January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[bainbridgekid]

34 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

 

 

Can either of you help me decipher this a bit? LOL it's a bit advanced for dangerous dilettante level understanding I'm still at.   

Made this which should help explain it a bit.

 

[Phishy Wx]

I think this is going to be a doozy.  or a Whopper and NWS Spokane is calling it

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Aren’t 850s below 0 ahead of Thursday’s system. SE flow usually holds that in place along the east slopes of the olympics. Similar to my location. Both systems are showing 6”+ here.  While SE flow will scour out the BC lower mainland Thursday, the cold will likely hang in a little longer over here. 

The problem with today is 850mb wind is from the sw so although we have dry air between the ground and 2500ft we have moist air at 5kft so evaporative cooling wont do its trick up there. On Thursday we have a deeper layer of offshore flow, even at 850 it has a se look to it.

Edited January 16 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[SpaceRace22]

Also, I know that meatyorologist and Mr Nyberg think I am a literal child for liking the GraphCast (xoxo h8rs) and gave me a good scolding last week for having the audacity to mention it, but I just found this actual skill data comparison for it and it blows even the Euro out of the water. I've also seen some literature claiming that GraphCast especially tends to handle extreme events better than the other models, so I think this is very likely the primary model we are going to be using on here in the future. 

In particular, I found it interesting how there were a couple times recently where the GFS or Euro (or both) fell off a cliff, but the GraphCast didn't. Look at the periods around Oct 17th, Nov 20th, Dec 30th, and Jan 4th on this chart for some examples of GraphCast completely outperforming the others.

Anecdotally, GraphCast did seem to have this whole event over the weekend down better than any other model, so there is very likely a new king in town that I will be there for trusting above all the others in future events. At least around the mid range/5 day-ish period. Still a lot of use for the traditional models in the long and short range periods imo.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also, I know that meatyorologist and Mr Nyberg think I am a literal child for liking the GraphCast (xoxo h8rs) and gave me a good scolding last week for having the audacity to mention it, but I just found this actual skill data comparison for it and it blows even the Euro out of the water. I've also seen some literature claiming that GraphCast especially tends to handle extreme events better than the other models, so I think this is very likely the primary model we are going to be using on here in the future. 

In particular, I found it interesting how there were a couple times recently where the GFS or Euro (or both) fell off a cliff, but the GraphCast didn't. Look at the periods around Oct 17th, Nov 20th, Dec 30th, and Jan 4th on this chart for some examples of GraphCast completely outperforming the others.

Anecdotally, GraphCast did seem to have this whole event over the weekend down better than any other model, so there is very likely a new king in town that I will be there for trusting above all the others in future events. At least around the mid range/5 day-ish period. Still a lot of use for the traditional models in the long and short range periods imo.

Well what does it show for tonight!!

[sherwoodor]

So whatcha all thinking for my neck of the woods (washington co, sherwood/newberg) this afternoon/evening? I'm expecting freezing rain 3-4pm, but curious if it'll be the .25" or the .5-.75" territory. We've kept power on this entire time, so hopefully that holds, but not sure how reasonable that expectation is with half inch of ice. 

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

• Sorry about the pipe! I'm with you on this one, sitting out until at least the end of the month, or whenever, always on standby. Going anywhere warm soon? 

 

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Argh. That sounds fun. The pipe that runs from the house to the hose bib at the front of the garage was my biggest worry so I put one of those radiator heaters in the garage to keep that wall warmish, otherwise I’m almost certain it would have popped. 

Thanks Andrew and i May need to do that next year Randy! Lol….so frustrating 

Decided to take this one on myself fixing.  My first, gotta start somewhere.  Everything in place now and letting it sit for and hour before I turn water back on. Cleaned all ends and used flux in the joints.

fingers crossed 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the 12Z ECMWF... I am not really expecting much here.   Some light freezing rain tonight with marginal temps and probably not much if any snow.

Thank god. I have a flight in at noon tomorrow, that’s if Nashville can get their sh*t together. 3 days stuck here now. I sat on a plane for 7!!!! Hrs on Sunday before they cancelled the flight.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also, I know that meatyorologist and Mr Nyberg think I am a literal child for liking the GraphCast (xoxo h8rs) and gave me a good scolding last week for having the audacity to mention it, but I just found this actual skill data comparison for it and it blows even the Euro out of the water. I've also seen some literature claiming that GraphCast especially tends to handle extreme events better than the other models, so I think this is very likely the primary model we are going to be using on here in the future. 

In particular, I found it interesting how there were a couple times recently where the GFS or Euro (or both) fell off a cliff, but the GraphCast didn't. Look at the periods around Oct 17th, Nov 20th, Dec 30th, and Jan 4th on this chart for some examples of GraphCast completely outperforming the others.

