January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Less than 5 days out, -35 in western MT and -44 in southern BC.

Sooo close.

Euro had a -54 near Banff. Don't think '98 ever got that cold.

[Meatyorologist]

This is the perfect setup to snowshadow my house smfh. Without any cyclogenesis that WNW flow will be killer.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Someone will get a Bunch, it is painful to say this but i have a strong feeling this will end up a north of Everett event.

Man, the one area that unequivocally doesn't deserve this...

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, the snow corridor is getting narrower with what is looking more and more like a purely low level advection event at best. Still have probably another 24 hours or so before that outcome is confirmed.

Looks like the 18z GFS doesn't even want to give us low level CAA. PDX stays in the 40s mostly with the valley further south approaching 50. Gets into the mid 30s briefly in PDX and that's it. Pretty amazing how hard this fell apart. 

[RayRay]

All I need is for the system to be a little bit further south.

20+ inches of snow would devastate the area

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Looks like the 18z GFS doesn't even want to give us low level CAA. PDX stays in the 40s mostly with the valley further south approaching 50. Gets into the mid 30s briefly in PDX and that's it. Pretty amazing how hard this fell apart. 

Really hoping something like the GEM, Graphcast, or UKMET happens

[Meatyorologist]

Another really sad thing about that SW flow D5-7 is that it prevents a potential reload around D8-10. Pacific and -NAO get their shizz together, but there's too much westerly momentum south of 60°N over western NA

[MikeInEverett]

Although some will still score from this, this will likely be the biggest bust since ??

Unless things turn around for those in OR, this is probably bigger than Jan 2020, so maybe since Jan 2011?

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Looks like the 18z GFS doesn't even want to give us low level CAA. PDX stays in the 40s mostly with the valley further south approaching 50. Gets into the mid 30s briefly in PDX and that's it. Pretty amazing how hard this fell apart. 

Definitely possible, if not becoming somewhat likely. Next day or so is the window for improvement given that we know that within 48 hours there is always a bit of a mitigation since no model can handle terrain perfectly. Need at least some house money to play with. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Looks like the 18z GFS doesn't even want to give us low level CAA. PDX stays in the 40s mostly with the valley further south approaching 50. Gets into the mid 30s briefly in PDX and that's it. Pretty amazing how hard this fell apart. 

 

-26F to not getting below freezing.

The life of a GFS cycle....

[Groundhog]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hope you get rain.

Love ya to, Fred. Currently moderate snow in parts of the Fraser Valley. That may tick off some folks south of the 49th, but that’s the current weather.
No worries: there will be a time (again) where you get your heavy snowfall while we’re left with tumbleweeds and a dry, screaming outflow. As it is, sometimes Chilliwack and Hope get over a foot of snow while 25ish miles west to where I am we get rain or ice. 

[Requiem]

Well, let's hope for better 00z runs I suppose. Maybe we'll finally see that fated compromise solution-- the Euro and GEM solution was good.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, van city said:

Just track south a few miles! 

[OysterPrintout]

Euro has been losing so much during this it has to be due for nailing some surface details right

[Meatyorologist]

shrug and move onto the 00z, ig

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Well, let's hope for better 00z runs I suppose. Maybe we'll finally see that fated compromise solution-- the Euro and GEM solution was good.

You will see a compromise. GEM and EURO will compromise to this 18z run.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Another really sad thing about that SW flow D5-7 is that it prevents a potential reload around D8-10. Pacific and -NAO get their shizz together, but there's too much westerly momentum south of 60°N over western NA

Hoping the GFS is doing GFS things. I have a feeling the models will meet in the middle. Though I am not liking how the ICON shifted north a ton in one run.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

Euro has been losing so much during this it has to be due for nailing some surface details right

If the ECMWF is still too aggressive with the cold air then it won't have the surface details right yet.   But once the upper level situation is locked in then the ECMWF will be by far the best tool for the surface details.

[Doinko]

Does anyone have that chart of snow maps from each individual ensemble member?

[Deweydog]

FWIW, MLK Day does look breezy and chilly.

[van city]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Hoping the GFS is doing GFS things. I have a feeling the models will meet in the middle. Though I am not liking how the ICON shifted north a ton in one run.

Already evident with RGEM 

[Phishy Wx]

usually safe to err on the side of warmer vs colder

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Man, the one area that unequivocally doesn't deserve this...

It has nothing to do with deserve. 

[Meatyorologist]

Absolutely bonkers how the 504dm 1000-500mb thickness line passes into WA and Seattle might not even get outflow.

[MossMan]

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It has nothing to do with deserve. 

[Cold Snap]

Just now, MossMan said:

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

I have a good feeling you will do good with this.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

Randy. Come on, we all know 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

At this rate it will be all rain south of Squamish BC 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

Seen this movie many times before.   Pic of Randy on the plow incoming! 

[LowerGarfield]

37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!!!!!!!!!!

Seattle's official station will now move from KSEA to Snoqualmie Pass, WA in an effort to get more accurate readings.

[Meatyorologist]

Point. Point!! hahaha SnowWillarrive meant to say 'point' but he just typed out RAIN instead because his mind was a few words ahead of his fingers.

EVERYONE POINT AND LAUGH

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

You post this like it’s not gonna be you.

[LowerGarfield]

35 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

the GFS run basically gives me snow nonstop or 2.5 days. If this storm verifies, I will have no right to complain for the rest of the season. I think I'm due after last year's dud in my location.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

FWIW, MLK Day does look breezy and chilly.

You should have relinquished your claim on "white MLK day". 

Many lessons to be learned from this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seen this movie many times before.   Pic of Randy on the plow incoming! 

It will be a snow to rain event and maybe back to snow. I'd guess the battle line will be between Seattle and Everett. Just based on past events. Who knows for here, if we get outflow it gets trapped over here really good so we should get buried. I really feel that around Bellingham could be insane with wind and snow.

[LowerGarfield]

27 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Orange for me if it verifies.

At hour 240 an ice storm is just west of me...nervously waiting for the next frame.

[TT-SEA]

Cold air is hanging on here... actually a little colder than this morning since the light snow is sticking a little to the driveway and patio now.   There has been very light snow falling all day.  ECMWF shows 925mb temps should be above 0C right now and will jump up to +6C this evening.    But the actual process is always slower than models show.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If I still lived in Seattle, I wouldn't complain about this.

[LowerGarfield]

@Phishy Wx what do you think of the 18z so far for us east siders?