cold air.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

7.2/27.1 for the day here.

Another cold one.

Temp is already back below 20 here.