January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I want to be driving in massive snow walls around here some day! 

not sure the infrastructure over here could handle that now, with all the suburban construction and paving over the aquifer.  it would have to be a SUPER slow melt off.  even the 10" we got last week flooded our yard and the swale out front when it melted a couple days ago  and it was low water content 20:1 snow

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not quite so wet here, either. Standing at 8.11" for the month. Though if the models are to be believed, I am about to get a lot more.

Think I am half of that so far for the month, need to check that when I get home today though. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Total storm total: 62 inches of snow over the last 12 days in Juneau

 

now rainnnnnn and soupy weather… good time go to Seattle for a class lol

[AlTahoe]

27 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I want to be driving in massive snow walls around here some day! 

I am assuming they would have to declare a state of emergency if that happened now days? That picture is wild 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looked fairly mild.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looked fairly mild.

Figured you’d be back to snipe from the peanut gallery if there were warmer runs.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Figured you’d be back to snipe from the peanut gallery if there were warmer runs.

Sorry about that.   Feel free to ignore data you don't like.  

It does show overnight lows getting pretty chilly at the end.    Assume that means its generally clear on this run at that time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That seems like a huge anomaly compared to nearby spots. Something to do with your location near the Hood Canal?

For sure and also i get upslope enhanced rain from green mountain to my NE. Other stations local are close to my numbers, i have to rain gauges and they are within 1 inch.

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looked fairly mild.

Another month and a half or so and then I will really be starting to look forward to this! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Another month and a half or so and then I will really be starting to look forward to this! 

I found a new plow attachment for you! URL Link 

[AbbyJr]

13 hours ago, Phil said:

May or may not work out in any given region, but it does seem likely we’ll see another round of high latitude blocking starting mid-Feb, as momentum loss begins and the pacific jet slows (waves break into AK and Greenland again).

Of course AAM will be higher than Jan event, and the PV will be stronger, so odds of a top-tier cold outbreak are lower, but it could still get interesting. But will probably be slightly more progressive overall.

The good news is that we don't need a top tier arctic blast from a PV lobe in order to get cold and snow down to the lower elevations in SWBC. February 2017 was one example of how a medicre outflow event still produced a very snowy pattern in the low elevations. In fact, Abbotsford recorded its highest snow depth since December 2008 during that event. While temperatures were marginal, many areas saw significant snowfall as a low pressure system stalled off the Washington coast and interacted with a modified arctic airmass. Run of the mill cold but top tier snowfall was the outcome.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I am assuming they would have to declare a state of emergency if that happened now days? That picture is wild 

What's worse than a "state of emergency?"  Whatever it is, that's what would be needed to describe those conditions...

 

Maybe it would be a state of "Oh fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu*k"

[SouthHillFrosty]

22 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

The good news is that we don't need a top tier arctic blast from a PV lobe in order to get cold and snow down to the lower elevations in SWBC. February 2017 was one example of how a medicre outflow event still produced a very snowy pattern in the low elevations. In fact, Abbotsford recorded its highest snow depth since December 2008 during that event. While temperatures were marginal, many areas saw significant snowfall as a low pressure system stalled off the Washington coast and interacted with a modified arctic airmass. Run of the mill cold but top tier snowfall was the outcome.

This is my all time favorite storm down here in the southern Puget Sound. Nobody got screwed (not even Fife lol) & everyone in western WA got at least 3-4 inches.

Edited January 25 by SouthHillFrosty

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I am assuming they would have to declare a state of emergency if that happened now days? That picture is wild 

Spokane Snowmeggedon in 2008 had 2' in 2 days, that strangled the place.  I didn't live here then but my neighbors have stories

[Phil]

Upper 60s here today despite low clouds and drizzle all day. Guidance missed low by 10°F

And tomorrow could reach mid-70s with upper 60s dews.  

[Phil]

13 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually looking like early Feb is when it will be cold.  Models are really running with the idea now.

Any legit cold/troughing will happen after the Canadian ridge retrogrades into AK. We’re still in the jet extension early Feb.

10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

What's really interesting is the positive tone here

I was worried we’d lose the MJO before it reached the phases constructive for momentum loss due to strengthening PV and stabilizing tropics. So I was getting bored. But it looks like it won’t be a total fail now. Though still not a sure thing.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I'm growing more confident we see some action next weekend. Hoping that isn't the last action and we get one more nice block setup. But 11" IMBY for a @Phil declared lost cause winter is pretty good in my book. If tomato season starts a little early, so be it. 

[Phil]

Save a weak negative anomaly in 2016, this is the first legitimate December -PMM since 2012.

Would be odd if the long, 11 year run of +PMM were broken during a strong niño winter.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm growing more confident we see some action next weekend. Hoping that isn't the last action and we get one more nice block setup. But 11" IMBY for a @Phil declared lost cause winter is pretty good in my book. If tomato season starts a little early, so be it. 

