January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[bainbridgekid]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm glad I noticed the pipes to my laundry room were frozen while it was still early enough to thaw them before they broke. As an aside I had a full 5 gallon bucket of water outside that froze harder than I have ever seen.  It absolutely destroyed the bucket. During the coldest weather the bucket was still fine, but today it had a massive split in it.

My GF has a farm in Enumclaw and the 50 gallon troughs her animals use froze solid and broke. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS... Wednesday morning and trend loop.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm glad I noticed the pipes to my laundry room were frozen while it was still early enough to thaw them before they broke. As an aside I had a full 5 gallon bucket of water outside that froze harder than I have ever seen.  It absolutely destroyed the bucket. During the coldest weather the bucket was still fine, but today it had a massive split in it.

I had no issues with pipes freezing in the last two winters but one froze this time. Same story: in the laundry area and I noticed it before anything had burst.

I blame the dryer vent for letting cold air leak in.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It forces the cold air into places that it might not normally reach.  It also transport heat away from walls that might have pipes behind them.

Where did you read this? I’m not sure that makes sense thermodynamically?

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only for the streaming-only games... canceling it now.   Cost me $12.  

you paid $12 to see dudes breath on TV?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

you paid $12 to see dudes breath on TV?

Yes sir.   Watched a couple movies on there too.  

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I thought about that after I posted it. That does make sense.

Aside from having the pipes always insulated, we block the foundation vents to slow the cold moving into the crawl space when temps get sub-20. Works well and moisture build-up isn’t an issue since it’s only a few days typically. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes.   00Z high res will be very interesting.  Guessing it will be slightly north but still very good from Everett northward.   

@ShawniganLake does it use GEM data?

HRDPS and NAM 3km were both dead-on accurate with the arctic front snow here last week.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Aside from having the pipes always insulated, we block the foundation vents to slow the cold moving into the crawl space when temps get sub-20. Works well and moisture build-up isn’t an issue since it’s only a few days typically. 

Plugged the dryer vent with rags for the time being. Will probably remove the plug tomorrow.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes sir.   Watched a couple movies on there too.  

that game wasn't worth it.  I found a pirated feed from TSN and watched it for free.  glad I didn't pay for it

[Slushy Inch]

One of the worst freezing rain events ever for PS on gfs?

[snow_wizard]

The thing that makes this cold wave even more impressive is the huge minus anomalies have been achieved with very little decoupling / radiational cooling in many places.  Just raw power!

You take a cold wave like January 1957 for instance.  It didn't have the teeth on the initial blast like this one, but it made the most out of snow cover and radiational cooling later on.  I think we could have seen numerous places drop to zero Saturday night if things had decoupled better.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, MikeInEverett said:

People probably didn’t pay as much attention because in the final few days leading up to the start of the cold their weather apps didn’t have a ton of snowflakes. I feel like that will make the general public not take it as serious because it won’t be as “impactful” in a way, and people will forget about the impact the dry cold can also have.

Exactly, also the wild swings on their phone apps leading up to it probably lead people to think it wouldn’t happen. 

Lack of snowcover I feel also contributed. 

And some people are just lazy. 

[Hawksfan2008]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NWS is going to regret not hitting the ZR harder for the EPSL.  The models make a great case for it with that evaporative cooling cold tongue tomorrow evening.

I agree. During last year’s event they weren’t saying much. I sent them a message as I saw winds were supposed to stay easterly and they said it was going to warm up. Woke up the next morning after to 31 degrees and continued freezing rain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This path is crazy, I would be amazed if this actually happened this way!!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRDPS and NAM 3km were both dead-on accurate with the arctic front snow here last week.

Those two models are completely different this time.  

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

On of the worst freezing rain events ever for PS on gfs?

Jan 2012 was worse here, but that was not an issue a bit north of here.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This path is crazy, I would be amazed if this actually happened this way!!

Just buries Everett northward.   