Anecdotally, GraphCast did seem to have this whole event over the weekend down better than any other model, so there is very likely a new king in town that I will be there for trusting above all the others in future events. At least around the mid range/5 day-ish period. Still a lot of use for the traditional models in the long and short range periods imo.

Yeah, seems to be doing really well so far with 500mb patterns. Which is really the most important modeled aspect 5-8 days out.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Also. Don’t fly Alaska Air. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Thank god. I have a flight in at noon tomorrow, that’s if Nashville can get their sh*t together. 3 days stuck here now. I sat on a plane for 7!!!! Hrs on Sunday before they cancelled the flight.

Yeah I got my flight cancelled in December 2021 and it was a nightmare trying to get home. It sucks. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Also. Don’t fly Alaska Air. 

Sounds like a horrible situation there.   Just miserable.

We fly Alaska all the time and its rated the best airline for customer service.   Never had any issues with them at all.   This is probably a crappy situation for all the airlines.

[Tyler Mode]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Thank god. I have a flight in at noon tomorrow, that’s if Nashville can get their sh*t together. 3 days stuck here now. I sat on a plane for 7!!!! Hrs on Sunday before they cancelled the flight.

Don't they have to compensate you when it's been that long?  They should if they don't!  Just deplane!

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sounds like a horrible situation there.   Just miserable.

We fly Alaska all the time and its rated the best airline for customer service.   Never had any issues with them at all.   This is probably a crappy situation for all the airlines.

just stay off the 737 Max

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 15.5 and currently 24 with a partly cloudy sky.  Lots of frost and high hopes for another shot at snow in February.  I am not onboard for any snow to round out this past week of great weather.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hate to fly, and the reason is my mechanical brain thinks of all the crap that can break, or technician's doing repairs wrong. 

But it still is the safest way to travel long range.

[Slushy Inch]

17 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also, I know that meatyorologist and Mr Nyberg think I am a literal child for liking the GraphCast (xoxo h8rs) and gave me a good scolding last week for having the audacity to mention it, but I just found this actual skill data comparison for it and it blows even the Euro out of the water. I've also seen some literature claiming that GraphCast especially tends to handle extreme events better than the other models, so I think this is very likely the primary model we are going to be using on here in the future. 

In particular, I found it interesting how there were a couple times recently where the GFS or Euro (or both) fell off a cliff, but the GraphCast didn't. Look at the periods around Oct 17th, Nov 20th, Dec 30th, and Jan 4th on this chart for some examples of GraphCast completely outperforming the others.

Anecdotally, GraphCast did seem to have this whole event over the weekend down better than any other model, so there is very likely a new king in town that I will be there for trusting above all the others in future events. At least around the mid range/5 day-ish period. Still a lot of use for the traditional models in the long and short range periods imo.

Apparently ecmfw has an AI model out that is even better than graphcast

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sounds like a horrible situation there.   Just miserable.

We fly Alaska all the time and its rated the best airline for customer service.   Never had any issues with them at all.   This is probably a crappy situation for all the airlines.

Alaska has had a very bad month. I used to love them, but I have been delayed on my last 10 Alaska flights. Averaging 2-3 hrs 

[North_County]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Those amounts will probably bust (too low).

 

NWS WSW is calling for 2-5 inches in Whatcom County. I feel (hope) that's probably a bit low, too. Especially away from the water.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, North_County said:

NWS WSW is calling for 2-5 inches in Whatcom County. I feel (hope) that's probably a bit low, too. Especially away from the water.

I would say that is a fair forecast. 5 is a great snow storm.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Don't they have to compensate you when it's been that long?  They should if they don't!  Just deplane!

I’m not the only one. The last 3 days all arrivals had to wait on the tarmac for 6 hrs on average to get a gate. Nashville airport ignoring all calls from the pilots. They need to get sued.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Thank god. I have a flight in at noon tomorrow, that’s if Nashville can get their sh*t together. 3 days stuck here now. I sat on a plane for 7!!!! Hrs on Sunday before they cancelled the flight.

Seven hours? You may be able to sue.

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/tarmac-delay-rules

[KingstonWX]

This forecast is so difficult to nail down, my weather app says its going to be bright and sunny at 10pm. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seven hours? You may have a tort against them.

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/tarmac-delay-rules

Oh I know they are breaking the 3 hr mandate by Senator Pete. So many people have a case against this airport and the airlines 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m not the only one. The last 3 days all arrivals had to wait on the tarmac for 6 hrs on average to get a gate. Nashville airport ignoring all calls from the pilots. They need to get sued.

the south is the worst at dealing with any type of weather emergencies 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had my connecting flight from Vegas to PDX canceled last February and they said they couldn't get me on a return flight for 3 days. They refunded my money and I just rented a car and drove home. It was Spirit so you get what you pay for there...

