January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[RentonHill]

A brisk 2 degrees going over snoqualmie pass this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

A brisk 2 degrees going over snoqualmie pass this morning. 

27 in North Bend this morning... but assuming that 2 degrees is not a good sign down here in terms of freezing rain when there is an east wind.

[TT-SEA]

Huge model differences for an event starting tomorrow.    ECMWF/EPS/control run keep the low intact long enough to bring a decent south wind up through Sound and mix out everywhere from Eugene to Bellingham on Wednesday.  GFS shows the low falling apart before moving inland with no south wind and keeps temps in the 30s in Seattle northward until Friday... that still doesn't produce snow in the Seattle area because upper levels are too warm but probably delays thawing from the freezing rain and also brings ridiculous amounts of snow to SW BC.   

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

27 in North Bend this morning... but assuming that 2 degrees is not a good sign down here in terms of freezing rain when there is an east wind.

Ya it was fun to watch the temp spike from 17 in issaquah to 28 at your exit to 2 at the pass. Winds were crazy going past the truck stop so I assume downsloping was the cause…

[RentonHill]

-8 at suncadia…wow

[snow_wizard]

The wind kind of ruined my low temperature here last night.  Looks like a midnight low of 24.  Still far from warm I guess.  Seeing a couple of single digits and some 10 to 13 type mins this morning in places that had no wind.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

-8 at suncadia…wow

Lauderdale which is the junction of 970 and 97 has had -11, -10, and -9 the last three days.  That is flat out impressive.

I wish they had a sensor in Liberty.  That place is perfect geographically for some really low readings on clear nights.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Lauderdale which is the junction of 970 and 97 has had -11, -10, and -9 the last three days.  That is flat out impressive.

I wish they had a sensor in Liberty.  That place is perfect geographically for some really low readings on clear nights.

If I was heading up to twisp I would have given you a reading as I drove by liberty but we are heading to Moses this morning 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the wind kept PDX out of the teens as well. Looks like SLE made it down to at least 19. We bottomed out at 16, currently 18. 

[Andstorm]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge model differences for an event starting tomorrow.    ECMWF/EPS/control run keep the low intact long enough to bring a decent south wind up through Sound and mix out everywhere from Eugene to Bellingham on Wednesday.  GFS shows the low falling apart before moving inland with no south wind and keeps temps in the 30s in Seattle northward until Friday... that still doesn't produce snow in the Seattle area because upper levels are too warm but probably delays thawing from the freezing rain and also brings ridiculous amounts of snow to SW BC.   

GFS scenario feels unlikely but worth following. For Portland area this would be a nightmare. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I would take some effing freezing rain at this point, what a horrible effing mess and waste of a cold airmass here.  Ya ya, the stat mongers are happy, I get that, but visually you can't see the cold....  LAME!!

 

You can see your breath?

 

In all seriousness though I'm with you, it sucks to have this kind of cold and have bare ground.  I love the stats, but I love snow more!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

You can see your breath?

 

In all seriousness though I'm with you, it sucks to have this kind of cold and have bare ground.  I love the stats, but I love snow more!

What about the cold with hard packed sleet/ZR? Asking for a friend. 

[umadbro]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

The NAM is never too quick to scour out the cold unless it has the storm track/strength of precip rates entirely wrong. CAD is the one thing it excels at relative to other guidance.

You’re right. I would have no knowledge of what happens in this area. I’ve never seen it before. You on the other hand. Know better than I. Apologies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CPC has now increased the odds of a Nina to 65% by early fall. 

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

You can see your breath?

 

In all seriousness though I'm with you, it sucks to have this kind of cold and have bare ground.  I love the stats, but I love snow more!

I actually couldn't see my breath when the dew points were so low. With dry air seeing your breath relies on condensation and with temperatures 20 degrees above the dew point that was significantly harder to achieve. Now I can though, with my DP/Temp spread only 3 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, umadbro said:

You’re right. I would have no knowledge of what happens in this area. I’ve never seen it before. You on the other hand. Know better than I. Apologies. 

