January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also ignore the “L” symbol on those WxBell graphs, it’s next to meaningless as these mid latitude lows have multiple small scale pressure minimas, and the “L” only indicates where the lowest minima is.

In miller-B nor’easter that L symbol “teleports” to the coast all the time as that portion of the storm intensifies. It’s often referred to as the “transfer” to the coast, but that’s actually not what’s happening at all.

Is there a way to get real-time pressure maps?

[GHweatherChris]

There is no mid level low right now, satellite image shows a somewhat tightly wound low off the Oregon Coast, nowhere near where any model showed anything for this time frame, also it is not showing signs of moving north at all currently.

[MossMan]

32.0 

DP 25

Nothing falling from the sky yet 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Makes you wonder will the snow forecast for SWBC bust. 

We do not speak of such things in this house.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

“Old Man winter” has me dying with laughter 

Mmmm yeah that burn came from this playbook...

Which is ironic given the start of the thread with the KOMO meteorologist. Cliff Mass really needs a SM timeout. 

 

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, North_County said:

Side note, but does anyone else call a freezing rain event a "silver thaw"? Or is that just a local colloquialism? Growing up, that's what I always heard it referred to as. But I don't think I've ever heard that phrase from anyone outside of Whatcom County.

Definitely used in other places as well. Pretty consistent part of the winter vernacular until a bit more recently.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Drew a diagram for my 11 year old of how we get snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain. He looked at my drawing and without prompting said, "That looks like a really ugly nose." Yes, my son. That warm air layer is a really ugly warm nose. Hadn't even taught him what it was called yet. Proud parent moment!

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

yep, I don't think it becomes vertically stacked until it gets east of the cascades

Yeah and if/when it does get vertically stacked that usually denotes occlusion. Mid-latitude cyclones aren’t like hurricanes, where vertical alignment is prerequisite for rapid strengthening. If anything it’s the opposite.

Those WxBell “L” symbols are useful for tracking mature(ing) tropical systems. Meaningless for middle latitude cyclones, though.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also ignore the “L” symbol on those WxBell graphs, it’s next to meaningless as these mid latitude lows have multiple small scale pressure minimas, and the “L” only indicates where the lowest minima is. It will jump all over the place.

In miller-B nor’easter that L symbol “teleports” to the coast all the time as that portion of the storm intensifies. It’s often referred to as the “transfer” to the coast, but that’s actually not what’s happening at all.

this almost feels like a Miller B in reverse on the west coast.

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

30 at EUG. It's coming. 

We'll see if the 45-50 stuff is overdone in the valley and if it remains a more gradual mix out. Not seeing a mechanism for a big jump in the next 12 hours. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Is there a way to get real-time pressure maps?

Yeah. You’ll have to change the view area to PNW but this is the realtime meso-analysis from SPC. I use it during summer convection season all the time, and it’s helpful during winter storms too.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

[Chewbacca Defense]

15 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Makes you wonder will the snow forecast for SWBC bust. 

After my first response, I looked at the radar and its starting to pick up some returns over Whatcom County.

I guess it's time to start staring out the window!

[Phil]

Nevermind I did it. Here’s the PNW sector for realtime meso-analysis. Updates every hour.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=11&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

After my first response, I looked at the radar and its starting to pick up some returns over Whatcom County.

I guess it's time to start staring out the window!

I have already done 2 flashlight out the window checks! 

[North_County]

20 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Makes you wonder will the snow forecast for SWBC bust. 

I down-voted you, but honestly had the same thought......

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Go to bed everyone. It’s done  

Place your bets ladies and gentleman! Place your bets! The fight will begin soon!

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah and if/when it does get vertically stacked that usually denotes occlusion. Mid-latitude cyclones aren’t like hurricanes, where vertical alignment is prerequisite for rapid strengthening. If anything it’s the opposite.

cut my teeth studying east coast cyclones.  neat to compare to west coast synoptics and dynamics

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

There is no mid level low right now, satellite image shows a somewhat tightly wound low off the Oregon Coast, nowhere near where any model showed anything for this time frame, also it is not showing signs of moving north at all currently.

