January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SpaceRace22]

28 degrees with a solid half inch of ice coating everything now. Looks like some pretty heavy rain is about to move in, and I don't think we are going to thaw before then. Reeeeally happy we have underground power lines here.

[mtep]

Dumpage!

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The reason precip is so hard to predict with these is because The low develops at the last minute near Vancouver island.

the phase north and low placement has been modeled for a couple days,  that the short wave over BC would take over and a surface low would form over the Puget Sound, but looks like maybe the energy transferred further north than originally shown?

[Slushy Inch]

Change to snow imminent? Not that close to what euro had. Kind of matches NAM gfs and RGEm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

the phase north and low placement has been modeled for a couple days,  that the short wave over BC would take over and a surface low would form over the Puget Sound, but looks like maybe the energy transferred further north than originally shown?

I agree, It is looking very dynamic!

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... anyone want to watch live stream from Bellingham of dumping snow here is the link:

https://www.barkleyvillage.com/web-cams

I'll be heading there in about an hour for a PT appointment.  First time taking the new (to me) Subaru in the snow.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows that colder air aloft immediately following the low... this is just enough to flip it to snow up there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There will be surprises north of Seattle today. This reminds me of last year or year before, very close to the same with the shortwave.

[SpaceRace22]

17 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

He said that this was going to be an utter non-event and ice would not be forming. He was very, very, wrong. This is just one page of school closures out of like 6 pages for this morning. Even if you stick to the Seattle metro area, 90% of the districts are running late or are closed from north (Shoreline, 2hrs late) to south (Renton, 2 hrs late) to east/west (Issaquah closed, Highline 2hrs late).  While Seattle SD isn't running late (?) I took a look at their sub board and there are a metric ton of positions open so folks are not making it in. Clearly there was ice, and there was an impact city and county-wide from said ice. So yeah... Cliff Mass was very butt hurt on SM last night when folks called him out with actual on the ground data of ice, and didn't shift his "forecast". 

I do not understand that the hell that man's deal is. There's no doubt he's an incredibly intelligent and experienced professional, but his stubbornness and ability to occasionally disregard incredibly compelling evidence is odd.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows that colder air aloft immediately following the low... this is just enough to flip it to snow up there.

You can see how tricky this is today, even 20 miles south would make a big difference today.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There will be surprises north of Seattle today. This reminds me of last year or year before, very close to the same with the shortwave.

Very similar to the 12/20/22 system... just a little farther north.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I do not understand that the hell that mans deal is. There's no doubt he's an incredibly intelligence and experienced professional, but his stubbornness and ability to occasionally disregard incredibly compelling evidence is odd.

The answer is simple. Pride! 

[SpaceRace22]

More dog poo free ice pics. Also, the pond near the house is completely frozen solid now. Some kids were jumping on the ice trying to break it yesterday and they physically could not. Pretty impressive week this has been!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a winter wonderland in northern Whatcom County today.  I thought for sure there would be more snow in areas south of there today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I do not understand that the hell that mans deal is. There's no doubt he's an incredibly intelligence and experienced professional, but his stubbornness and ability to occasionally disregard incredibly compelling evidence is odd.

I think he REALLY likes to be the center of attention as the one voice that’s different but right, but it leads him to being different, crazy wrong, arrogant, and with an easily-bruised ego. And as he increasingly gets the reputation he earns, the persecution complex comes out.

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with a nice coating of ice here.  Probably about 0.2"  Amazing how slick the roads get with just that much.

[Mercurial]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM

 

Ugh

[T-Town]

Loving all the snow pics. Gonna have to live vicariously today because it’s 40 with light rain here. 

[MossMan]

I-5 is trying to slush up a bit now. 
I just got these pictures from the house. 
Better than a kick in the arse like it was looking to be. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM

 

No Bueno.  

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Change to snow imminent? Not that close to what euro had. Kind of matches NAM gfs and RGEm.

Wouldn’t go that far, can’t yet know how prolonged/complete the changeover will be at the surface, let alone accumulation. Will need to speed up for GFS et al to verify.

[FroYoBro]

Finally hit 33 degrees here. Definitely thawing out much slower than the forecast called for so far. Some dripping from the roofs now, but the melting is very slow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30.6˚F and dumping. Up to 8.7".

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

30.6˚F and dumping. Up to 8.7".

11-12 totals today?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I-5 is trying to slush up a bit now. 
I just got these pictures from the house. 
Better than a kick in the arse like it was looking to be. 

ECMWF showed you getting .5 to an inch up there.

[Mercurial]

>1” per hour snowfall rates ongoing… I am getting to the point where I am satisfied with this El Niño winter.  That said, I hate the look and feel of half melted slop and mud that are associated with pna ridges here.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF also shows SEA back down to 34 or 35 by 4 p.m.  but there isn't much precip left by then.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt something is trying to pop at the end of the month.  Last night's graph cast was getting there at the end of the run as well.  We need that MJO to stay strong into region 7.  The models are very uncertain about that right now.  A strong wave getting into 7 would probably make this work out.  If it collapses in 6 it will probably fall short.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

11-12 totals today?

Base on model guidance there’s about two hours left of the heavy stuff and it’s been coming down at a little over an inch an hour. So my forecast of 8–10" may bust low!

If it does, it will be my third winter in a row featuring a double-digit snowstorm.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF snow with the warm front tomorrow.  

@ShawniganLake is probably going to get a bunch more.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF showed you getting .5 to an inch up there.

I would have preferred pretty much any other models totals that were shown for me lol 

[Phil]

Everett southward, the change in CC (and bright banding) occurs when beam height ~ 1,000ft up. Which I assume is the altitude of the changeover (though some mixing likely below that).

 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I-5 is trying to slush up a bit now. 
I just got these pictures from the house. 
Better than a kick in the arse like it was looking to be. 

I thought you would get something.  I was thinking more though.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

30.6˚F and dumping. Up to 8.7".

yeah we're picking up here now. 2.5" and heaviest is still coming in the afternoon.  first time its been 20 degrees since the wee AM hours of last Thursday

[Omegaraptor]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM

 

Tim can cancel his Hawaii trip in that case. Hawaii will be coming to Tim.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF snow with the warm front tomorrow.  

@ShawniganLake is probably going to get a bunch more.

wow it sure dont like the idea of snow here with that. I feel confident for a few here. Upper levels will start out cold enough here and the offshore flow will be deeper.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM

 

1989 was actually an analog on last night's GFS run.  That worked out real nice for us afterward.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt something is trying to pop at the end of the month.  Last night's graph cast was getting there at the end of the run as well.  We need that MJO to stay strong into region 7.  The models are very uncertain about that right now.  A strong wave getting into 7 would probably make this work out.  If it collapses in 6 it will probably fall short.

Eh, climo response to phase-7 (WPAC) MJO deteriorates substantially by late-Jan. In tandem with recovering PV, smart odds are against any arctic air into the CONUS (IMO).

Climo response to phase-7 MJO Jan 21 & Jan 30, respectively:

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I thought you would get something.  I was thinking more though.

I for sure thought Mossman would wake up with 4-6 inches of snow today. 

[MossMan]

Ouch. Let kids have a little fun since it’s so rare to have a snow day. So dumb. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

wow it sure dont like the idea of snow here with that. I feel confident for a few here. Upper levels will start out cold enough here and the offshore flow will be deeper.

No doubt the depth of the cold is very important.  Last night it was very shallow.  Amazingly I'm still holding at about 33 here.  Paper thin layer of cold though.