I never “declared” any such thing.  I just didn’t hop on the blind faith hype train.  

But “confidence” in a marginal setup 10+ days in advance seems..unwise. Unless there’s a clear reason behind it.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I never declared that, nor would I ever do so.

But “confidence” in a marginal setup 10+ days in advance seems..unwise. Unless there’s a clear reason behind it.

I just like "poking the bear"

Confidence is just a gut feeling, mostly for the "favored areas"

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I just like "poking the bear"

Confidence is just a gut feeling, mostly for the "favored areas"

Lol. Gut feelings are one thing, but I’d need a lot more than that to project *confidence*.  Otherwise it’s nothing more than a personal religion. 

[Phil]

I’m not bullish on early Feb in the NW because historically speaking, subpolar canadian blocking above STJ extensions tends to drive colder ULL/TPV features offshore into the GOA.

I’m more interested in what happens mid Feb onwards, when a more coherent Alaska block and -AO type pattern tries to establish while the jet begins retracting.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is my all time favorite storm down here in the southern Puget Sound. Nobody got screwed (not even Fife lol) & everyone in western WA got at least 3-4 inches.

I remember being super excited being under a winter storm warning for the first time in about 5 years! However I was a bit ticked that everyone to my south was once again getting nailed that winter while we were getting table scraps up here. Still a goodish little storm however. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

56 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I just like "poking the bear"

Confidence is just a gut feeling, mostly for the "favored areas"

I will pm you tonight, Building a transmission today.

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is my all time favorite storm down here in the southern Puget Sound. Nobody got screwed (not even Fife lol) & everyone in western WA got at least 3-4 inches.

This is a situation where geography makes a big difference. The February 2017 event Abby Jr was referring to was from the morning of Friday, Feb 3 -evening of Feb 4. It was a 36hr event with temps nominally below freezing. We got more snow Sunday, the 5th, then more snow per the posted model output. But most of the snow was Friday-Saturday, and namely the Fraser Valley & Whatcom County. That first shot of snow was what was memorable up here. Here’s pics I took that Sunday morning after that 36hr snowfall and a couple hours before another 4” fell. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is my all time favorite storm down here in the southern Puget Sound. Nobody got screwed (not even Fife lol) & everyone in western WA got at least 3-4 inches.

...Everyone except for me! That map may show pepto over my house, but it was raining until midnight and the rest only piled up an inch and a half. It was gone by noon 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is my all time favorite storm down here in the southern Puget Sound. Nobody got screwed (not even Fife lol) & everyone in western WA got at least 3-4 inches.

How much snow total did you end up with?

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

This is a situation where geography makes a big difference. The February 2017 event Abby Jr was referring to was from the morning of Friday, Feb 3 -evening of Feb 4. It was a 36hr event with temps nominally below freezing. We got more snow Sunday, the 5th, then more snow per the posted model output. But most of the snow was Friday-Saturday, and namely the Fraser Valley & Whatcom County. That first shot of snow was what was memorable up here. Here’s pics I took that Sunday morning after that 36hr snowfall and a couple hours before another 4” fell. 

I remember also being quite jealous of the action up north, we kept getting missed in my area that winter with all of the action either to the north or south…Just like this winter lol. 

Edited January 25 by MossMan

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

...Everyone except for me! That map may show pepto over my house, but it was raining until midnight and the rest only piled up an inch and a half. It was gone by noon 

No way really? I thought everyone got hammered. Dang

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much snow total did you end up with?

Ended up with about 9-10inches. I know some people measured 14in in Graham. School was cancelled that whole week since nobody plowed. 

[Meatyorologist]

The afternoon seems visibly brighter now than it was a munth ago. Global warming...

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The afternoon seems visibly brighter now than it was a munth ago. Global warming...

It’s coming. 

[Tyler Mode]

The midday sun at Barrow (Utqiagvik), Alaska...along with the full moon at the same time.

[Meatyorologist]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lock it in. 

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

The midday sun at Barrow (Utqiagvik), Alaska...along with the full moon at the same time.

actually this means It's Over

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Nice snowstorm for the willamette valley, especially mid valley on the 18z! Only 13 days out lol

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is my all time favorite storm down here in the southern Puget Sound. Nobody got screwed (not even Fife lol) & everyone in western WA got at least 3-4 inches.

As the map suggests, that storm was brutal for here. Hours and hours of heavy 34 degree rain with some token wet flakes splattered in the middle. Ended up about 10 minutes too far SE for the accumulations. There was a tiny warm tongue aloft that day that rode up over us and kept us from seeing the snow, even as we remained on the cold side of the low. And the Patriots did the whole 3-28 comeback thing to add insult to injury.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Nice snowstorm for the willamette valley, especially mid valley on the 18z! Only 13 days out lol

Score!!!

[umadbro]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Shift that north by about 50 miles. We’re overdue in Clark county.

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lock it in. 

75 miles south please.