January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep I have that VHS recording of that event and Tacoma got nuked by ice 

The interesting thing is north of Seattle was supposed to get nothing and it was supposed to snow heavy south of Seattle.  It all moved north at the last minute.  I was thrilled being that I lived in Woodinville at the time.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy... 00Z GEM has you just inside the pepto!   

Pretty close to gfs. Need just a little shift to get over Bothell better.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The Canadian looks like the snow line is a bit south

If things trended south enough maybe possibly we could go ZR->Snow? Seems unlikely given how close we are that the models could change that much but it would be fun. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If things trended south enough maybe possibly we could go ZR->Snow? Seems unlikely given how close we are that the models could change that much but it would be fun. 

The thing is the situation is very complex and just a tiny shift would have big implications.  Could happen.

The early part will be ZR though.

[MossMan]

Go team GFS/GEM! 
NAM and Euro you both suck! 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

37/23 here today. My garden looks like total carnage. It’s like Mother Nature took exception to us getting moved to zone 9A. Some perennials that have never had problems before look incinerated. I’m sure some will recover but I worry about my dahlia tubers even though I added extra mulch this week. 

I have evergreen juniper ornamentals in front of my house that look scalded and turning brown.  I don't think it was the -11 as much as the almost 2 days straight below 0 and the fact it hasn't gotten above 10 really since last thursday.  longevity of the cold.  last time it was this cold 2 years ago it lasted one night and there was snow cover on the bushes to protect them

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Too bad the upper levels have warmed up. 850mb temps drop low enough to support snow once the the lower level cold has mixed out south of Seattle. Seems like it’s definitely going to be ice for most people south of Seattle but north of Everett or so the upper level temps support it if the low comes in far enough south. 

It's actually amazing how many things have went just right for the entire sound to miss out on a snow event and now this one will miss Seattle again most likely.  A couple inches will happen here but I was hoping for a *** of a lot more. North of Everett is going to get a major event.

Maybe I need to start complaining more.

 

[MossMan]

24.2 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is the situation is very complex and just a tiny shift would have big implications.  Could happen.

The early part will be ZR though.

How warm do 850's get? I've had snow here with the 850 modeled at plus 1-2 . 

Evevapertive cooling did the trick on that one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that makes this cold wave even more impressive is the huge minus anomalies have been achieved with very little decoupling / radiational cooling in many places.  Just raw power!

You take a cold wave like January 1957 for instance.  It didn't have the teeth on the initial blast like this one, but it made the most out of snow cover and radiational cooling later on.  I think we could have seen numerous places drop to zero Saturday night if things had decoupled better.

Jim you are going to like this fun fact. This event featured the coldest back to back January highs at SLE in January since 1950!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How warm do 850's get? I've had snow here with the 850 modeled at plus 1-2 . 

Evevapertive cooling did the trick on that one.

925mb temps are also a problem.

[BLI snowman]

Gorge run today. Started out at the Vista House where 60-70mph winds nearly claimed my hat. Coldest windchill I've ever personally experienced, guesstimating it was around -10. 

Went down to the waterfall corridor and not surprisingly it got progressively more frozen the further east you went. Horsetail was completely frozen over at the basin. Also came across some snapped trees along the trail in the area near Wahkeena Falls. Wrapped up in Hood River for dinner with the kickass sunset and temps around 12. 

Edited January 16 by BLI snowman

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's actually amazing how many things have went just right for the entire sound to miss out on a snow event and now this one will miss Seattle again most likely.  A couple inches will happen here but I was hoping for a *** of a lot more. North of Everett is going to get a major event.

Maybe I need to start complaining more.

 

Yea, tough couple of years. 2020, 2022, and 2023 for Seattle south. It should even out soon though. We are way over due for an Olympia/Tacoma special. 

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep I have that VHS recording of that event and Tacoma got nuked by ice 

Got 5" of snow, followed by probably an inch or so of ice. Then 8" of snow with overrunning event a couple days later.

[Slushy Inch]

Deformation band moves south and we are back to snow on high res gem. Temps 33.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Deformation band moves south and we are back to snow on high res gem.

God that would be a fn mess 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If things trended south enough maybe possibly we could go ZR->Snow? Seems unlikely given how close we are that the models could change that much but it would be fun. 

That would be truly wild. Has anyone here experienced that? It's usually the other way, but maybe things are just backward this year. Hard to believe, but I'll root for it if I cant have pure snow. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

God that would be a fn mess 

Snow on top of freezing rain 

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Made it all the way up to -6F today! Really looking forward to getting out of the deep Arctic freeze tomorrow and getting back outside again.