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Alaska has had a very bad month. I used to love them, but I have been delayed on my last 10 Alaska flights. Averaging 2-3 hrs 

Alaska's main advantage over other airlines is that Sea-Tac doesn't get inclement weather very often. 

As soon as there are issues that impact operations, you get reminded that they are a small-ish airline and don't have the flexibility that the big ones do. 

Personally I like the 737-MAX, it's a more comfortable ride than the older planes. I hope they get their issues figured out in two weeks because I have a vacation coming up and don't want to be delayed. Tighten the bolts on those plug doors and get those things back in the air. 

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

just stay off the 737 Max

I flew on a 737 Max 8 from Toronto to Dublin just a short time before the first crash in Indonesia.  A great airplane and a great flight at that time... gulp!

[The Ms. Anthrop]

24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Made this which should help explain it a bit.

 

That is awesome, thank you so much for taking the time to make it! Seriously, I really love lurking in this forum- with all of the debating back and forth everyone does I've learned a ton, and I really appreciate how well ideas are explained (or picked to shreds lol). 

Alas, you can add me to the broken pipe brigade. Fire alarm has gone off 4 times in the last hour as we climb above freezing in my condo building. One of our sprinklers has busted. Right now hoping that it's just one of the exterior pipes going from the control room, but we will only know for sure as we thaw out and when we get a plumber in. lol @Blizzard777 if your fix holds, you want to make some extra money by coming north and soldering ours?  Goodness knows when we will be able to get someone out to look at it...

Already 32.9 in Skyway, le sigh.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In my opinion if you are flying coach and not checking any luggage or bringing a carry on there is no difference between the discount carriers and the more expensive ones. I'll occasionally fly Alaska if it's for business, never had a problem with them either. I can't think of an airline I haven't flown, they all kind of suck in one way or another. I think I'm flying United next week. 

Edited January 16 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Alaska has had a very bad month. I used to love them, but I have been delayed on my last 10 Alaska flights. Averaging 2-3 hrs 

My wife just left SEA this morning bound for MSP... flight left early.   

[Deweydog]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm looking at @Deweydog and @BLI snowman for this one. What would a couple historical comps be for this stretch? This reminds me quite a bit of 2004, but on the other end the temps west of the Cascades have been so impressive. Some kind of hybrid between 2004 and 1968? 

I think 12/68, 1/96, 1/04, 12/08 (round two), 2/21 and 12/22 are all relevant to the discussion. 12/68 was really the only one that was a full couple clicks colder while the rest verified about as cold or a few clicks warmer when it came to the peak cold air damming on the east slopes. For low level blasts, this one will be pretty hard to beat.

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Alaska's main advantage over other airlines is that Sea-Tac doesn't get inclement weather very often. 

As soon as there are issues that impact operations, you get reminded that they are a small-ish airline and don't have the flexibility that the big ones do. 

Personally I like the 737-MAX, it's a more comfortable ride than the older planes. I hope they get their issues figured out in two weeks because I have a vacation coming up and don't want to be delayed. Tighten the bolts on those plug doors and get those things back in the air. 

I'm an airbus guy, they seem roomier in general

[DareDuck]

Low of 0 this morning  at my place in Bend. Decided to take a drive down to the Deschutes. Glad I went before it warms up because the river is nearly frozen over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I think 12/68, 1/96, 1/04, 12/08 (round two), 2/21 and 12/22 are all relevant to the discussion. 12/68 was really the only one that was a full couple clicks colder while the rest verified about as cold or a few clicks warmer when it came to the peak cold air damming on the east slopes. For low level blasts, this one will be pretty hard to beat.

Thanks! Yeah, I feel like for low level cold this one beats out all of those except 68', though 2004 was pretty close at its peak. I feel like this one cleaned up what that one left on the table. Maybe I'm missing something, but for what temps in the lower Columbia Basin verified at, I feel like we did about as well as we could have dreamed of with this (In terms of temps.). Maybe one of these days we can couple a low level blast with a full upper level blast and see what happens. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, DareDuck said:

Low of 0 this morning  at my place in Bend. Decided to take a drive down to the Deschutes. Glad I went before it warms up because the river is nearly frozen over. 

Incredible!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I flew on a 737 Max 8 from Toronto to Dublin just a short time before the first crash in Indonesia.  A great airplane and a great flight at that time... gulp!

Not heard of any problems with the Max 8 recently. It is the Max 9 that blew a door plug.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows today and Thursday to be significantly colder than the day in between with the snow event we are tracking.     Quite the spread on day 10 day!   That means it shows 45 at midnight and 44 at 4 a.m. (end of run) and would guess its showing  rain at that time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11am temps:

PDX 24

SLE 23

EUG 23

The Dalles 6

Pendleton 5

DP's in the Willamette Valley are single digits north end to high teens down by Eugene. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Up to 34 here, we're headed for a 40 bagger today. With the dew point still at 13 F.