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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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8 minutes ago, iFred said:

Weakened polar jet means shorter wavelengths, but also more opportune time for blocking, A warming north Pacific means that the axis of the ridge can shift further east. A delay in sea ice coverage in the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Strait means that the storm track can hug the SIberian coast, creating stronger lows with the beautiful mixture of dry Russian air and moist Japanese moistness. These lows then pump the just and the ridge. More tropical convective opportunities because of that warmer air means more opportunities for Kona lows which help build that ridge even further and can be useful in anchoring it. Then we have our friend the North Atlantic which also being warmer, encourages larger sprawling highs that help squeeze air out of the arctic. Then we have the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Later snowcover and lake ice mean that the storm track is further inland, allowing for an effective wall to slow any eastward progression of our cold air friend.

Lastly, as @Meatyorologist had pointed out a while ago, if we manage to get air on the western side of the Rockies, it can not only stay strapped, but at lower levels it can linger, provided that the Pacific is weak, something expected with climate change.

All of this is a bit of conjecture, a paper I read on air currents, and anecdotal evidence from the past decade of this forum, where our summers are warmer and drier, and our winters seem to be prone to more extremes.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know from a few of you, some of whom I respect and would like to get a beer to bond over our shared love of cold, snow, ice, dark Pacific Northwest winters, will have to say that I am being "CNN Fred", a liberal loon who is pushing some global warming agenda, and you'd mostly be right. If you want to argue that aspect, meet me in the Off Topic forum.

Wow! Well I was mostly expecting "What a weenie" but this response will do too. 🤣

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6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Weakened polar jet means shorter wavelengths, but also more opportune time for blocking, A warming north Pacific means that the axis of the ridge can shift further east. A delay in sea ice coverage in the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Strait means that the storm track can hug the SIberian coast, creating stronger lows with the beautiful mixture of dry Russian air and moist Japanese moistness. These lows then pump the just and the ridge. More tropical convective opportunities because of that warmer air means more opportunities for Kona lows which help build that ridge even further and can be useful in anchoring it. Then we have our friend the North Atlantic which also being warmer, encourages larger sprawling highs that help squeeze air out of the arctic. Then we have the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Later snowcover and lake ice mean that the storm track is further inland, allowing for an effective wall to slow any eastward progression of our cold air friend.

Lastly, as @Meatyorologist had pointed out a while ago, if we manage to get air on the western side of the Rockies, it can not only stay strapped, but at lower levels it can linger, provided that the Pacific is weak, something expected with climate change.

All of this is a bit of conjecture, a paper I read on air currents, and anecdotal evidence from the past decade of this forum, where our summers are warmer and drier, and our winters seem to be prone to more extremes.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know from a few of you, some of whom I respect and would like to get a beer to bond over our shared love of cold, snow, ice, dark Pacific Northwest winters, will have to say that I am being "CNN Fred", a liberal loon who is pushing some global warming agenda, and you'd mostly be right. If you want to argue that aspect, meet me in the Off Topic forum.

I think much of this conjecture (as you put it) is very possible...but it's also very possible that a lot of what we've seen is also due to natural pattern oscillations and changes.

why-not-both-why-not.gif

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A forum for the end of the world.

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12 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note."

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html

A spot? he needs to stop drinking.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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55 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Unfortunately it’s very unlikely anything but freezing rain falls with this south of Everett. It’s just too warm in the mid to upper levels to support snowfall. Up north it’s colder in the mid levels of the atmosphere which is why they have a good shot at some snowfall with this. 

Oh, I know that snow is completely out of the picture, I just want some sort of messy as heck transition between the delightful but useless cold of the weekend to our usual status quo of rain and 40ish... slush would be fine, or sleet. Even freezing rain at this point. Just a wee little glaze to make me feel better when I get the bill from the HOA for our busted pipes rather than the bupkis that we currently have. I mean, the ground is literally frozen and there are no sun angles and we still got nothing! A messy transition isn't too much to ask for, right?!? 🤣🙄  

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A spot? he needs to stop drinking.

He needs retire is what he needs to do…And unplug from any weather posting abilities. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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35 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Roads here are still not bare pavement from the snow we got last week. Lewiston sold their snow plows a few years ago and boy Lewiston/Clarkston side roads are way worse than mine. 

sold their snowplows?  wow, that's dumb, even for the banana belt

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14 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

It seems like the NWS and other popular online weather commentators have really been placing an emphasis on communicating uncertainty these last few years. Cliff appears to have taken the opposite approach.

Yeah, it's weird, because after the 2016 wind bust, he was very much taking about how forecasters needed to get better about expressing the probabilities of something happening rather than just telling the most likely forecast. He uses words to hedge or equivocate, but then uses other words expressing certainty. It doesn't align with what he says mets need to do. 

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Sounds like every summer evening up here. It is a rare summer evening that it’s not below 60F by midnight. Even in our hottest summers it happens at most 5 times.

Crazy. What’s your location. Sounds like you might be much farther north. Perhaps very close to some sort of large body of saltwater?

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Up to 31 now. Water pouring off the house as the gutters are frozen solid. Looks like a nearby station at 1900' just bumped to 34. It's coming y'all!

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, MilwaukieOpal said:

I have been watching this forum for a couple days now. I’m new but you all have been very informative. It’s coming down pretty good as freezing rain in Gladstone/Milwaukie area. 

Nice to see another from my area.  It’s a finicky weather location at times. Welcome in.  
29 and ZR at the moment in Gladstone.  

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Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Already a roll over on I-5 at the fairgounds exit  9 in Clark County, driver is DOA :(

Brutal. Not excited about my wife attempting to commute home from Portland tonight. She'll probably get mandated, but if she's not she'll try to make it home... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yes I’m psycho….But wouldn’t it be amazing to get at least a half inch of ice and then a foot of snow on top of it!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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26.5 here just east of Hubbard with moderate rain. Definitely pooling happening on the ice which is surprising. trees have a glaze and my bamboo is already leaning over. What time is the warm up? lol 

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Just now, Randyc321 said:

No it's not Tim.

You beat it by consistently doing this.

I have posted literally everything with this upcoming event.   Lots of snowy runs.   If you don't want to see the data then close your eyes and scroll by it.   That is a very valid map in terms of analyzing this situation.    Thanks for input though!   I am not ever going to be someone that doesn't look at the entire picture.  It is what it is.   That low position is awesome for northern folks.   Just because it might be bad news for you doesn't mean some people don't want to see it.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

Oh, I know that snow is completely out of the picture, I just want some sort of messy as heck transition between the delightful but useless cold of the weekend to our usual status quo of rain and 40ish... slush would be fine, or sleet. Even freezing rain at this point. Just a wee little glaze to make me feel better when I get the bill from the HOA for our busted pipes rather than the bupkis that we currently have. I mean, the ground is literally frozen and there are no sun angles and we still got nothing! A messy transition isn't too much to ask for, right?!? 🤣🙄  

We will probably get some sleet/freezing rain at the very least. The sleet reports down south make me think that could be in the cards this evening. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We will probably get some sleet/freezing rain at the very least. The sleet reports down south make me think that could be in the cards this evening. 

I still think you might some snow at some point. Going to be interesting. What i'm watching is how much cold air gets back in here after this low departs the area. Thursday has a shot.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes I’m psycho….But wouldn’t it be amazing to get at least a half inch of ice and then a foot of snow on top of it!!! 

for preservation you'd want that to happen the other way around

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