January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per GFS which also over-estimates precip.    Somehow doesn't show 18 inches of snow along the I-5 corridor!  

GFS is underestimating the PMO - Pacific Mossman Oscillation. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Wow, they need to get watches/warnings out. 

Even the cold GFS shows most of the freezing rain in Seattle with a temp of 32 or 33 which is not great for ice accumulations.    The GFS just assumes ice accumulates the same at 20 degrees as  it does at 32.     That is definitely not the case.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

ECMWF shows it being 16°F at Snoqualmie Pass at 10 PM tomorrow night and only up to 25°F by Wednesday afternoon. How cold do the east winds have to be then?

One additional note... last December it warmed up faster up here than it did in North Bend and expect that to be similar this time around.   Freezing rain issues will be worse the lower you go in the Snoqualmie Valley.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 Going to need at least 2 inches of precip or more since this won't be powder... not sure how that is possible but who knows??   

If his dewpoint stays low the temp could fall into the mid to upper 20's with snow fall.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Most of the city is still without power. Finally got ours back only a few blocks from the substation.

With another inch of ice tomorrow, most of the trees will break and fall. Easily the worst ice storm in Springfield history.

We have had more ice accumulation than snow accumulation since Dec 2021.

You need to update those last subfreezing high stats in your signature block.

[Phishy Wx]

Global models mean nothing at this range except pattern recognition.  we're less than 36 hours from the event.

 

pay attention to the mesos 

[Deweydog]

Wenatchee has now spent the length of an ENTIRE NAM run in the single digits.

[Hawksfan2008]

Days of freezing rain according to the GFS  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per GFS which also over-estimates precip.    Somehow doesn't show 18 inches of snow along the I-5 corridor!  

But wait!! If the low moves south there can't be snow north of it!!!!????

[Phishy Wx]

made to 10 here.  first double digits IMBY since early Thursday AM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only sitting at 24 right now. High so far today has been 26, several degrees cooler than I had been expecting. I'll have to see how this compares to past cold snaps, but for us its in the ballpark with January 2017 and February 2014, not quite as cold as December 2013.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even the cold GFS shows most of the freezing rain in Seattle with a temp of 32 or 33 which is not great for ice accumulations.    The GFS just assumes ice accumulates the same at 20 degrees as  it does at 32.     That is definitely not the case.

One thing I was thinking of today was that the ground is really cold, it is 33 here but the ground is actually 29 to 30. Interesting observation.  I never really thought of it like that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The cold hard fact is I don't trust the gfs at all, it might be on to something but if the ecm stays put on the 00z run tonight then a southern landfall probably isn't going to happen. Interesting though the gfs isn't on its own and the rgem is following its idea.

[awright-31]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

One thing I was thinking of today was that the ground is really cold, it is 33 here but the ground is actually 29 to 30. Interesting observation.  I never really thought of it like that.

But the warm road temps will prevent accumula... wait a minute.

[Tanis Leach]

So the Beavers just landed Damarius Clemsons (4 star) from Michigan. 

I am now convinced this arctic blast was a foreshadowing of his commitment. 

[Deweydog]

The gorge may NEVER thaw.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The dog loves  

 

the ice. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GEFS... some decent members in there and some are north as well.   None of them show 4-5 feet of snow in Arlington like the RGEM though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The dog loves IMG_7846.MOV  

 

the ice. 

Unfortunate we can't delete our own posts anymore because I don't believe this video actually uploaded.

[Phishy Wx]

I am really impressed how cold it's stayed here with zero snow cover.  I imagine it would've averaged 10 degrees colder with decent snow cover which would have been historic.  oh well

[Slushy Inch]

Much better! Chance of inch plus doubled for me.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The cold hard fact is I don't trust the gfs at all, it might be on to something but if the ecm stays put on the 00z run tonight then a southern landfall probably isn't going to happen. Interesting though the gfs isn't on its own and the rgem is following its idea.

Another interesting thing is that the ECMWF has stopped shifting now.    Consistent for last 5 runs.

[MossMan]

Euro is a terrible model. 
 

Its coming. 

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Wow, they need to get watches/warnings out. 

Not sure I’d pull the trigger on that without ECMWF support.

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per GFS which also over-estimates precip.    Somehow doesn't show 18 inches of snow along the I-5 corridor!  

Gfs gives us a second over running event later in the week and totals get a bit crazy here. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not sure I’d pull the trigger on that without ECMWF support.

ECMWF shows freezing rain as well.  And that is probably worth a watch or warning now for all of western WA.

[Prairiedog]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only sitting at 24 right now. High so far today has been 26, several degrees cooler than I had been expecting. I'll have to see how this compares to past cold snaps, but for us its in the ballpark with January 2017 and February 2014, not quite as cold as December 2013.

 

Dec 6 '13 my coldest temp I can remember where I'm at.  8f.  Two mornings of 8.  Coldest day was 18f.  Creek froze over.  That was impressive. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z HRDPS looking more south again. And weaker. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows freezing rain as well.  And that is probably worth a watch or warning now for all of western WA.

Roads and ground are going to be too warm. 
 

Cliff Mass. 

[ajreich]

Interesting, Euro ensembles have been trending colder longer the last 6 runs. Be curious as observation data keeps coming in on the cold side how that impacts 0z tonight. The air might be warming, but the ground is a frozen rock.

I dont think we’ll hit 25 today, stalled at 23 and the sun is sinking.

[ajreich]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GEFS... some decent members in there and some are north as well.   None of them show 4-5 feet of snow in Arlington like the RGEM though. 

 

That low position tho. Gorge winds will be howling for Portland.

[Doinko]

Roads are covered in snow, no melting happened today in the sun. Solid 3" depth on average. 30/21 so far today, I think we could get a midnight low. We were at 14 degrees during the storm so hopefully we can get colder tomorrow morning. Overall I'd definitely say this has been my favorite stretch of winter weather since January 2017

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

18z HRDPS looking more south again. And weaker. 

Old news but yes

[Meatyorologist]

On the edge here in North Seattle. Almost don't even want to watch models/radar, it's so nauseatingly close to seeing snow here.

[ajreich]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You have a gorgeous view 

Thanks! We’re actually moving in a couple of weeks up to a place off Skyline. The view here is nice, but the winds and traffic noise from 405 mean we can’t enjoy the deck as much as you’d think, even when the weather is nice. Plus our new place is up around 1000ft, so better weather

[bainbridgekid]

Nice improvement on the 18z GEFS.

Percent of members showing at least 1” and 4”:

Bellingham: 100 - 90

Mt. Vernon: 84 - 45

Everett: 68 - 42

Seattle: 32 - 6

[Phil]

If it’s a marginal setup w/ terrain dependence/low level cold, then I’d ride the Euro/NAM hard. Just based on my personal experience.

RGEM is good w/ mesoscale precip dynamics (sometimes better than NAM) but I’ve noticed it can sometimes overestimate nocturnal & wet bulb cooling when the boundary layer isn’t saturated at initialization (previous runs had us in the teens today and the result was mid-20s).

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows freezing rain as well.  And that is probably worth a watch or warning now for all of western WA.

I see. Haven’t looked at modeled soundings, so in that case I’d probably consider a watch in climo favored areas.

[Slushy Inch]

Jan 27th

 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

On the edge here in North Seattle. Almost don't even want to watch models/radar, it's so nauseatingly close to seeing snow here.

Good point... its only 30 hours away now and it might be less stressful to watch observations and eventually radar and just enjoy it.     There won't be any model consensus anyways.