January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[KingstonWX]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not impossible. 

No, not at all. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on it, but it wouldn't be the first or the last time. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Getting a sense there might not be much of a low at all.  

The euro shows a low, since when don't you follow the euro lol. ? The gfs is on its own. 

[MossMan]

Wednesday is going to be good…I can smell it

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The euro shows a low, since when don't you follow the euro lol. ? The gfs is on its own. 

Tim does not want ice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at this GFS run, I see nothing to scour out much of the WV and PDX metro. None of these lows even get near the coast. Obviously most places away from the gorge will moderate fairly quickly, but it looks like there could be some kind of surface inversion. Mark Nelsen has a 50 degree high Wednesday... Not so sure. 

Edited January 15 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cascadia_Wx]

Rooster Rock state park, Wahkeenah, Multnomah, Oneonta and Horsetail.

The amount of ice on the edge of the Columbia at Rooster Rock was the most I’ve ever seen personally. The falls and their creeks were choked with ice as well. Temps were around 15 out there this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

The problem on the GEM is that the trough just doesn't dig after the hand off.   No way to push cold air aloft south.

Pretty ugly in terms of freezing rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The problem on the GEM is that the trough just doesn't dig after the hand off.   No way to push cold air aloft south.

Pretty ugly in terms of freezing rain.

That's going to be really rough for Eugene if it verifies. I talked to Tiger this afternoon and he said he had no power or heat.

[Winterdog]

18.6 now.  These cold readings are becoming so commonplace.  It will be weird talking about temps in the 40’s and 50’s.

[Kayla]

12 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

00z gfs shows 18 inches of snow Wed/Thurs in the Flathead with minimal downsloping... nice.  

Actually, starting to look like a crush job Montana-wide

Eh, pretty heavily favoring Western Montana. Not much out this way but I'm happy for you guys!

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's going to be really rough for Eugene if it verifies. I talked to Tiger this afternoon and he said he had no power or heat.

Check out Troutdale. Almost a inch of freezing rain. That and the combination of winds would be devastating

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM brings low into Vancouver Island... rain for everyone.     And WB is having issues tonight.   Not loading for long stretches.

what do you mean by 'everyone'?

[MikeInEverett]

Don’t have a very good feeling about Tuesday/Wednesday. Feel like we’re grasping for straws at this point and it would take a miracle for us to get a decent snow out of this, and even then it would be sloppy and melt away pretty quickly anyways. Also no thanks to freezing rain. Maybe we can get a lucky Hail Mary.

Down to 24 here

[Kayla]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rooster Rock state park, Wahkeenah, Multnomah, Oneonta and Horsetail.

The amount of ice on the edge of the Columbia at Rooster Rock was the most I’ve ever seen personally. The falls and their creeks were choked with ice as well. Temps were around 15 out there this afternoon.

Gorgeous. What a day for some good forest bathing!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what do you mean by 'everyone'?

Sorry... always referring to west side and that is confusing enough!

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, MikeInEverett said:

Don’t have a very good feeling about Tuesday/Wednesday. Feel like we’re grasping for straws at this point and it would take a miracle for us to get a decent snow out of this, and even then it would be sloppy and melt away pretty quickly anyways. Also no thanks to freezing rain. Maybe we can get a lucky Hail Mary.

Down to 24 here

Unfortunately that is probably a reasonable take. 

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's going to be really rough for Eugene if it verifies. I talked to Tiger this afternoon and he said he had no power or heat.

No backup heat source I’m guessing?  Not a great situation.  

[Olive1010]

What is going on?

[TT-SEA]

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

Bad news for ZR. 

In other news the ridge up at Silver Falls has mixed out. At their high for the day of 28. Down to 22 here. We've been bouncing between 20-23 all evening. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty weird the models show the upper Midwest and NE torching hard again in week two while we only get somewhat warm.  We are getting quite lucky with this strong Nino.  In fact the December warmth will be completely offset a bit later in the week.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

That Canadian high sure gets close again.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty weird the models show the upper Midwest and NE torching hard again in week two while we only get somewhat warm.  We are getting quite lucky with this strong Nino.  In fact the December warmth will completely offset a bit later in the week.

Had a 19/13 day here yesterday. What was your coldest day for the event?

Edited January 15 by Cascadia_Wx

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking PDX might stay a lot chillier late in the week than currently thought.  That offshore flow just keeps going.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

#25! Book it

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Had a 19/13 day here yesterday. What was your coldest day for the event?

20/13.  Very close to the same!

[Doinko]

Really amazing winter day today. Solid snow cover with a decent depth and low 20s all day. 25/15 today after 20/14 with the 20 being a midnight high. Luckily we never lost power once in the past two days.

[GobBluth]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking PDX might stay a lot chillier late in the week than currently thought.  That offshore flow just keeps going.

If the first low can't moderate the Columbia Basin cold pool the second low approaching Thursday will just renew the surface chill.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

20/13.  Very close to the same!

Staying below 20 for 36 hours here really stuck out to me.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking the big cold wave trended slightly colder and deeper in the home stretch.  If the same thing happens with this one the graph cast may be right.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Really amazing winter day today. Solid snow cover with a decent depth and low 20s all day. 25/15 today after 20/14 with the 20 being a midnight high. Luckily we never lost power once in the past two days.

Things worked out very well for your area it seems.  Excellent coverage of very cold temps for the Western Lowlands down to Salem or so.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Staying below 20 for 36 hours here really stuck out to me.

We're running 76 or 77 hours below freezing now.  Some nice stats with this.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rooster Rock state park, Wahkeenah, Multnomah, Oneonta and Horsetail.

The amount of ice on the edge of the Columbia at Rooster Rock was the most I’ve ever seen personally. The falls and their creeks were choked with ice as well. Temps were around 15 out there this afternoon.

Horsetail gets the best ice formations, because it is the most exposed to the outflow.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Good company there!

[MossMan]

Temp is Stuck at 18.8. 

[Deweydog]

Hermiston is radiating like a boss tonight.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Jesus. You got that warm? Not quite an arctic blast when you’re in the 30’s. 

Oh brother.

The previous two days were a lot colder.

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Where does it have the low placement?

The only graphics I have found on that model are 500mb.

[the_convergence_zone]

28 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

What is going on?

Looks like whatever model that is has some serious issues. Shameful.