Huh? Yes there is.

Here’s how the 18z ECMWF has modeled the 500mb vort.

[smerfylicious]

For those of us that have no flakes in our lives right now, here's heave---I mean Skykomish live:

 

 

[Hawksfan2008]

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Huh? Yes there is.

Here’s how the 18z ECMWF has modeled the 500mb vort.

EURO sucks, LAME!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Huh? Yes there is.

Here’s how the 18z ECMWF has modeled the 500mb vort.

Ahhhh... so the ECMWF is not totally out to lunch.  

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Huh? Yes there is.

Here’s how the 18z ECMWF has modeled the 500mb vort.

indeed, southern low looks like it transfers some energy but not a full phase as BC short wave takes over

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhhh... so the ECMWF is not totally out to lunch.  

Yeah I was thinking there must be something that we were missing. There’s no way all the models could be so far off the mark. 

[MossMan]

It’s precipitating! Doesn’t look like sleet but tiny ice pellets hitting the deck. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhhh... so the ECMWF is not totally out to lunch.  

never was, upstream energy was always the dominant feature, the little guy off OR seems impressive on satellite and spun up a little more than modeled.  probably leads to a more dynamic scenario downstream?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhhh... so the ECMWF is not totally out to lunch.  

Nope. At least not at that level.

But precip type/etc might have more to due with boundary layer thermodynamics, where guidance is more likely to fuck up at short lead times given difficulties w/rt resolution/terrain and the different ways that physics are parameterized (some work better than others depending on the situation).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

We'll see if the 45-50 stuff is overdone in the valley and if it remains a more gradual mix out. Not seeing a mechanism for a big jump in the next 12 hours. 

Probably. We have calm winds here and it is 32.9, but the places around us that have picked up 15-20mph southerlies are in the low 40s. But just down the road at 1200' it is still 27F. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 at Creswell. Home of Oregon Duck LEGEND Luke Jackson. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Down to 26.8…  

[Cloud]

I’d like Cliff to see there’s a glaze on my backyard pavement. And we recently moved to an area pretty much at SL.  No ice he says.  

[MossMan]

So this whole thing is just crazy! I just want ice and snow, hopefully those pretty colored maps so far this evening hold true for my area! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s precipitating! Doesn’t look like sleet but tiny ice pellets hitting the deck. 

I can't see anything falling, but I am seeing some "sparkles" on the back deck.  Someone a few miles to my east was reporting freezing drizzle on mPing.

[the_convergence_zone]

This looks like another win for the Euro and HRRR, both of which had freezing rain around Seattle but rain within the urban area close to water. As usual, my warm microclimate is just a little too much to get frozen precipitation. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

So this whole thing is just crazy! I just want ice and snow, hopefully those pretty colored maps so far this evening hold true for my area! 

You want ZR? Are you a masochist?  

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, MossMan said:

So this whole thing is just crazy! I just want ice and snow, hopefully those pretty colored maps so far this evening hold true for my area! 

it's rather dynamic indeed

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Down to 26.8…  

Crazy.   Sleet or rain down there?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Low quality image (thanks iPhone) but already a layer of ice on everything. However I believe in Cliff Mass since he said there is no way freezing rain is possible and I shouldn’t look outside

[Meatyorologist]

I bet it snows here tomorrow. I'm definitely noticing a southward shift compared to model guidance. Lows like these can compound errors fast if models are biased against or towards a steady rate of strengthening.

[bainbridgekid]

Down to 31 with freezing rain here. Cars starting to glaze over and the driveway was noticably slippery walking around. Still also some puddles and a liquid layer on top of the ice forming.

I've hardly ever experienced ZR so it's an interesting experience at this less impactful level.