Phil does at times offer valuable insight. He's also the king of coming in hot with a hideous take on something that may be true 3,000 miles away or at the macro level, but not here. 

[Skagit Weather]

Definitely just a bit of variation in the models for my location. They show anywhere from 0-15" of snow in the next 3 days. I would really love the RGEM to verify because that's by far the best one for up here, but I don't love that the Euro is so opposed to any snow here.

I had a low of 16.7F last night after a 29/14 day yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Definitely just a bit of variation in the models for my location. They show anywhere from 0-15" of snow in the next 3 days. I would really love the RGEM to verify because that's by far the best one for up here, but I don't love that the Euro is so opposed to any snow here.

I had a low of 16.7F last night after a 29/14 day yesterday.

Wishing you the snowiest of solutions. 

[Front Ranger]

Arctic air now encompassing most the country. 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ICON also shows ridiculous amounts of snow for SW BC.... and as we know its very stingy with snow.  

It also shows temps in the mid 30s in Seattle on Tuesday night which would limit the freezing rain potential.   Not so favorable in the Portland area though.  

[ShawniganLake]

RGEM is even farther south. Still rain around Seattle but absolutely buries the northern counties around Bellingham. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Scappoose is down to 15 on the hour, HIO 16. Out at The Dalles they are all the way down to 2. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Arctic air now encompassing most the country. 

WEST COAST WARM FINGER

[FroYoBro]

East wind is back even here in Tigard this morning. Made the dog walk feel much colder this morning, even though yesterday was technically a little colder. Setting up our freezing rain! 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

RGEM is even farther south. Still rain around Seattle but absolutely buries the northern counties around Bellingham. 

Skagit Weather and I will be oh so close according to the GFS, GEM, and ICON. Looks like we are going onto week 3 of forum and model riding! 

[jcmcgaffey]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Lauderdale which is the junction of 970 and 97 has had -11, -10, and -9 the last three days.  That is flat out impressive.

I wish they had a sensor in Liberty.  That place is perfect geographically for some really low readings on clear nights.

Looks like someone has a weather station out there. 

[MossMan]

Much more frosty this morning. 
Currently 18.8.

Low so far is 18.1

[crf450ish]

What does this thermometer read? I say 12F, my dad is saying 2F. Either way, I believe it's a poor layout. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late month will see a return to model riding. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, crf450ish said:

What does this thermometer read? I say 12F, my dad is saying 2F. Either way, I believe it's a poor layout. 

I can see why he would think that, but I would agree, it is reading 12. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

What does this thermometer read? I say 12F, my dad is saying 2F. Either way, I believe it's a poor layout. 

I say 12

[TT-SEA]

Wow... GFS coming in south.   Randy is going to love this run!   And maybe Seattle folks.

 

[MossMan]

Just tossed the remaining Halloween pumpkin into the compost as it will be getting very mushy very quickly when the thaw happens. Anyway…Burrr! Took this shot on my way back from the compost pile. 
Still 18.9 degrees 

[Kayla]

-28F this morning after 3" of snow overnight.

Today is day four of consecutive days below zero. Longest stretch of below zero weather since 1990 here. Really looking forward to finally getting above zero tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Haha wow. I tell you. Whining works!

[TT-SEA]

Just keeps going into Thursday.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well that’s a pretty dramatic change…And with the GEM and ICON being close (at least for my area) confidence has gone from 8.6% to 25.7%! Big jump! 

[Front Ranger]

[crf450ish]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

-28F this morning after 3" of snow overnight.

Today is day four of consecutive days below zero. Longest stretch of below zero weather since 1990 here. Really looking forward to finally getting above zero tomorrow.

Have you ventured into town during this cold snap? If so, have you seen any trucks left running in parking lots? Just curious if that's still a thing.