Currently -16F.

DEN has been below 0 something like 70 of the past 74 hours. Currently -10.

Quite a stretch...not sure how it stacks up historically, but definitely a rare duration of extreme cold.

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Deformation band moves south and we are back to snow on high res gem. Temps 33.

Please please  

[Deweydog]

Madre sent this gem from the coast this evening. Stellar run at Astoria for what was pretty much wall to wall low level blast:

41/27

29/24

32/24

36/28

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I have evergreen juniper ornamentals in front of my house that look scalded and turning brown.  I don't think it was the -11 as much as the almost 2 days straight below 0 and the fact it hasn't gotten above 10 really since last thursday.  longevity of the cold.  last time it was this cold 2 years ago it lasted one night and there was snow cover on the bushes to protect them

The evaporation does a number on them for sure. Low temps, low dew points, no insulation, high wind end up having the same effect as high temps, low humidity, high winds in the summer.

[ShawniganLake]

53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON just buries the northern areas.  This is seriously impressive for an ICON snow map.

That’s a lot of pink over southern Vancouver island.   

[Skagit Weather]

Anyone have the snow total for the HRDPS?

[Meatyorologist]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NWS is going to regret not hitting the ZR harder for the EPSL.  The models make a great case for it with that evaporative cooling cold tongue tomorrow evening.

Hard agree

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

DEN has been below 0 something like 70 of the past 74 hours. Currently -10.

Quite a stretch...not sure how it stacks up historically, but definitely a rare duration of extreme cold.

Yeah we’re over 100 hours straight now of below zero temps in Bozeman. Should end up with ~115hrs straight. It’s been brutal but also it’s a pretty neat thing to experience in a weather nerd type of way.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Anyone have the snow total for the HRDPS?

2.5km? Because snow is still falling when the run reaches its endpoint 

[KingstonWX]

12 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

That would be truly wild. Has anyone here experienced that? It's usually the other way, but maybe things are just backward this year. Hard to believe, but I'll root for it if I cant have pure snow. 

When I lived in Mukilteo I experienced that a few times, actually. Its not as cool as it sounds. You think you can walk on snow but if there's an inch of ice under it, good luck. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I had a good inch of rain fall here with temps below freezing in 2012.  This won't get there.

I had all snow in 2012, be interesting to see what the upper levels were with that event compared to this one.

[Meatyorologist]

Starting to see a last minute push across hi-res guidance to fit in an anafrontal feature on the backend of the low. That would be a much more realistic and believable way to get snowfall into Seattle than the wacky gymnastics of shunting this barely defined low 200 miles south in 36 hours in a situation where they usually barrel straight into Vancouver Island.

That being said, no, Tim, we do not appreciate you spending six hours of this god given Monday meticulously making sure each and every one of us fully understands there will NOT be snow south of Everett tomorrow.

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

2.5km? Because snow is still falling when the run reaches its endpoint 

Yeah, the high resolution one you just posted (which I believe is the 2.5km). Just interested in what it shows up here for the end of the run.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah we’re over 100 hours straight now of below zero temps in Bozeman. Should end up with ~115hrs straight. It’s been brutal but also it’s a pretty neat thing to experience in a weather nerd type of way.

bruh

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, the high resolution one you just posted (which I believe is the 2.5km). Just interested in what it shows up here for the end of the run.

Still snowing 

[Slushy Inch]

Me when I see Tim post a snow map with no snow. When I see a snow map with no snow I close that sh*t out quick!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

[Skagit Weather]

UKMET says no snow south of Bellingham although it inched the tiniest hair south from its previous run. Realistically I think the Euro will fall into the same camp and it will be a model battle up until the cold rain begins to fall.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Still snowing 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m really impressed with the low level oompf this thing had. It had some shades of 2004 and 1996, but played out in a pretty unique way. Some of the best CAA with a low level blast I can remember. Makes you realize what this climate is capable of. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Starting to see a last minute push across hi-res guidance to fit in an anafrontal feature on the backend of the low. That would be a much more realistic and believable way to get snowfall into Seattle than the wacky gymnastics of shunting this barely defined low 200 miles south in 36 hours in a situation where they usually barrel straight into Vancouver Island.

That being said, no, Tim, we do not appreciate you spending six hours of this god given Monday meticulously making sure each and every one fully understands there will NOT be snow south of Everett tomorrow.

I am not even sure about south of Everett now!    And it was a NFL playoff Monday and a holiday. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

They made a tweet