Randy - the timing of you snow late morning through afternoon on Wednesday.   

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

One of the worst freezing rain events ever for PS on gfs?

Not even close to 2012 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This path is crazy, I would be amazed if this actually happened this way!!

Gfs only model that obliterates the low by Wednesday afternoon 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Aside from having the pipes always insulated, we block the foundation vents to slow the cold moving into the crawl space when temps get sub-20. Works well and moisture build-up isn’t an issue since it’s only a few days typically. 

I keep those in all winter over here, our new house is crawl space, not basement like our old place.  the only thing that concerns me is my water heater is in the garage and it can get down in the low 30s or upper 20s in there when it's below zero outside.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Jan 2012 was worse here, but that was not an issue a bit north of here.

It started raining here in the 2012 event when it was 18 degrees.   This one seems to be quite different.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 2012 was worse here, but that was not an issue a bit north of here.

I doubt Seattle got .47 this run looks unlikely 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This path is crazy, I would be amazed if this actually happened this way!!

Still potential for more movement south on the snow area.  Incredibly complex series of events.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This path is crazy, I would be amazed if this actually happened this way!!

That low’s not lazy, I bet that’d really make your day!!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I doubt Seattle got .47 this run looks unlikely 

I had a good inch of rain fall here with temps below freezing in 2012.  This won't get there.

[TacomaWx]

GEM looks pretty similar. Overall looking like it could be a pretty decent ice event if the cold air holds on longer than expected. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not even close to 2012 

Or, for that matter, December 1996. Everyone remembers that winter for the snow, but south of Downtown Seattle ice was the big story.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Mercurial said:

NWS Missoula says we have literally a 100% chance of getting 4 or more inches from this system.  Talk about going out of their way to jinx us, jfc.  

That seems like it would be common in Montana except maybe Troy or Libby?

[the_convergence_zone]

37/23 here today. My garden looks like total carnage. It’s like Mother Nature took exception to us getting moved to zone 9A. Some perennials that have never had problems before look incinerated. I’m sure some will recover but I worry about my dahlia tubers even though I added extra mulch this week. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Those two models are completely different this time.  

FWIW the NAM kicked ass with the ongoing snow event here. Almost perfectly modeled. I bash it a lot, but I’m impressed with it this time.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Or, for that matter, December 1996. Everyone remembers that winter for the snow, but south of Downtown Seattle ice was the big story.

Yep I have that VHS recording of that event and Tacoma got nuked by ice 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

37/23 here today. My garden looks like total carnage. It’s like Mother Nature took exception to us getting moved to zone 9A. Some perennials that have never had problems before look incinerated. I’m sure some will recover but I worry about my dahlia tubers even though I added extra mulch this week. 

Ever try growing native plants?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

37/23 here today. My garden looks like total carnage. It’s like Mother Nature took exception to us getting moved to zone 9A. Some perennials that have never had problems before look incinerated. I’m sure some will recover but I worry about my dahlia tubers even though I added extra mulch this week. 

Lack of snow cover is quite bad with the temps we just had. 

[snow_wizard]

It looks like the 18z GEFS was starting to pick up on something late month along with the CFS.  Might be something to it.  Now wouldn't that be something?

[Skagit Weather]

33.4/16.7F day here and back down to 24F. The GEM is truly embracing its name tonight. It shows 18" (12" Kuchera here). Maybe the 00z Euro will come around to join the party.

[Kayla]

Made it all the way up to -6F today! Really looking forward to getting out of the deep Arctic freeze tomorrow and getting back outside again.

Currently -16F.

[TT-SEA]

Randy... 00Z GEM has you just inside the pepto!   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Canadian looks like the snow line is a bit south

[TacomaWx]

Too bad the upper levels have warmed up. 850mb temps drop low enough to support snow once the the lower level cold has mixed out south of Seattle. Seems like it’s definitely going to be ice for most people south of Seattle but north of Everett or so the upper level temps support it if the low comes in far enough south.